NBA DFS Ownership Projections and Tournament Plays - Thursday, March 10th
Hello Grinders. We have a small two-game slate on this Thursday night. We’ll go through the top NBA DFS tournament picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel, highlighting key plays using data from our RotoGrinders Premium tools, which you can access here.
The focus of this article is to review early ownership projections and identify where the ownership is likely to be focused on, as well as what are some DraftKings and FanDuel picks we can consider for leverage. Keep in mind that news will trickle in throughout the day, changing ownership projections and the dynamics of this slate. The RotoGrinders projections and ownership numbers will adjust as the day goes on, so you’ll definitely want to consider having access to those tools for the most up-to-date information. With all that in mind, let’s dive in.
NBA DFS Ownership Projections for Today
As you can imagine on a short two-game slate, projected ownership is going to be condensed. Normally we see a more condensed ownership on FanDuel due to the rigidity of positions needing to be filled out, but tonight we’re actually seeing more condensed ownership on DraftKings.
To take a step back, let’s first look at FanDuel. We have eight players with a projected ownership between 40%-70%, with nobody higher than Kevin Looney at 69.6%. Every position appears to have one clear chalk play. At PG, Stephen Curry is projected for 59.8% ownership. At SG, Klay Thompson is projected for 66% ownership. At SF, James Harden is projected for 63.9% ownership. At power forward or center, this is where you want to use Kevon Looney and his 69.6% ownership. Because Looney has dual PF/C eligibility, that’s depressing the ownership of the other players at PF and C. At PF, Kevin Durant is the next highest projected player at 45.3%, while at C, Joel Embiid is the next highest projected player at 50.7%. I personally think Looney makes more sense to be used at the PF spot so you can pay up for an elite C, but it will obviously depend on your roster construction.
Now let’s look at DraftKings. We actually have 10 players projected between 40%-73% ownership, with Nikola Jokic projected as the highest owned player at 73.1% ownership. This is such a dramatic difference compared to FanDuel. While Kevon Looney projects as the highest owned player on FanDuel, he’s only projected to be the sixth highest owned projected player on DraftKings. The biggest difference is that Looney is C-only eligible on DraftKings and can’t be used in the PF slot. As a result, there’s a much larger opportunity cost fading Nikola Jokic on DraftKings if you end up punting with another center like Kevon Looney.
One last thing worth noting when looking at projected ownership across both sites is that Goran Dragic is really popping. We have him at 48.7% projected ownership on FanDuel and 63.4% projected ownership on DraftKings. Dragic isn’t even projected to start as the Nets will use Kyrie Irving and Seth Curry as their starting backcourt, but Dragic has reached 22+ minutes now in three straight games and is the clear main backup guard in the second unit as long as Ben Simmons remains out (and he’s out once again tonight). Dragic is the clear punt play on both sites tonight.
As a reminder, if you want to have full access to our RotoGrinders projected ownership, make sure you sign up for Premium access.
Best Tournament Plays
DraftKings
Andre Drummond – With so much of the ownership likely flowing to Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid (but rightfully so), that should leave someone like Andre Drummond relatively low owned on a two-game slate. In fact as of this writing, we have Drummond projected for sub-3% ownership. It is an absolutely brutal matchup against Joel Embiid, and we have Drummond projected to split time at center with Nic Claxton so Drummond’s median projection doesn’t look amazing, but we know the Nets are going to need Drummond’s size tonight to defend against Embiid. These two also have quite the history and were just teammates, so I’m sure they know each other very well. Drummond is coming off a 47.5 DraftKings point performance against the Hornets and while this matchup is going to be tougher, I love the idea of taking some shots on Drummond in tournaments at low ownership with the hope he can get remotely close to matching the production of a top center like Embiid or Jokic at less than half the price. The nice thing too is you can use Drummond in your Utility spot, so you can still play Embiid or Jokic in the same lineup if you want.
Austin Rivers & Davon Reed – I’m lumping these two together because one or both could benefit tonight depending on the Nuggets’ injury situation. I am writing this six hours before lock, and the Nuggets still haven’t released their injury report. Perhaps we get more clarity in the coming hours, but the Nuggets were without Will Barton and Jeff Green last night, allowing Austin Rivers and Davon Reed to draw spot starts. Barton was out dealing with an ankle injury while Green was out due to a new baby. It’s unclear if either will be back for tonight’s game against the Warriors, but our current projections have both of them in. Considering this game is 2.5 hours after lock, it’s very possible we don’t even know their statuses when lineups lock. If that’s the case, there may be some upside in plugging in someone like Austin Rivers or Davon Reed, hoping for news to break your way. Given it’s a two-game slate, there aren’t a lot of ways to get different, but this is one of them. Rivers and Reed are just $3,600 and $3,300 on DraftKings, respectively, so the opportunity cost isn’t very high if it turns out Barton and/or Green are back. If you do go down this route, perhaps having some 2v2 swaps available is a good idea in case the news breaks against you.
FanDuel
Nikola Jokic – It feels weird to write up Nikola Jokic as a tournament play on a two-game slate, but if we see him come in at the 42.9% projected ownership we have him for on FanDuel, there’s a very good case going overweight in tournaments is a solid strategy. Joel Embiid is $600 cheaper and projects for a similar ceiling as Jokic, so it’s very reasonable for DFS players to pay down and take Embiid on this slate. At the same time, we’ve now seen Jokic put up FanDuel scores of 92.9, 69.5 and 76.1 in his last three games, basically making it scary to bet against him at this point. The funny thing is that despite the fact Jokic is on a roll, his $11,400 salary on FanDuel isn’t even close to his highest price on the site this season (his peak price is $11,900). Monitor the industry buzz on Jokic today on FanDuel, because he might not be owned enough in tournaments even on a two-game slate.
Bones Hyland – Hyland also missed last night’s game due to a knee injury so this is something we’ll need to monitor. For now, I’ll do this writeup under the assumption he does play. The appeal for me with Hyland is that Goran Dragic will be the clear chalk punt at PG on FanDuel tonight at $4,200 and a 48.7% projected ownership. Hyland is right below him in price at $4,100 but projected for 14.9% ownership. In other words, Dragic is expected to be 3x as owned as Hyland. Hyland does have a median projection of four points less than Dragic so if you roster Hyland, you are sacrificing floor. But I would argue the trade off is worth it on a two-game slate because if Hyland outscores Dragic at 1/3 of the ownership, you’re going to lap your competition. If Hyland ends up sitting another game, you can pivot down to teammate Austin Rivers at just $4,000 (and as mentioned above, there is a chance Rivers could start if Will Barton remains out).