NBA Daily Punts - March 14: Mega Crossover Edition
Happy Friday Grinders! In case you’re unaware, the DraftKings Mega Crossover tips off tonight, where the top 100 finishers all take home $1,000, so I’m going to make this a DK-specific article for today. It’s $27 to enter, which basically equates to a huge 37x tournament, which is pretty awesome in my opinion. We have a ten-game slate to choose from tonight which means we’ll have to dig pretty deep to some off-the-radar punt plays.
In order to be considered a “punt,” a player must meet Bargain Bin Baller status on either FanDuel ($5500), DraftStreet ($9500) or DraftKings ($4500).
Guards
Victor Oladipo – $5,500 – I’m going to stretch the pricing criteria a bit since we’re sticking to DK, and the upside Oladipo offers at $5,500 is certainly intriguing in a tournament like the Mega Crossover. He needs an injury to Nelson/Afflalo to secure his minutes, but the fact that Orlando is relatively healthy will probably lead to him being underowned tonight. The rookie was able to stay on the court for 28 minutes against Denver after playing just 19 in his return from a two-game absence, and after another day of rest yesterday it’s possible he gets back to playing 30+ against Washington. I won’t be playing him too heavily across my DraftKings lineups considering he’s still coming off the bench, but I’m going to make sure I have some exposure to him.
George Hill – $5,400 – The Indiana/Philly game will probably make or break a lot of lineups tonight, considering the appealing prices of Paul George and Lance Stephenson. This is a price I wouldn’t typically pay for George Hill, but if this game stays relatively close (which I’m not really counting on) and Hill plays his normal allotment of minutes, he could blow this price tag out of the water in this match-up. To be fair, I’m going to have more exposure to Lance Stephenson for just $800 more, but I think a lot of the field will be doing the same thing, which would be great news for Hill owners if Lance under-performs.
Gerald Henderson – $4,400 – This is more of a price-point play then anything else, because it’s not often you can find a player who averages over 25 FP’s at this salary. Henderson and the Bobcats take on a fast-paced Wolves team that should lead to a few extra possessions for Charlotte, and this is actually one of my favorite games to stack tonight if your into that sort of thing. Most of the field will probably overlook Henderson since he’s coming off an injury and didn’t cross the 30 minute mark in his first game back, but I love the match-up for him against Kevin Martin.
Steve Blake – $4,400 – Klay Thompson is away from the team for tonight’s game, and it appears that Harrison Barnes will enter the starting lineup in his place. Even though he’s not expected to start, Blake will see a nice boost in playing time with Thompson out and Curry banged up, and Barnes getting the nod as the starter will surely scare a chunk of the field away from Blake.
Patty Mills – $3,400 – The Lakers played last night and were basically run out of the gym by Westbrook, Ibaka and Durant, and now they have to travel the short distance to San Antonio to take on the Spurs. I have a really hard time imagining LA keeping this one close for very long, which could very well lead to some nice junk time numbers for Mills. He’s actually paid this price off a few times recently in under 20 minutes, and I’d be pretty surprised if he couldn’t do it in this match-up with a few extra junk time minutes. If you’re rolling out a handful of Mega Crossover lineups, get Mills in a few of them as he’ll provide cap relief and is one of the few players priced this low with 40 FP upside.
Xavier Henry – $3,000 – Henry is still minimum priced, but he’s scored at least 23.25 FP’s in three of his last four games. He didn’t have his shot falling last night (he was just 3 of 14 from the field), but I love the upside for him even in a tough match-up with San Antonio. He could very well be a beneficiary of the blowout if that comes to fruition. Don’t go crazy with your Henry exposure, but throwing him in a lineup or two at this price to fit Kevin Love or LeBron could prove to be worthwhile.
Forwards
Ryan Kelly – $4,100 – He’ll be a pretty popular play tonight, but he’s probably my favorite punt at the forward spot even in an unfriendly match-up. Kelly has exceeded 30 FP’s in his last three games now that he’s worked his way back into a big role in the rotation, and he’s usually a safe bet for 30+ minutes as a starter.
P.J. Tucker – $4,700 – After missing Wednesday’s game due to a suspension, he’ll be back in the starting lineup against the Celtics tonight. Tucker is as boom or bust as anyone in the league, but his upside is huge for this price. With Bledsoe also in the starting lineup and Gerald Green being deserving of minutes, Tucker could be overlooked since his minutes are not nearly as safe as they were before Bledsoe returned. The risk is big with a guy like Tucker tonight, but the upside is also very big if his minutes don’t take a dive.
Wesley Johnson – $4,400 – I never seem to be able to get Johnson right, but he’s still a big part of the rotation and he can really stuff the stat sheet when he’s on. He’s actually a little like Tucker in that both are extremely volatile, but Johnson hasn’t flashed Tucker’s upside recently with Ryan Kelly re-emerging for D’Antoni. I’d much rather roster Kelly or Tucker at similar prices, but Johnson is worth throwing into a lineup or two if your rolling out a bunch of different teams in the Mega Crossover.
Thomas Robinson and Dorell Wright – $3,000 – LaMarcus Aldridge is out for at least the next few games, and the match-up with the Pelicans could very well lead to a start for Robinson tonight. Dorell Wright was getting the nod as the starter a few weeks ago when Aldridge was out, but with Ajinca and Davis starting for New Orleans, the Blazers will probably roll with Robinson (or possibly Meyers Leonard) alongside Robin Lopez. Wright and Robinson will both be needed to help fill the void of LMA, it’s just a matter of picking the right one tonight. Especially in a big GPP like this one, I’ll take the upside that Robinson offers.
Harrison Barnes – $4,100 – Barnes practiced with the first unit during shootaround today, which seems to indicate that he will get the nod for Klay Thompson tonight. He’ll be matched up with Jarrett Jack to start and he should be able to take advantage of that, and with Curry a bit banged up I’m not as worried about the minutes at SG being split up between Barnes, Blake and Crawford. If I’m deciding between Barnes and Blake, I’ll take the $300 discount and roll with the starter.
Centers
Robin Lopez – $5,200 – I absolutely love this price for Lopez with LMA out of the lineup, and he’ll find himself on quite a few of my Mega Crossover teams tonight. He’ll play as many minutes as he can handle in order for the Blazers to match-up with The Brow and the other Pelicans bigs, and he should see a few extra shot attempts/rebounds with only Robinson, Wright and Leonard fighting for minutes down low. He provides you with a nice mix of a high ceiling and high floor at this price tag.
Henry Sims – $4,100 – If you’re rostering him expecting Wednesday night’s performance, don’t bother. Not that Hibbert is a big offensive threat or anything, but the Sixers will need Sims to body him up down low, because it’s not like Byron Mullens or Jarvis Varnado is capable of taking on that task. Hibbert is a stronger defender then DMC, so don’t expect him to come close to matching the offensive output from Wednesday, but his defensive stats can still pay off the $4,100 price tag if he crosses the 30 minute mark.
Enes Kanter – $5,500 – This news broke as I was writing this and it’s still not 100% clear at this time, but it looks like Marvin Williams will miss tonight’s game and Kanter is expected to start in his place. If so, the $5,500 price tag makes him an intriguing GPP option against a Clippers team that has struggled defending opposing centers as long as this game stays relatively close. I’ll have to rework a lineup or two to fit Kanter in if he is announced as a starter.
Note – I’d prefer Robin Lopez over Kanter if deciding between the two.. saw that quite a few people tweeted at us with that question so figured I’d answer it here as well.