NBA DFS Ownership Projections and Tournament Plays - Thursday, February 24th
Hello Grinders, hope you all had a restful All-Star break. We have a seven-game slate on this Thursday night. We’ll go through the top NBA DFS tournament picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel, highlighting key plays using data from our RotoGrinders Premium tools, which you can access here.
The focus of this article is to review early ownership projections and identify where the ownership is likely to be focused on, as well as what are some DraftKings and FanDuel picks we can consider for leverage. Keep in mind that news will trickle in throughout the day, changing ownership projections and the dynamics of this slate. The RotoGrinders projections and ownership numbers will adjust as the day goes on, so you’ll definitely want to consider having access to those tools for the most up-to-date information. With all that in mind, let’s dive in.
NBA DFS Ownership Projections for Today
It’s interesting to see how the sites differ in projected ownership early in the day. On FanDuel, we have six players with a projected ownership >30%, including three players with a projected ownership >40% (Devin Booker, Nikola Jokic, Aaron Holiday). On DraftKings, we have just two players >30% (Devin Booker, Rajon Rondo) and nobody >40%. This tells me that the pricing and nature of FanDuel (where you have to roster two players per position) is driving up ownership moreso than on FanDuel.
What both sites have in common is that Devin Booker is projected to be the highest owned player on this slate. It makes sense considering Chris Paul and Cameron Payne have been ruled out. We’re assuming Aaron Holiday joins the starting lineup to replace the injured Paul. Looking at the RotoGrinders CourtIQ data, the data shows that when Paul/Payne have been off the court this season, Devin Booker has led the team with a 34.1% usage rate and has averaged 1.25 fantasy points per minute. Given these factors, it makes sense he’s projected to be the highest owned player:
We’re also seeing several “punt” plays at the high end of projected ownership, including Rajon Rondo (~30%+ projected ownership) and Trendon Watford (25% projected ownership on DraftKings / 35% projected ownership on FanDuel). This is due to the fact both Darius Garland and Caris LeVert being out for the Cavaliers, and Jusuf Nurkic being out for the Blazers. While it hasn’t been confirmed both Rondo and Watford will be joining the starting lineups for their respective teams, that’s how we’re tentatively projected it, and at their price points they become solid relief options.
The same can be said for the aforementioned Aaron Holiday. We have him at 28% projected ownership on DraftKings and 41% projected ownership on FanDuel. While he hasn’t been officially announced as the starter, there’s a solid chance he’s the replacement as Elfrid Payton has seen his minutes trend down lately and seems more suited for backup guard duties.
Best Tournament Plays
DraftKings
Nikola Jokic – There’s nothing sneaky about Jokic tonight, but current projected ownership has him at just 23.7%, which isn’t even tops at his position. Because Trendon Watford is center-only eligible on DraftKings, our early projections have him as the top owned center at 24.7% given his $3,400 price point. This isn’t to say you should fade Watford in GPPs, but this might mean it could be advantageous to consider two-center builds using both Watford and Jokic in your center and utility spots. Jokic’s price is also getting to uncomfortable levels, where he’s now $12,500 on DraftKings. At the same time, he gets to face a Kings team tonight that ranks 7th in pace and 29th in defensive efficiency. He also torched this Kings team earlier this season for 66 DraftKings points. This slate is setting up to be a stars-and-scrub lineup construction, and I’d consider Jokic to be one of the stars to target.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – On paper this is a scary spot to roster SGA. He’s returning from an ankle injury so it’s still unclear whether he’s on any minute restriction, and he’s facing a Suns team that ranks 3rd in defensive efficiency. The silver lining is that he’ll be facing a Suns team without Chris Paul, and given SGA hasn’t played in nearly a month, he’s not going to be top of mind for DFS players tonight. Given the smaller seven-game slate we’re dealing with, I don’t hate the idea of taking some chances on Gilgeous-Alexander at likely low ownership. We know there’s 50+ fantasy upside here and he still grades out as one of the better RG Value options at guard on this slate. I’ll be curious to see if there’s any industry buzz on him throughout the day, because if there isn’t, he might make for a sneakier option assuming he faces no restrictions.
FanDuel
Anfernee Simons – There’s definitely some sticker-shock seeing Simons’ price tag now. He’s up to $8,100 on DraftKings and $7,600 on FanDuel. Simons and the Blazers also find themselves in an unfavorable matchup tonight against the Warriors as 9.5 home underdogs. Given all these factors, it’s likely we see Simons’ ownership come in at a reasonable level. The Blazers find themselves decimated by injuries, as they remain without Damian Lillard, Jusuf Nurkic, Eric Bledsoe, Nassir Little and Joe Ingles. On top of that, they waived the injured Dennis Smith. This has basically left Simons to have free reign of this offense and to soak up all the usage he wants. Yes, this game might blow out, but if it stays close it’ll likely be because Simons has allowed it to stay close. Despite his rising price tag, Simons still has a Top-5 RG Value rating among all point guards on FanDuel tonight. If you’re curious where he ranks among that list, you can find all that information in the RotoGrinders Premium projections.
DeAndre Ayton – I’m intrigued by Ayton tonight given the absences of Paul and Payne. We know Devin Booker will lead the Suns’ offense, and his ownership will be high to reflect his new role. But if you scroll back to the top where I posted the CourtIQ run with Paul/Payne off the court this season, we find that Ayton has averaged 1.51 fantasy points per minute in this situation. Granted, it’s only been over a small 49-minute sample, but this at least tells me there’s upside with Ayton here. We only have him projected at 10% ownership on FanDuel to start the day, and the matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder isn’t anything to be feared as the Thunder remain without Mike Muscala and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl. It’ll be some combination of Derrick Favors and Isaiah Roby trying to match up against Ayton, and this is a matchup he should win. I have no idea if he’ll be able to maintain that 1.51 fantasy point per minute output tonight, but I’m certainly willing to take some chances in tournaments.
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