NBA DFS Ownership Projections and Tournament Plays - Thursday, January 27th
Hello Grinders. We have a short two-game slate on this Thursday night. We’ll go through the top NBA DFS tournament picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel, highlighting key plays using data from our RotoGrinders Premium tools, which you can access here. Given the short slate, we’re going to have to find some creative ways to get different in large-field tournaments.
The focus of this article is to review early ownership projections and identify where the ownership is likely to be focused on, as well as what are some DraftKings and FanDuel picks we can consider for leverage. Keep in mind that news will trickle in throughout the day, changing ownership projections and the dynamics of this slate. The RotoGrinders projections and ownership numbers will adjust as the day goes on, so you’ll definitely want to consider having access to those tools for the most up-to-date information. With all that in mind, let’s dive in.
NBA DFS Ownership Projections for Today
Given the short two-game slate, projected ownership will be more condensed than normal. This is true even more on FanDuel, where the positional requirements of rostering two players per position make ownership even more condensed, as there’s no flexibility like on DraftKings with the G, F and Util spots.
On FanDuel, we’re seeing four players already grabbing ownership of around 60% or higher: Tyrese Maxey, Kevon Looney, Joel Embiid and Stephen Curry. Maxey’s projected ownership of 75% leads the slate, due to Seth Curry and Shake Milton being out, as well as his $5,800 price tag. He leads the entire slate with a 36% smash percentage, which is a RotoGrinders calculation factoring in a player’s salary and the likelihood he exceeds his implied projected point total. Kevon Looney is right behind Maxey in smash percentage at 33%, and his appeal comes from the fact he’s just $4,900, helps fill a weak power forward position, and the Warriors remain without Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala and James Wiseman. As for Joel Embiid and Stephen Curry, they account for two of the top three projected players today from a raw points perspective. Embiid’s appeal comes from the fact the center position mainly consists of him, Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Davis, who played just 25 minutes in his first game back from injury and likely remains on a minute restriction.
On DraftKings, ownership is slightly less condensed with nobody currently at 60% projected ownership yet. However, RotoGrinders has six players projected between 50%-60% projected ownership: Tobias Harris, Joel Embiid, Otto Porter, Kevon Looney, Andrew Wiggins and Jarred Vanderbilt. Notice this list is much different than the FanDuel list, as Tyrese Maxey and Stephen Curry project for lower ownership on DraftKings than they do on FanDuel. It’s very interesting that Tobias Harris pops as a much better value and pick on DraftKings than on FanDuel, as he’s $800 cheaper on DraftKings. One thing to note is that Harris has a non-COVID illness and missed practice this morning but is expected to play. Should his status be downgraded later in the day, that could impact his projected ownership if DFS players get worried. The team did recall Myles Powell and Charles Bassey, but it remains to be seen if that was just precautionary.
Best Tournament Plays
DraftKings
Karl-Anthony Towns – Joel Embiid is going to soak up most of the center ownership on this slate but going with both Embiid and Towns is an interesting strategy if you’re willing to pay up for a double-center build. KAT has nearly half the projected ownership as Embiid, and pairing the two is going to be pricey as it leaves you with just $4,900 per player for the remaining six spots on your lineup. As such, you likely won’t be able to get any of the other studs like LeBron James, Stephen Curry or Russell Westbrook. I’m okay with that, as KAT’s projected floor is the same as Curry’,s four points below James’ and nearly nine points more than Westbrook’s. We’re actually getting a bit of a price discount on Towns too, as his $9,200 price tag is $200 lower than he was last slate and actually the lowest he’s been all season. I think he makes for a fantastic tournament play even if you’re pairing him with Joel Embiid.
Nemanja Bjelica – We’re going to have to get weird on this short slate, and I don’t mind doing it with a YOLO punt like Nemanja Bjelica. At just $3,500, there’s not much of an opportunity cost and Bjelica just flashed 30+ fantasy upside last game. I’ll admit it’s a bit of an outlier game as he got extra run in the 4th quarter due to the game blowing out 130-92 against the Mavericks, and tonight’s game against the Timberwolves only has the Warriors as six-point home favorites. Still, Bjelica has now played at least 16 minutes in four of his last five games, and the absences of Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala could give Bejlica a little more leash. I also have to stay on brand and mention this is a #revenge game for Bjelica.
FanDuel
Anthony Edwards – Edwards is an interesting tournament option on FanDuel given you can play him at either the SG or SF positions. Looking at the SG position, he nearly projects for the same amount of fantasy points as teammate D’Angelo Russell but projects for 10% less projected ownership. Looking the SF position, he sort of falls in no-man’s land as projected ownership suggests DFS players will prefer dropping down to the cheaper Andrew Wiggins (also in a revenge game!) or pay up for Tobias Harris, who currently has a projected ownership number of 49%. Edwards is coming off a monster performance where he dropped 67.8 FanDuel points against the Blazers, and appears to be coming into his own in this league as a budding superstar. There is major upside here if he can continue to tap into that upside. He did drop 62.7 FanDuel points against this Warriors team back on November 10, too.
Update – Patrick Beverley is now closer to doubtful per Coach Finch with Jaylen Nowell closer to probable.
Patrick Beverley – Beverley carries a questionable tag as he’s dealing with an ankle injury and has missed the last two games. As such, this recommendation may become a moot point if he can’t suit up tonight. However, there’s no reason that Tyrese Maxey should project for nearly 2x the amount of ownership Beverley does on FanDuel when Beverley is just $200 cheaper, assuming Beverley is a full-go tonight. The questionable tag should keep people off Beverley, and the fact that Maxey is in a better situation in terms of the 76ers missing Ben Simmons, Seth Curry and Shake Milton. Still, we’ve seen Maxey finish with just 23.6, 33.4, 30.8 and 20.1 FanDuel points in his last four games, which are certainly scores that Beverley can match or exceed at half the ownership. Again, we’ll need to keep an eye out on the injury report, but I see plenty of merit in tournaments to take shots on point guards like Beverley at much lower ownership than the chalky Tyrese Maxey.
Image Credit: Imagn