FREE - NBA DFS Core Plays: Thursday, January 16th
Andy Means will be bringing Premium subscribers his top daily fantasy basketball cash game plays and tournament pivots to build around. A former Duke basketball walk-on and now full-time DFS player, Andy will take an in-depth look into each of his core plays, and then blend it all together from a roster construction perspective. On weekends, the GPP maestro you all know and love, STLCards, takes the reigns.
Thursday, January 16th
UPDATE – 2:58 PM EST
All of Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, and Paul Millsap have been ruled out, so I will be tagging Michael Porter as a Core Play now as well on all sites. Even if he comes off the bench (which is what we are projecting), he is still way too cheap for his expected production. In 185 minutes with those three guys off of the court this season, MPJ is at 0.98 FD / 1.03 DK points per minute, and we are giving him a minutes projection of 25. I know he was a letdown in a similar spot last week when Barton was out, but they are down an extra body this time and the matchup is favorable. I think we should plug him into cash game builds tonight without reservation.
One last note is that I am also tagging Giannis Antetokounmpo on FD. The loose pricing on that site specifically makes him an extremely easy guy to fit in.
FD
1) Donovan Mitchell
2) Michael Porter
3) Monte Morris
4) Giannis Antetokounmpo
DK/FDRFT
1) Michael Porter
2) Donovan Mitchell
3) Monte Morris
Y
1) Donovan Mitchell
2) Michael Porter
3) Monte Morris
For those that have read this article the past few years, welcome back! For those that are new, I hope you like what you see and stick around for the whole season.
It is imperative that you read the following bullet points before proceeding so you know what I am trying to accomplish with this article, as well as how it will intertwine with some other things we offer here at RotoGrinders (e.g. LineupHQ, Crunch Time).
1. This is a cash game article! These are the players that I think you absolutely must have in your cash game lineup(s) on that day’s main slate.
2. These plays are prioritized. #1 is the first player you should plug in, #2 is the second player you should plug in, etc. Depending on the slate, I could provide as few as two players or as many as five or six.
3. I will always try to provide some sort of mathematical basis as to why a player is showing up in this article. A simplistic way to get a player’s fantasy projection is to take his fantasy-points-per-minute (FPPM) rate and multiply it by his projected minutes. You will see some variation of this in almost every write-up.
4. How you handle these players in your tournament builds is up to you. Tournament pivots for each play will be provided, and it is my goal to have those pivots be from the same position, same game, or same price range.
5. I will add updates at the top of this article as news breaks throughout the day as time permits. However, I will always update my Core Play tags in LineupHQ first. So if you see my tags in LineupHQ are different from what you see in this article, go with what is in LineupHQ. For example, if news breaks too close to the Crunch Time show, I will just update the tags in LineupHQ and break down the changes on the show.
6. What may be a great play at 11:00 AM is not always a great play at 6:00 PM! The best way to get the most out of this article is to read every word (of the original article as well as any updates) and then follow it up by watching Crunch Time leading up to lock. You are short-changing yourself if you miss out on the analysis of any news that pops up while I am on Crunch Time.
7. I cannot promise that I will always be able to update my plays on late-swap sites if news breaks after lock. In those scenarios, your best bet is to reach out to me either on Twitter or the Premium NBA channel in RotoGrinders Discord. I will do my best to get back to you.
THE CORE
1) Donovan Mitchell, Utah Jazz
FanDuel: $6,600, SG
DraftKings: $7,400, PG/SG
Yahoo: $31, SG
FantasyDraft: $13,800, G
From a priority standpoint, Mitchell obviously stands out way more on FD at $6,600 than he does at $7,400 on DK. I really have no idea why his price dropped on FD to what has to be the lowest since his rookie season. I am guessing it is some sort of combination of this last three-game stretch in which:
- Mitchell only had to play 22 minutes in a blowout against Charlotte, resulting in just 15.2 FD points.
- Mitchell missed the next game at Washington due to illness.
- Mitchell ‘only’ got 31 FD points in their game on Tuesday against the Nets (while still playing 36.5 minutes).
I’d say a drop from $7,200 in that Brooklyn game down to $6,600 in this matchup against the Pelicans (without their best perimeter defender) is a slight overreaction, wouldn’t you? And I still like him plenty as a starting point for cash games on the other sites as well, but this is obviously mainly a FanDuel discussion.
Surprisingly, Mike Conley being off of the court this season has basically had no effect on Mitchell from a fantasy perspective. For the season, he is at 1.09 FD / 1.12 DK points per minute on a 30.7% usage rate and 22.6% assist rate. In that 877-minute sample with no Conley, he is at essentially the exact same usage and assist rates (which ultimately has resulted in the same FPPM rates).
