NBA DFS Core Plays LIVE: Thursday, March 9th
Andy Means (meansy53), a former Duke basketball walk-on, will be bringing Premium subscribers his top NBA DFS plays to build around on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays. Everyone’s favorite, Notorious, will be guiding you on Tuesdays and Thursdays. And on weekends, the GPP maestro you all know and love, STLCards, takes the reins.
GENERAL SLATE THOUGHTS
11:30 AM ET: Team preview time!
Utah: My beloved Jazz can’t seem to decide if they want to fight to make the playoffs or tank for a better spot in the upcoming draft. They already have 319 draft picks lined up for the next few years, so I hope they make a push for the postseason. They will be short-handed tonight, as Collin Sexton is out and both Walker Kessler and Jordan Clarkson are questionable. We saw Simone Fontecchio and Ochai Agbaji start in the place of Kessler and Clarkson on Tuesday. A matchup against the Magic is about as mediocre as you’ll find, as Orlando is ranked close to league average in pace, defensive rating, and rebounding rate.
Orlando: The Magic have lost six of their last 10 games and are slowly falling out of the playoff picture in the East. They have been decent at home and catch the Jazz at an opportune time, so perhaps they can pick up a win tonight. The absence of Wendell Carter should lead to another spot-start for Moe Wagner, who put up 36 fantasy points in 20 minutes of action on Tuesday. This is certainly an enticing matchup, as Utah is ranked 12th in pace and 23rd in defensive rating.
Charlotte: The Hornets make no sense to me. They were terrible all season and when it finally became clear that they should tank, they started winning games. They have won six of their last 10 and are favorites tonight against the Pistons, who are one of the best matchups possible for fantasy production. I thought we’d see more players pop as good values in the projections, but as of right now, Mark Williams looks like a strong option on both sites and Kelly Oubre looks like a mediocre option on DraftKings.
Detroit: The Pistons are in full tank mode and have essentially ruled out half their team for tonight’s game. Luckily, they are at home, the spread is small, and they draw one of the best possible matchups. On the season, the Hornets are ranked fourth in pace and 21st in defensive rating. Jaden Ivey, Killian Hayes, Marvin Bagley, and Isaiah Livers are all intriguing options.
Houston: The Rockets are currently tied with the Pistons for the fewest number of wins in the NBA, so they want no part of winning basketball games (at least the management). Tonight they take on the Pacers, who are ranked eighth in pace and 26th in defensive rating. With Kevin Porter out and the tanking in full swing, we do have to worry about the competitiveness of this game. With that said, Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun could have big fantasy outings in this matchup.
Indiana: The Pacers have lost six of their last 10 games, but are only two games out of the playoff picture in the East. They are finally starting to get healthy and they seem like they are trying to win, which is half the battle at this point of the season. They are large favorites tonight against the Rockets, who have all but given up on the season. The Pacers have a massive team total that is seven points higher than their season average. The Pacers aren’t projecting that well because of their elevated price points, but I don’t mind paying a premium for Tyrese Haliburton here.
Golden State: The Warriors continue to amaze us with these home/road splits. They are 27-7 at home and 7-25 on the road. Keep in mind, this is a team that owns the record for most consecutive series in the playoffs with a road win. They’ll look to finally do something away from home tonight and they catch the Grizzlies at an opportune time. The problem with the Warriors is that they are at full strength (minus Andrew Wiggins) and that they are priced appropriately. That combination is pretty rare at this point of the season. The likes of Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Klay Thompson are best suited as GPP targets.
Memphis: The Grizzlies really struggled on offense with Ja Morant out of the lineup on Tuesday. He is going to miss tonight’s game as well, as are Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke. The good news is that the Grizzlies are playing at home against the Warriors (28th in defensive rating on the road) in what should be the fastest-paced game of the slate. Tyus Jones is now priced up on DraftKings, but still a solid option. Desmond Bane should be in for a nice bounce-back effort and Xavier Tillman should soak up minutes in the frontcourt.
Brooklyn: After I suggested that betting the Nets to miss the playoffs was a good idea, they have rattled off three straight wins. They will have a tough time extending that streak tonight, though, as they travel to Milwaukee to take on the Bucks. Not only is this a tough matchup, but the Nets will be without five of their best players. This is obviously going to open up a bunch of value for DFS. At the moment, Cam Thomas, Nerlens Noel, Seth Curry, Mikal Bridges, Day’Ron Sharpe, and Dorian Finney-Smith all project as positive RG values on either FanDuel or DraftKings.
Milwaukee: The Bucks have had their star players in and out of the lineup all season and they haven’t skipped a beat. They have the best record in basketball. They are expected to have everyone available tonight, but could probably win this game without a couple of their stars. They are listed as 12-point favorites at home against the Nets. I don’t have a strong take on them for DFS other than Giannis Antetokounmpo is always viable.
New York: The Knicks had their win streak snapped by the Hornets on Tuesday, so they’ll look to start a new one tonight. The Kings have been a solid matchup for fantasy production, but this is a long way from home. The big question mark here is the availability of Jalen Brunson, who is listed as questionable. If he’s out again, Immanuel Quickley, Julius Randle, and RJ Barrett would all become strong plays in both cash games and tournaments.
Sacramento: The Kings have won seven of their last 10 games. If you polled a bunch of random NBA fans, very few would know that the Kings are tied for second in the West. Tonight they host the Knicks, who have been a subpar matchup for fantasy production this season. De’Aaron Fox will return to the lineup tonight, which should be a boost for the offense as a whole.
10:50 AM ET: Good morning friends. If the last two slates were any indication of what to expect the rest of the season, buckle up. It’s going to be a bumpy ride. We had more late scratches than I can remember all season on Tuesday and then last night, we had a bunch of injuries in-game and even had Kevin Durant get hurt in warm-ups. We often hear that NBA DFS is unbeatable these days, but there are big edges if you can react to all of this news in a timely manner. In fact, Durant was 10% owned on the late slate.
Little weather update for those of you that are wondering — it’s still snowing here in Utah. The average temperature here in March is usually around 50 degrees, but it’s been below 30 so far this year. Send help.
Ok, let’s turn our attention to Thursday’s slate. There are six games on the schedule and for the first time in recent memory, we don’t have a single team that is playing in the second half of a back-to-back. You would think this would help on the injury front, but wait until you see how many players have already been ruled out of tonight’s games.
Let’s take a look at the current injury landscape for the late and then I’ll start working on the team previews.
Out
Collin Sexton
Wendell Carter
Jonathan Isaac
LaMelo Ball
Cody Martin
Cade Cunningham
Alec Burks
Isaiah Stewart
Hamidou Diallo
Bojan Bogdanovic
Kevin Porter
Andrew Wiggins
Gary Payton
Ja Morant
Steven Adams
Brandon Clarke
Nic Claxton
Spencer Dinwiddie
Cam Johnson
Royce O’Neale
Ben Simmons
Goran Dragic
Wesley Matthews
Questionable
Jordan Clarkson
Walker Kessler
Aaron NeSmith
Jalen Brunson
Nothing but positive vibes today. The first round of THE PLAYERS Championship is underway, we have the conference tournaments going on in college basketball, and we have a bigger slate than most Thursdays in the NBA.