NBA DFS Ownership Projections and Tournament Plays - Thursday, January 13th
Hello Grinders. We have a shorter five-game slate on this Thursday night with a really interesting late night hammer. We’ll go through the top NBA DFS tournament picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel, highlighting key plays using data from our RotoGrinders Premium tools, which you can access here.
The focus of this article is to review early ownership projections and identify where the ownership is likely to be focused on, as well as what are some DraftKings and FanDuel picks we can consider for leverage. Keep in mind that news will trickle in throughout the day, changing ownership projections and the dynamics of this slate. The RotoGrinders projections and ownership numbers will adjust as the day goes on, so you’ll definitely want to consider having access to those tools for the most up-to-date information. With all that in mind, let’s dive in.
NBA DFS Ownership Projections for Today
Projected ownership is likely going to be extremely condensed today because of two injury situations we need to touch on – Portland and Brooklyn.
We currently have Dennis Smith projected for ownership north of 70% on both DraftKings and FanDuel, which feels crazy to see on any slate. But the fact of the matter is that all of Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, Norman Powell, Anfernee Simons and Larry Nance remain out for the Blazers, leaving them extremely short-handed. With Smith the only true point guard left on the roster, he’s going to have to play big minutes. 70%+ ownership in tournaments is a big number but the starting point on this slate will be whether you eat that chalk or go for a fade. In cash games you definitely just play Smith, but in tournaments there is merit to both sides of the argument. Given the lack of guard depth in Portland I lean closer to locking him in than fading Smith, but we have seen Smith fail as chalk plenty of times.
There’s going to be a trickle down effect with all these injuries in Portland. Jusuf Nurkic is projecting for 30%+ ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel as well. That’s good for the second highest projected player on DraftKings and the fifth highest projected player on FanDuel. This makes some sense, because you can roster multiple centers on DraftKings so there’s more flexibility to use Nurkic, but on FanDuel you only get to roster one center so there’s more of an opportunity cost there. Bobby Portis and Nikola Jokic are also going to soak up center ownership on FanDuel, so just keep that in mind. Like Dennis Smith, Nurkic is going to be leaned on even more for his offense so there’s a big ceiling here. You can see how Nurkic’s projections and projected ownership compares to all the centers on this slate via RotoGrinders Premium access.
The last situation we need to discuss is the one in Brooklyn. Kyrie Irving is expected out due to his vaccine stance and with this being a home game. There’s also chatter that Kevin Durant could rest on this backend game of a back-to-back. If he does, that’s going to flow all the ownership to James Harden. On DraftKings, we’re already projecting Harden to have ownership close to 25%, while he’s currently at 37% on FanDuel due to him being $700 cheaper on FanDuel. Those ownership projections will skyrocket if Kevin Durant is ruled out. Per our RotoGrinders CourtIQ tool, Harden has averaged 1.50 fantasy points per minute this season when both Irving and Durant have been off the court.
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Best Tournament Plays
Below is a look at two of my favorite tournament plays on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and the reasons behind my thinking:
DRAFTKINGS
Patrick Beverley – The last box score for Beverley isn’t very impressive where he played just 21 minutes and finished with 23.75 DraftKings points. But at just $5,300 at 10% projected ownership, I think there’s plenty of meat on the bone here. For starters, the Timberwolves have listed Leandro Bolmaro as out and Jaylen Nowell as doubtful, so they will be shorter on guard depth than normal. This should help both Patrick Beverley and Malik Beasley in the second unit. This is also a good matchup on paper. The Pelicans rank 27th in defensive efficiency this season and allow the 10th most fantasy points per game to opposing teams (110.5). Beverley is just one game removed from a four-game stretch of finishing with 30+ fantasy DraftKings points, so there is upside here as one of the better tournament plays on this slate when so much of the guard ownership will flow towards the backcourt in Portland.
Robert Covington – Our DraftKings projected ownership has Nassir Little projected for 2x the ownership of Covington, but I would argue Covington may have the higher ceiling due to his potential to see more minutes. With Cody Zeller doubtful and Larry Nance out, Covington may be forced to see all the minutes he can handle. He’s played 34 minutes in three straight games and if Jusuf Nurkic should land in any foul trouble against Nikola Jokic, I don’t see how Covington can come off the court. His $5,800 price tag is not appealing at all and up $900 from his last game, which should keep his ownership down even more. Yet we’ve seen Covington flash 40 point DraftKings upside so I do think he’s worth taking some shots on in tournaments given the team’s situation.
FANDUEL
Nikola Jokic – Jokic could have lower-than-normal ownership tonight on FanDuel because of Jusuf Nurkic and Bobby Portis being better options when factoring in salary. In fact our current ownership projections have both players with higher ownership than Jokic. Jokic won’t be sneaky on this smaller five-game slate, but he gets to face his former teammate Jusuf Nurkic here in a game where the Blazers have been forced to go small as a result of their injuries. With Larry Nance out, Robert Covington has been forced to start at power forward (he was previously acting as their backup center when they went small). Cody Zeller is also doubtful, meaning the Blazers don’t have a true backup center and will be forced to use Trendon Watford in their rotation. My guess is they use Jusuf Nurkic as much as possible to match up against Jokic but Jokic could have a field day here.
Ben McLemore – McLemore won’t be sneaky on this slate but he’s projected for one-third of the ownership of Dennis Smith yet is in the same game environment and situation as Dennis Smith. We’re projecting McLemore to also play somewhat similar minutes as Smith (34 minutes for McLemore compared to 36 minutes for Smith), so the playing time should be there. You can certainly play both and I’m not advocating that you fade Smith in favor of McLemore, but it surprises me to see McLemore at such a smaller fraction of ownership than Smith. McLemore is coming off a game where he dropped 33 FanDuel points in just 30 minutes, so there’s plenty of upside here at $4,100. The Blazers will mix in backups like Tony Snell, Greg Brown and CJ Elleby to soak up some minutes so we likely don’t see McLemore play massive minutes, but I could easily see McLemore finishing the night as one of the better point-per-dollar options if his shot is falling.
Image Credit: Imagn