NBA DFS Playoff Primer: Monday, April 24
The NBA postseason is finally upon us. We no longer have to worry about players resting, late scratches, and teams trying to lose. For the next couple of months, we get meaningful basketball game after meaningful basketball game. We have decided to combine the Core Plays and the Grind Down into one all-encompassing article for the NBA playoffs. We will break down each slate, sift through the game flow trackers of prior meetings between teams, cover the notable matchups, and provide our favorite NBA DFS targets.
Happy Monday everyone and welcome back to the NBA Playoff Primer. The first round has been terrific and based on the spread of the two games on tonight’s schedule, we should have two more competitive games to look forward to watching. The Heat are looking to extend their 2-1 lead over the Bucks and the Lakers are looking to do the same against the Grizzlies. These are important games for Milwaukee and Memphis, as they have the opportunity steal back home-court advantage.
Let’s jump right into the slate.
Game 4: Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat
- Time: 7:30 PM ET
- Series: Bucks 1 – Heat 2
Previous Matchups
- Game 1: MIA 130 – MIL 117
- Game 2: MIA 122 – MIL 138
- Game 3: MIL 99 – MIA 121
Notable Injuries
Giannis Antetokounmpo – Questionable
Wesley Matthews – Out
Jimmy Butler – Questionable
Tyler Herro – Out
Victor Oladipo – Out
Milwaukee Bucks Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jrue Holiday | $8,400 | $8,900 | 32.6 | 1.9 | 40.1 | 4.6 | 24% | 2% | 1.23 | 0.07 | 1.19 | 0.03 | 40 | 42.4 | 5.05 | 40.4 | 4.54 | |
| Grayson Allen | $4,300 | $4,500 | 27.4 | 2.5 | 20.7 | 0.7 | 14% | 2% | 0.75 | -0.04 | 0.74 | -0.10 | 30 | 17.7 | 4.12 | 17.1 | 3.81 | |
| Khris Middleton | $7,500 | $7,700 | 24.3 | 7.3 | 29.3 | 12.3 | 26% | 5% | 1.21 | 0.11 | 1.16 | 0.08 | 38 | 39.1 | 5.22 | 37.1 | 4.82 | |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | $10,400 | $11,900 | 32.1 | -21.3 | 57.4 | -48.1 | 37% | -11% | 1.79 | -0.93 | 1.72 | -0.91 | 35 | 57.6 | 5.54 | 54.9 | 4.61 | |
| Brook Lopez | $6,100 | $7,300 | 30.4 | 2.7 | 32.6 | -6.9 | 19% | -1% | 1.07 | -0.29 | 1.11 | -0.28 | 35 | 27.2 | 4.45 | 27.4 | 3.76 | |
| Bobby Portis | $6,700 | $6,800 | 26.0 | -0.1 | 30.5 | 4.8 | 21% | -2% | 1.17 | 0.19 | 1.11 | 0.26 | 24 | 21.9 | 3.27 | 21.0 | 3.09 | |
| Joe Ingles | $3,800 | $4,400 | 22.7 | -1.8 | 17.3 | 0.7 | 12% | 5% | 0.76 | 0.10 | 0.73 | 0.07 | 18 | 10.7 | 2.80 | 10.1 | 2.29 | |
| Jevon Carter | $3,300 | $3,700 | 22.4 | -6.0 | 17.5 | -11.5 | 15% | -7% | 0.78 | -0.42 | 0.77 | -0.40 | 8 | 4.0 | 1.21 | 4.0 | 1.09 | |
| Jae Crowder | $3,400 | $3,700 | 18.9 | -5.4 | 16.4 | -9.7 | 13% | 3% | 0.87 | -0.37 | 0.87 | -0.34 | 10 | 6.7 | 1.98 | 6.8 | 1.83 | |
| Pat Connaughton | $4,200 | $4,900 | 23.7 | 1.9 | 17.6 | 15.0 | 13% | 4% | 0.74 | 0.53 | 0.73 | 0.50 | 2 | 1.3 | 0.30 | 1.2 | 0.25 |
The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and this series.
Miami Heat Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Vincent | $4,500 | $4,100 | 25.9 | -1.8 | 17.9 | 0.8 | 17% | 1% | 0.69 | 0.09 | 0.67 | 0.02 | 27 | 17.9 | 3.98 | 17.3 | 4.21 | |
| Max Strus | $5,300 | $4,600 | 28.4 | 2.6 | 20.9 | -4.6 | 17% | -9% | 0.74 | -0.21 | 0.70 | -0.17 | 34 | 20.7 | 3.91 | 19.6 | 4.27 | |
| Jimmy Butler | $9,400 | $9,600 | 33.4 | -0.3 | 42.2 | 7.3 | 25% | 6% | 1.26 | 0.23 | 1.29 | 0.20 | 39 | 51.4 | 5.47 | 51.8 | 5.39 | |
| Kevin Love | $4,400 | $4,100 | 20.0 | -1.9 | 20.4 | 2.0 | 19% | -2% | 1.02 | 0.22 | 0.97 | 0.28 | 21 | 20.8 | 4.73 | 19.7 | 4.81 | |
| Bam Adebayo | $7,700 | $7,800 | 34.6 | -5.4 | 40.1 | -3.3 | 25% | 4% | 1.16 | 0.10 | 1.16 | 0.09 | 36 | 43.6 | 5.66 | 42.8 | 5.48 | |
| Caleb Martin | $5,000 | $4,800 | 29.3 | -0.2 | 20.9 | 5.9 | 14% | 2% | 0.71 | 0.21 | 0.72 | 0.16 | 30 | 19.2 | 3.85 | 19.3 | 4.03 | |
| Kyle Lowry | $4,900 | $4,500 | 31.2 | -9.7 | 26.9 | -10.5 | 16% | 0% | 0.86 | -0.10 | 0.84 | -0.09 | 27 | 22.6 | 4.61 | 21.9 | 4.86 | |
| Duncan Robinson | $4,000 | $3,800 | 16.4 | 2.1 | 11.1 | 8.6 | 17% | 2% | 0.67 | 0.39 | 0.63 | 0.31 | 23 | 17.5 | 4.38 | 16.3 | 4.28 |
The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and this series.
Game Analysis
This series could look a lot different if not for the injury to Giannis Antetokounmpo. He played 11 minutes before hurting his back in game one and hasn’t been able to return to the lineup since. Well, technically, he tried to come back into the first game, but that was short-lived. The Heat have had to deal with a major injury of their own (Tyler Herro), but have been able to win two games in convincing fashion. A win tonight for Miami would put them up 3-1 with three games to play. A win for Milwaukee would allow them to steal back home-court advantage. This game features a 6-point spread and a 216-point total.