NBA Daily Punts: March 24, 2014
We have 10 games on the schedule tonight, which is a very nice total for a Monday. It’s kind of surprising that there isn’t a whole lot of obvious value on such a busy night, but at this point in the season there is always the chance that we get saddled with a bunch of injury news close to roster lock. The trickiest of tonight’s games is probably the Spurs/Sixers match-up… San Antonio should be able to run this team out of the gym, but the question becomes how much of Duncan and Parker do we see? With this game tipping off at 8:30 EST, there is a chance we don’t know much about this game by roster lock on FanDuel/DraftStreet.
I’m going to stick to FanDuel tonight since we’ll have some content focusing solely on the DraftKings Bank Shot over the next few days. I’ll go position-by-position but if a player also has an appealing price on one of the other major sites, I’ll make a note of it.
In order to be considered a “punt,” a player must meet Bargain Bin Baller status on either FanDuel ($5500), DraftStreet ($9500) or DraftKings ($4500).
Point Guards
Trey Burke – $5,500 ($10.3K on DS) – I really like taking point guards against the Pistons, and that will not change tonight. Burke has been up and down all season and he’s definitely a little hard to trust, but he’s got the perfect storm going for him tonight; he’s better at home (where this game will be played), he’s already lit up the Pistons once this year, and Alec Burks is out (which secures his minutes as Burks is really the only scoring option at guard off the bench). In his only other game against this Detroit team, he posted 20 points, 12 assists, 3 boards and 2 steals, and that game was played on the road. I don’t buy into one good game too heavily, and I’m not expecting him to match that stat line again tonight, but he does have a ton of upside for the $5,500 price tag. I’ll certainly have some exposure to him tonight and this might be a rare day where I actually trust him as a cash game option.
Mario Chalmers – $4,900 – Dwyane Wade is not expected to play tonight, so Chalmers gets a bump in value along with the usual suspects (LeBron, Bosh, Ray Allen). The Blazers struggle against opposing point guards (28th against the position on the season, 27th over the last 15 days) and Chalmers should be in line for big minutes with Wade out of the lineup. He doesn’t need to do a whole lot to pay off this price tag and I think he’s in play for cash games as well as your tournament lineups.
Shaun Livingston – $4,500 ($4,300 on DK) – Livingston has been consistently crossing the 30 minute mark and hasn’t scored under 20 FP’s in any of his last eight games. I think he’s a little safer then Chalmers when you take into account the $400 discount and he’s a very solid bet to pay off this price tag again tonight. He could also pick up a few extra minutes of playing time if Kidd takes it easy on any of his veterans on the second night of a back-to-back.
Shelvin Mack – $3,900 ($3,300 on DK, $6,533 on DS) – If Kyle Korver is out again tonight, Mack will draw another start in a game that should be among the highest scoring of the night. This Phoenix/Atlanta game is actually my favorite target of the night, and this is a decent way to get cheap exposure. I probably won’t roll him out on FD (he’s PG eligible but will see almost all of his time at SG if Korver sits), but I do like the price on both DK and DS. Korver is questionable as of this writing, so stay up on his status if you are interested in playing Mack.
Shooting Guards
Gerald Henderson – $5,200 – Henderson is a frustrating player to use because he can disappear from the box score at times with Big Al and Kemba controlling the rock as much as any other duo in the league, but the match-up with James Harden is tough to ignore. Kemba will be dealing with the pesky defense of Patrick Beverley, so Henderson could see a bump in shot attempts if Kemba isn’t able to find room to operate. He’s still priced at somewhat of a discount and considering the Bobcats will be playing up in pace, he’s certainly worthy of GPP consideration tonight.
The Spurs Wing Players – This doesn’t include Kawhi Leonard because he’s too expensive, but he’s obviously the preferred option at the wing against Philly. However, it seems like one of the three SG options (Manu Ginobili, Danny Green and Marco Belinelli) could be a big time difference maker in GPP’s this evening, but choosing the right one is not an easy task. Green is my favorite of the bunch tonight ($4,700 on FD) since he can fill up the box score when he gets hot, but we’ll need to see if Pop decides to rest any of his starters before we can pinpoint the top targets on San Antonio.
