NBA DFS Core Plays LIVE: Thursday, March 16th
Andy Means (meansy53), a former Duke basketball walk-on, will be bringing Premium subscribers his top NBA DFS plays to build around on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays. Everyone’s favorite, Notorious, will be guiding you on Tuesdays and Thursdays. And on weekends, the GPP maestro you all know and love, STLCards, takes the reins.
GENERAL SLATE THOUGHTS
11:00 AM ET: Happy March Madness day everyone! The NCAA Tournament is amazing and I can’t wait to watch all of the games the next two days, but the start of the tournament also aligns with the start of Girl Scout Cookies. It’s officially thin mint SZN. I’m not a big sweets guy or even a big eater in general, but I love me some thin mints. I miss the comments section because I love when people call me out for my strange takes, but thin mints being the best Girl Scout Cookie is not up for debate. You can’t argue facts.
We have five NBA games on the schedule tonight and only one team is playing in the second half of a back-to-back (Kings). This may not be the most enticing slate for the casual DFS player, as two of the games feature a spread of at least 13 points and four of the five games feature a spread of at least six points. Add in the distraction of the NCAA tournament and we could have some overlay and/or some weaker competition tonight. This is one of those slates where a little extra research and effort could go a long way.
Here’s a quick preview of the 10 teams in action tonight:
Denver: The Nuggets have lost four games in a row and now have a losing record on the road (16-17) for the season, so they will be happy to see the Pistons on their schedule tonight. The Nuggets are expected to have everyone available and they should have no problem scoring against a team that is ranked 28th in defensive rating. The Nuggets have an implied total that is 4.5 points higher than their season average. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray project the best here and both are strong options on this small slate.
Detroit: With a Rockets win last night, the Pistons now have the best worst record in the NBA. Yes, I wrote best worst because they are in a race to the bottom and they are currently winning. They are going to be extremely short-handed again tonight, but the sites have done a nice job of correcting the salaries of each player. A matchup against the Nuggets is mediocre, as Denver is ranked 20th in pace and 18th in defensive rating. Killian Hayes is my favorite target here, as the Nuggets have long struggled to defend point guards.
Oklahoma City: The Thunder have won three games in a row and are back in the playoff picture in the Western Conference. A strong finish could result in a top five feed and a poor finish could mean missing the postseason completely. Tonight they travel to Toronto to take on the Raptors, who are ranked 25th in pace and 17th in defensive rating. It’s not the best spot as a whole and the Thunder are healthy for the most part. Josh Giddey has been playing well and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is slightly underpriced on DraftKings ($9,600), but I wouldn’t call either a priority tonight.
Toronto: The Raptors seem a lot better than they really are. They are currently 33-36 in the standings and are in danger of falling out of the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference. Tonight they host the Thunder, who are ranked third in pace and ninth in defensive rating. The best way to attack the Thunder has been with a talented point guard (Fred VanVleet) or a talented big (Pascal Siakam, Jakob Poeltl), so the matchup sets up best for those three players in particular.
Sacramento: The Kings have won eight of their last 10 games and are now tied with the Grizzlies for the second best record in the Western Conference. With Ja Morant suspended the next couple of weeks, the Kings have a real chance to secure the two seed in this stacked conference. Tonight they square off against the Nets, who are ranked fifth in pace and 11th in defensive rating over the last 10 games. It’s a decent spot overall, but Domantas Sabonis is the only player with a positive RG Value. The matchup does set up well for him, as the Nets are the worst rebounding team in the league.
Brooklyn: The Nets have lost five of their last 10 games, but they have managed to stay out of the play-in tournament seedings for now. They are currently two games ahead of the Heat for the sixth seed in the East. Tonight they host the Kings, who are one of the best possible matchups for fantasy production, ranking ninth in pace and 25th in defensive rating. I’ve been avoiding Brooklyn for the most part in recent weeks, but will be targeting them heavily tonight. Spencer Dinwiddie, Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, and Nic Claxton all project well in this spot.
Indiana: The Pacers have won six of their last 10 games and are now only one game behind the Wizards for the last spot in the play-in tournament. I’m rooting for them to make the playoffs, but they have a tough task in front of them tonight. The Bucks are the best team in basketball right now and the Pacers could be without a number of key players once again. Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield, Myles Turner, and T.J. McConnell are all listed as questionable. The Pacers could provide us with some much needed value on this slate.
Milwaukee: The Bucks have won eight of their last 10 games and now have the best record in basketball by a sizable margin. They are three games ahead of the Celtics and Sixers in the loss column. They draw an exploitable matchup tonight against the Pacers, who are ranked 25th in defensive rating and 28th in rebounding rate. This game does have blowout potential, but that’s something we have to live with on a slate this size.
Orlando: The Magic have lost six of their last 10 games and will soon be eliminated from playoff contention in the East. They have a lot of talent and have been competitive at times this season, but they are a couple years away from making some real noise (although we’ve been saying that about the Magic for 10 years now). A matchup against the Suns is far from ideal and the Magic are expected to be at full strength. I’m not looking to force anyone on this team into my DFS rosters.
Phoenix: The Suns were looking like a championship team a week ago and then Kevin Durant got hurt in the layup line. They have struggled ever since. They will look to snap their three-game losing streak tonight against the Magic, who are ranked close to league average in pace, defensive rating, and rebounding rate. Even without KD in the lineup, this isn’t a team that projects very well outside of Chris Paul, Devin Booker, and Deandre Ayton.
Here’s a quick rundown of the notable injuries for the slate:
Out
Isaiah Livers
Marvin Bagley
Bojan Bogdanovic
Isaiah Stewart
Hamidou Diallo
Alec Burks
Cade Cunningham
Aleksej Pokusevski
Kenrich Williams
Ben Simmons
Bennedict Mathurin
Chris Duarte
Jonathan Isaac
Kevin Durant
Landry Shamet
Questionable
Tyrese Haliburton
Myles Turner
Buddy Hield
T.J. McConnell
Gary Harris
NOTE: The closer we get to the slate locking, the less likely it is that I will have the necessary time to update the tables below. For the most up-to-date information, make sure you are watching Crunch Time and monitoring LineupHQ for my Core Play tags and our Premium NBA Projections.