NBA DFS Playoff Primer: Friday, May 19
The NBA postseason is finally upon us. We no longer have to worry about players resting, late scratches, and teams trying to lose. For the next couple of months, we get meaningful basketball game after meaningful basketball game. We have decided to combine the Core Plays and the Grind Down into one all-encompassing article for the NBA playoffs. We will break down each slate, sift through the game flow trackers of prior meetings between teams, cover the notable matchups, and provide our favorite NBA DFS targets.
Listen, I know basketball is a game of runs, but there have been some massive swings in the first three games of the Conference Finals. The Lakers nearly completed a huge comeback win in Game 1, the Heat outscored the Celtics by 21 points in the third quarter of Game 1, and the Nuggets put together a very impressive fourth quarter to rally and beat the Lakers in Game 2. I don’t want these playoffs to end. I know the regular season was a grind, but playoff basketball is one of the best things in the world.
The festivities continue tonight in Boston. Let’s dive into the game.
Game 2: Miami Heat at Boston Celtics
- Time: 8:30 PM ET
- Series: Heat 1 – Celtics 0
Series Matchups
- Game 1: MIA 123 – BOS 116
Notable Injuries
Tyler Herro – Out
Miami Heat Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Vincent | $5,400 | $8,000 | 25.9 | 9.9 | 17.9 | 8.8 | 17% | -6% | 0.69 | 0.06 | 0.67 | 0.08 | 23.6 | 22.4 | ||||
| Max Strus | $6,200 | $8,000 | 28.4 | 5.8 | 20.9 | -0.6 | 17% | -5% | 0.74 | -0.14 | 0.70 | -0.15 | 20.2 | 19.1 | ||||
| Jimmy Butler | $12,400 | $17,000 | 33.4 | 9.8 | 42.2 | 21.1 | 25% | 8% | 1.26 | 0.20 | 1.29 | 0.26 | 50.5 | 51.0 | ||||
| Kevin Love | $4,400 | $7,000 | 20.0 | -3.5 | 20.4 | -3.4 | 19% | -1% | 1.02 | 0.01 | 0.97 | -0.03 | 16.6 | 15.8 | ||||
| Bam Adebayo | $9,000 | $13,500 | 34.6 | 2.4 | 40.1 | -2.1 | 25% | -3% | 1.16 | -0.13 | 1.16 | -0.15 | 42.1 | 41.5 | ||||
| Kyle Lowry | $6,400 | $10,000 | 31.2 | -3.4 | 26.9 | 1.4 | 16% | 4% | 0.86 | 0.15 | 0.84 | 0.17 | 22.8 | 21.9 | ||||
| Caleb Martin | $5,000 | $8,500 | 29.3 | 0.5 | 20.9 | 11.1 | 14% | 2% | 0.71 | 0.36 | 0.72 | 0.40 | 18.3 | 18.4 | ||||
| Duncan Robinson | $3,400 | $6,500 | 16.4 | -9.8 | 11.1 | -11.1 | 17% | -4% | 0.67 | -0.67 | 0.63 | -0.63 | 6.9 | 6.4 | ||||
| Cody Zeller | $1,000 | $6,500 | 14.4 | -5.1 | 13.5 | -10.2 | 18% | -5% | 0.94 | -0.59 | 0.94 | -0.64 | 7.2 | 7.1 | ||||
| Haywood Highsmith | $1,000 | $6,000 | 18.0 | 12.0 | 12% | 0.67 | 0.68 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and the playoffs.
Boston Celtics Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Smart | $7,200 | $10,500 | 32.1 | 1.7 | 28.6 | 9.7 | 18% | -2% | 0.89 | 0.24 | 0.88 | 0.24 | 31.0 | 29.8 | ||||
| Jaylen Brown | $10,200 | $15,500 | 35.9 | 2.7 | 43.5 | -5.3 | 31% | 0% | 1.21 | -0.22 | 1.17 | -0.27 | 40.5 | 38.5 | ||||
| Jayson Tatum | $12,000 | $17,500 | 36.9 | 4.1 | 52.4 | -11.7 | 32% | -5% | 1.42 | -0.43 | 1.37 | -0.41 | 53.2 | 50.1 | ||||
| Al Horford | $7,400 | $12,000 | 30.5 | 1.4 | 26.1 | -2.6 | 12% | 0% | 0.85 | -0.12 | 0.85 | -0.05 | 23.7 | 23.2 | ||||
| Robert Williams | $4,600 | $7,500 | 23.5 | 2.0 | 24.2 | 0.0 | 11% | 3% | 1.03 | -0.08 | 1.08 | -0.11 | 23.4 | 24.4 | ||||
| Derrick White | $4,800 | $7,500 | 28.3 | -7.7 | 26.4 | -7.9 | 17% | -4% | 0.93 | -0.03 | 0.93 | -0.06 | 18.0 | 17.8 | ||||
| Malcolm Brogdon | $5,800 | $9,500 | 26.0 | 10.8 | 28.0 | -4.5 | 22% | -2% | 1.08 | -0.44 | 1.05 | -0.45 | 30.3 | 29.2 | ||||
| Grant Williams | $2,200 | $6,000 | 25.9 | 18.5 | 13% | 0.71 | 0.70 | 0.6 | 0.6 | |||||||||
| Payton Pritchard | $1,000 | $6,000 | 13.4 | -1.6 | 10.7 | -9.2 | 19% | -11% | 0.80 | -0.67 | 0.74 | -0.61 | 6.9 | 6.3 | ||||
| Sam Hauser | $1,000 | $6,000 | 16.1 | 13.1 | 14% | 0.81 | 0.79 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and the playoffs.
Game 2 Analysis
I’ll be the first to admit that I was wrong in my analysis of Game 1 in this series. I did not expect the Heat to come out and win Game 1 on the road. The good news for Boston is that in NBA playoff history, home teams that lost Game 1 went on to win Game 2 77% of the time. The Celtics are -390 favorites on the moneyline and 9-point favorites when it comes to the spread. Very few are giving the Heat much of a chance in this game and we should expect that to be reflected in ownership for DFS.
Gabe Vincent played great defense against Jalen Brunson in the second round and shouldered more of the load offensively in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. He ended up playing 35 minutes and scored 26 fantasy points (3-for-5 from the three-point line). It was nice to see a game where he wasn’t competing with Kyle Lowry, as both players saw big minutes and played quite a bit together. Lowry continues to produce, topping 23 fantasy points in seven straight games. Based on their current salaries, I slightly prefer Vincent, but I expect the field to do the same. Lowry is a strong tournament play.