NBA DFS Ownership Projections and Tournament Plays - Thursday, January 6th
Update 3pm EST – Isaiah Stewart has been ruled in, which is going to lower the ownership of Trey Lyles now. This will naturally boost the ownership of Marcus Morris and all the other forwards on this slate, making him a slightly less appealing option. Draymond Green and Juan Toscano-Anderson have also been ruled out, leaving us with two fewer forwards to work with. This makes Morris a less appealing tournament option at likely high ownership, and makes me like a pivot like Brandon Clarke even more.
Hello Grinders. We have a shorter four-game slate on this Thursday night, so ownership is going to be more condensed than yesterday’s big slate. We’ll go through the top NBA DFS tournament picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel, highlighting key plays using data from our RotoGrinders Premium tools, which you can access here.
The focus of this article is to review early ownership projections and identify where the ownership is likely to be focused on, as well as what are some DraftKings and FanDuel picks we can consider for leverage. Keep in mind that news will trickle in throughout the day, changing ownership projections and the dynamics of this slate. The RotoGrinders projections and ownership numbers will adjust as the day goes on, so you’ll definitely want to consider having access to those tools for the most up-to-date information. With all that in mind, let’s dive in.
NBA DFS Ownership Projections for Today
Projected ownership is widely different on DraftKings compared to FanDuel, due to different salary structures and also due to positional eligibility. The introduction of dual positions on FanDuel this season has allowed more flexibility in roster builds, but an early look at RotoGrinders’ Projected Ownership numbers shows the two sites differ at certain positions.
One thing is for certain on both DraftKings and FanDuel – Jordan Poole is set for heavy ownership on today’s slate. With Stephen Curry suffering a quad injury in yesterday’s game, it’s looking doubtful that Curry suits up tonight. Using the RotoGrinder’s CourtIQ tool, we can find that Poole has seen a 6% usage bump this season when Curry has been off the court. On both DraftKings and FanDuel, we tentatively have Poole north of 40% ownership.
The other big difference in ownership that stands out to me is at the Power Forward position. On FanDuel, Trey Lyles is Power Forward eligible only, and he’s coming in north of 40% projected owned as well. There are some risks to monitor with Lyles – he’s coming off a back-to-back, and starting center Isaiah Stewart is close to a return. Should Stewart return tonight and clear Health Protocols, that will shrink the projected ownership for Lyles. However, if Lyles draws another start tonight, he stands to be a very popular option given his $4,900 price tag and the fact he’s posted 25+ FanDuel points in consecutive games. On DraftKings, Lyles comes in at closer to 27% projected ownership because we have Marcus Morris soaking up the highest ownership among forwards. Morris is significantly cheaper on DraftKings ($5,600) than on FanDuel ($6,900), has dual-eligibility within the Small Forward and Power Forward positions, and sees a huge usage bump when Paul George has been off the court. Add in the fact he’s facing the Phoenix Suns in a revenge game, and there’s a lot to like here.
Best Tournament Plays
Below is a look at two of my favorite tournament plays on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and the reasons behind my thinking:
DRAFTKINGS
Bismack Biyombo – Given the short four-game slate, we have a relatively weak group at the center position today. With DeAndre Ayton and JaVale McGee out due to Health Protocols, this has forced the Suns to sign Biyombo as their backup center behind Jalen Smith. Biyombo was rewarded with a rest-of-season contract this morning and has been playing well, finishing with 24 and 38 DraftKings points in his two outings. Biyombo typically isn’t known for his high ceiling but at $4,000 on DraftKings, he has a route to pay off that salary tag. Ownership is relatively spread out today at the center position on DraftKings, where we currently have Biyombo coming in at the 6th highest projected owned center yet his fantasy projection is only within eight points of Trey Lyles, who is the highest projected owned center. If Biyombo can match or exceed Lyles at half the ownership and $1,000 less salary, there’s solid leverage here.
R.J. Barrett – Both R.J. Barrett and Alec Burks show similar projections and projected ownership at the moment. They are also within $100 of each other in salary and both hold Small Forward eligibility. Barrett is coming off a monster 48.5 DraftKings point performance so it’ll be interesting to see if that recency bias sways ownership his way. This is a spot I’m monitoring because the CourtIQ data shows that when Derrick Rose and Kemba Walker have been off the court this season, Barrett has had a 27.2% usage rate and averages 1.03 fantasy points per minute. In comparison, Burks has a 20.8% usage rate and averages 0.92 fantasy points per minute. If both Barrett and Burks project to come in at similar ownership, I’ll take Barrett, whose data suggests he’s thrived more under these similar circumstances.
FANDUEL
Brandon Clarke – Clarke may go overlooked on this slate despite the fact he’s finished with 35 FanDuel points in two of his last three games. The Grizzlies are without Xavier Tillman and John Konchar, while all of Desmond Bane, Kyle Anderson, Dillon Brooks, De’Anthony Melton and Yves Pons are doubtful or questionable for tonight’s game. This has forced Clarke to take on a larger role in the second unit, and he’s responded well. Clarke is only Power Forward eligible on FanDuel and his $5,600 price tag puts him in a bit in no-man’s land. At $5,600, I suspect people will rather pay $300 more for the rising Suns starter in Jalen Smith, or drop down to his teammate Mikal Bridges at $5,400. We’re only projecting Clarke for 24 minutes so he’s firmly a tournament-only option as he’s going to have to do his damage in limited time.
Cade Cunningham – We’re projecting Cunningham for high ownership so he’s not going to be sneaky, but I suspect that so much of the DFS content on FanDuel today will focus on Jordan Poole that it won’t focus enough on Cade Cunningham. Like Poole, Cunningham has Point Guard and Shooting Guard eligibility, so there’s multiple ways to fit him in. But if Poole truly is 40%+ owned, that’s naturally going to mean all the other Point Guards and Shooting Guards on this slate will be lower owned than normal due to so many lineups having Poole in one of their Guard spots on FanDuel. The appeal with Cunningham is that he’s seen a huge price drop on FanDuel, going from $7,500 last night to $6,800 tonight. I am not sure if he’s done anything to warrant that $700 drop, given he’s scored 30+ FanDuel points in back-to-back games now.
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