A matchup against a fast-paced Pelicans team (sixth in pace) without their best perimeter defender only sweetens the pot here. They already rank 25th in defensive rating and 27th in overall team defensive efficiency. Theoretically, I can’t imagine they do any better with Jrue Holiday.
So with Mitchell getting 34-36 minutes in competitive games, and the Jazz only being -4.5 on the road in New Orleans, the math obviously checks out here. Quite simply, there is no reason for Mitchell to be priced anywhere close to this level on FD. We should be locking him in there with no hesitation, and he is the starting point for me on the other sites as well while we await more news in places like Boston and Denver.
(Tournament pivot: Going up the pricing spectrum for either D’Angelo Russell and/or Devin Booker makes for a compelling tournament strategy if you are looking for ways to pivot off of Mitchell. Russell is my favorite of the two; I think there is just more profit potential at his price tag compared to Booker’s and the ownership probably is lower as well. Lou Williams is in that same general price range on DK as Russell and Mitchell, but he is really cheap on FD at only $6,200. He’s another guy to consider on all sites considering Paul George is out once again tonight.)
2) Monte Morris, Denver Nuggets
FanDuel: $4,000, SF
DraftKings: $4,400, PG
Yahoo: $10, PG
FantasyDraft: $9,100, G
Jamal Murray is not one to miss many games, but it would be quite surprising to see him suit up tonight after getting carried off of the court last night due to an ankle injury. That means Monte Morris should step right into the starting lineup at point guard, making him an appealing source of salary relief for our cash game builds.
As a point of reference, Monte Morris has gotten 0.91 FD / 0.90 DK points per minute this season thanks to a 18.5% usage rate, 27.2% assist rate, and 52.2% true shooting percentage. It was at 0.87 FD / 0.87 DK last season, largely due to a slightly lower assist rate. Of course, he gets most of his minutes with other reserves; the most frequently used five-man lineups for the Nuggets that have Morris in them also feature names like Plumlee, Grant, Beasley, Hernangomez, etc.
I say that because figuring out the per-minute production isn’t go to be easy. We know the minutes are going to go up, which is great, but what about his rates? For that, I think it helps to look to a stretch of games last season when he started in place of Murray.
Murray missed six games last season at the end of January and start of February, and Morris stepped into the starting lineup for the last four of them. He played a bunch of minutes (averaged 38 minutes per game) and put up huge fantasy nights (was over 40 fantasy points in three of them).
Let me stop there and reign everybody back in a bit, as we shouldn’t be expecting anything close to that tonight. For one, they really had no other ball handlers on the roster at that time last season. Malone already showed last night that he will give PJ Dozier some run backing up Morris. And as for the fantasy production in those games, he shot way above expectation. He has a 56.3% true shooting percentage for his career, and it was anywhere from 61% to 80% in each of those four games.
The main thing I am focused on is that his usage rate and assist rate didn’t suffer too much playing with the starters. And if Paul Millsap and Gary Harris are out again tonight in addition to Murray, I’d feel confident projecting him to be the same per-minute player that he usually is while probably getting a little bit of a boost thanks to the matchup. The Warriors have been really bad this season against opposing backcourts, ranking 28th in defensive efficiency in that metric.
I think mid-to-high 20’s minutes is a realistic expectation for Morris tonight, with plenty of upside for more. Once again, the price tag on FD is way more attractive, but he stands out as a nice source of salary relief on DK as well. I will tag him in LineupHQ on all sites for now, but there is a chance he moves down the priority list on DK later in the day based on how news shakes out.
(Tournament pivot: Point guard on FD is strange in that no one is priced higher than Kemba Walker at $6,700, and Ricky Rubio figures to be a popular pairing with Morris since Kelly Oubre is out tonight. Kemba may get a boost as well if Jaylen Brown (thumb) is ruled out. That makes Lonzo Ball the clear tournament pivot for me in this price range. Those other guys probably garner more ownership since Lonzo has to take on the Jazz, but the FD scoring system suits him well since they give +3 for steals and blocks. On DK, my favorite tournament pivot off of Morris is the aforementioned PJ Dozier at $3,000. One possible reason that Morris would fail tonight would be because Dozier just flat out played better and got more minutes. So not only could you have a minimum-priced guy in Dozier possibly crushing his price tag, but it might even gain you a little bit of leverage if Morris is indeed popular on DK.)
GENERAL SLATE THOUGHTS
I am going to leave it at these two guys for now while we await some injury news to start getting released. Jaylen Brown sprained his thumb last night, so there is a chance he sits out tonight. And we obviously need to see what the deal is with Murray, Harris, and Millsap in Denver. Since both of those teams played last night, it might be a bit before we get any information from these teams.
Once that news starts to trickle out, we will have a better idea of where to go next with our builds. Check back later today for an update at the top of the article as the slate starts to come into more focus.
| Meet the Experts | Content Posting Times |