Ray Allen – $4,300 ($4,300 on DK) – Wade is not expected to play, so Allen will see a little extra run against the Blazers (although he’s been right around 30 minutes a night lately even with Wade in the lineup). He has 30 FP upside with Wade out of the lineup and if you don’t want to pay for any of the higher priced SG options, Allen is a decent punt play. I don’t love the match-up for him but he can be productive against any opponent if his jumper is falling.
Giannis Antetokounmpo – $4,000 ($3,700 on DK, $7,544 on DS) – Nate Wolters is probably done for the year, which opens up the starting SG spot for the Alphabet. He didn’t get much going in his start against the Kings last night, but he can contribute across the board and his poor game last night will probably scare some people off him. He’s not a guy I can really trust in a cash lineup but he certainly has GPP appeal tonight.
Austin Rivers – $3,800 ($3,200) – Rivers is only in play if Eric Gordon sits, but either way I would not want him in any of my cash game lineups. He wouldn’t get the start if Gordon can’t go, but he could cross the 25 minute mark if he plays well off the bench, and that could be enough for him to pay off his near minimum DK price tag (where I could see using him as a GPP play).
Small Forwards
Dorell Wright – $4,000 ($4,000 on DK) – LaMarcus Aldridge won’t return tonight, so Wright will continue to start at the 4 against Miami. The match-up isn’t great, but he’s been paying this price off recently outside of a poor game against the Bucks about a week ago. He only needs about 20-25 FP’s to pay off this price tag.
Jeff Adrien – $4,600 ($3,800 on DK) – Nothing has been announced as of this writing, but Ersan Ilyasova is likely to sit out on the second night of a back-to-back. As we’ve seen a few times recently, Adrien can be a great GPP play on the nights where either Ersan or Henson sits out, and his price tag on DraftKings is especially appealing. He could also see extra playing time if this one turns into a blowout, so his avenues to fantasy success are open tonight. You’ll want him in a GPP lineup or two in this match-up if Ilyasova sits.
Power Forwards
John Henson – $5,100 ($9,814 on DS) – If Ilyasova sits, Henson would almost certainly draw the start at PF and while foul trouble is definitely a concern, it’s hard to argue with the upside he offers at this price. The Clippers have given up some big games to opposing big men this season, and while he’s tough to trust in cash games, his upside will lead to him being a fairly popular play (especially on DS) if Ersan sits.
Boris Diaw – $4,400 ($3,900 on DK, $7,109 on DS) – It’s really tough to analyze the Spurs at this point without knowing what Pop will do with his starters, but if Duncan ends up sitting out, Diaw would become a great option on all three major sites. He’s not necessarily a player that benefits from a fast-paced game, but his upside would be immense in this match-up if Duncan sat due to the combination of price and opportunity.
Darrell Arthur – $3,800 ($3,200 on DK) – I wouldn’t use him in any format if Wilson Chandler ends up playing, but if he is out (in addition to Hickson), Arthur would be an intriguing near minimum price play. He outperformed Anthony Randolph yesterday and he’s the better player between the two as it is, so he’s a nice bottom of the barrel option that can help you pay up for one of the big guns tonight.
Center
Gorgui Dieng – $5,200 ($5,000 on DK) – If Pekovic is out (he’s doubtful as of this writing), Dieng would be the top center punt across the industry. His price has skyrocketed on some sites (he’s almost $14K on DS), but he’s a very intriguing play even in a tough match-up on sites that haven’t adjusted his price too heavily. We’ve seen the upside he has with big minutes and the Wolves will need his size to help match-up with Gasol and Randolph.
Tiago Splitter – $5,000 – If Duncan sits, Splitter would also see a nice boost in value and considering Philly is amongst the worst rebounding teams in the NBA, he could pay off this price tag even if the Spurs stick with the typical starters. Henry Sims has been a formidable option down low for Philly and he’s actually competed well against some of the better big men in the league lately, but that’s not enough to scare me off of Splitter. Pay close attention to the news surrounding Duncan/Parker/Ginobili if you are considering rostering any of the secondary options on the team.