NBA Daily Punts: March 10, 2014
Hope you all enjoyed the weekend, but it’s back to the grind ladies and gentlemen! Seven games await us on this Monday night, and it seems like a night of basketball that might be tough to watch with most of the teams in action fighting for ping pong balls instead of playoff seeding. I’m sticking with the format from a few weeks ago where I’ll list out several potential value plays at both FanDuel and DraftKings, since there aren’t players at each position that I like tonight.
In order to be considered a “punt,” a player must meet Bargain Bin Baller status on either FanDuel ($5500), DraftStreet ($9500) or DraftKings ($4500).
FanDuel
Raymond Felton – $5,600 – He’s facing the Sixers. I’m not sure how much more I need to say at this point, but Felton is underpriced for the match-up and as long as he plays 30-32+ minutes, he’ll pay off this price tag. Felton has been really up and down lately which might scare some people off him in cash games, but I’m pulling the trigger at this price. He’s also just 9.2K on DraftStreet, so he’ll be a popular play over there for sure.
Joe Johnson – $5,400 – The match-up with Toronto isn’t great, but JJ has been surprisingly consistent over the past week. He’s put up solid numbers against both Memphis and Chicago over that time period, so he should find the sledding a little easier in a match-up with a faster-paced offense. Johnson is more of a GPP play for me since he’s certainly capable of a dud and the DvP (TOR is 5th against SG’s over the last 15 days, 14th on the season) doesn’t make him look like a “safe” option tonight. He’d get a nice boost if Paul Pierce were to sit, as would Andray Blatche.
Kyle Korver – $4,600 – I prefer Korver over Johnson if you’re going to punt the SG spot in a cash game, since you save $800 and the floor for both players is about the same. Korver actually spent some time with the Jazz in his career so you can call it a revenge game if you’d like, but I just like the match-up for him in general. Korver has posted a few down games recently, but those performances came in blow-outs and this one should stay close until the end(the Hawks are 1.5 point favorites).
Chris Douglas-Roberts – $4,000 – As long as Gerald Henderson is out again tonight, CDR is a nice cash game punt that should be able to pay off his low price tag against the Nuggets. Denver has been playing really poor defense as a team, and this could be a nice spot to use 2-3 Bobcats in your lineups tonight. The Nuggets are playing their third game in four nights, and as long as CDR gets his 30+ minutes, he’ll pay off the 4K salary matched up with Randy Foye.
Iman Shumpert – $3,600 – It would make me a little too nervous to roster him in a cash game, but the price is pretty intriguing considering the opponent. Shump is just $100 above the minimum, and he finally got back to playing more then 30 minutes in Saturday’s game against the Cavs. Tim Hardaway Jr. is also sitting at $3,600 so he’s in play for tournaments as well, but it’s just really hard to figure out where the minutes will go between these two tonight.
J.R. Smith – $5,500 – Smith hasn’t been paying off his price too often over the last few weeks, but a match-up with the Sixers definitely has the potential to push him over the top. His minutes have been fairly steady in games that stay close, but this one has the potential to get out of hand with the Sixers coming to MSG. It’ll be hard for me to play him in a cash game but his upside is great enough in this match-up that he’s certainly a nice tournament play.
Amir Johnson – $5,200 – Patrick Patterson will miss a few games with his elbow injury, which opens up the door for Amir to play a few more minutes each night. He didn’t see a boost in production last night compared to his recent logs, but he did play north of 30 minutes which is encouraging considering his price point. He gets a match-up with an undersized Brooklyn front-court that can struggle to rebound at times, so I think Amir actually makes a decent play in both cash games and tournaments at this price.
Maurice Harkless – $4,600 – If Oladipo is forced to sit out against Milwaukee, Harkless would become a nice play for just $4,600. He’s impressed Jacque Vaughn enough recently to maintain a meaningful role even when guys like Oladipo, Afflalo, Harris and Nelson are healthy, but I’m not sure I’d take the risk on him if all four suit up tonight. Check out our twitter feed/NBA lineup alerts for an update on Oladipo later in the day.
Amare Stoudemire – $4,200 – After a disappointing game against the Jazz (albeit in a blowout), Amar’e got back on track against the Cavs and he’s in an even better spot tonight against Philly. The Sixers struggle to defend all five positions on the floor, but the only concern I have with Amar’e is that the Knicks could opt to take it easy on him like they did in the match-up with Utah. The Knicks are 16 point favorites as of this writing, so the starters might not see the floor in the 4th quarter.
DraftKings
Shaun Livingston – Paul Pierce and Andrei Kirilenko are both dealing with injuries, and if they were both to sit out tonight, Livingston would become a very nice value at $3,800 even in a tough match-up against the Raptors. It’s hard to consistently count on any of the Nets, and the minutes of Pierce/Kirilenko could just as easily go to JJ, Blatche and Marcus Thornton, so we’ll need to wait until closer to tip-off to get a better idea of the situation in Brooklyn.
P.J. Tucker – $4,500 – Tucker is surprisingly one of my favorite SF’s to use in GPP’s, since he’s usually around the BBB cutoff and can post some big numbers when he’s out there for a full compliment of minutes. In Thursday’s meeting with this same LAC team, Tucker racked up 18 and 10 in 39 minutes on the floor, and while I don’t expect him to replicate those numbers, I think he makes a nice GPP play in what is likely to be another close, fast-paced game.
Chris Douglas-Roberts – $3,700 – As long as Gerald Henderson is out, CDR is a very nice punt play in both tournaments and cash games in a very nice match-up with the Nuggets. Denver is somehow ranked 4th against SG’s over the past 15 days, but that number doesn’t mean a thing to me after watching a few of their games recently.
Amare Stoudemire – $4,500 – It’s the Sixers. Everyone is in play. Despite the 16 point spread, I’ll have exposure to most of the Knicks starting five tonight and while I’d rather play Amar’e on FanDuel, he makes a fine play over here on DraftKings as well.
Khris Middleton – $4,400 – I’m always a little hesitant to recommend anyone on Milwaukee, but a game against the almost equally inept Magic should leave DFS owners with some interesting decisions. There is no way I’m rostering him in a cash game, but I do think he’s a decent GPP option against a weak Magic defense.
Kyle O’Quinn – $4,100 – The Bucks are among the worst rebounding teams in the league, and O’Quinn is a very solid rebounder. His start against the Spurs didn’t lead to increased playing time and I highly doubt he gets another one tonight, but he’s more then capable of paying off this number in 20-23 minutes against this front-court.
Timofey Mozgov – $3,800 – I’m hoping that Shaw uses Mozgov a bit more tonight to help defend Al Jefferson, which seems likely considering Hickson and Faried don’t have a chance at slowing him down. Mozgov went for 15 and 14 against the Bobcats a little over a month ago, and that was while he was still coming off the bench. At $3,800, he’s got a lot of upside tonight.