Free Premium! NBA DFS Playoff Primer: Monday, May 29th
The NBA postseason is finally upon us. We no longer have to worry about players resting, late scratches, and teams trying to lose. For the next couple of months, we get meaningful basketball game after meaningful basketball game. We have decided to combine the Core Plays and the Grind Down into one all-encompassing article for the NBA playoffs. We will break down each slate, sift through the game flow trackers of prior meetings between teams, cover the notable matchups, and provide our favorite NBA DFS targets.
Wow. That’s really the only word that comes to mind to describe Game 6. The Heat felt like they were dead for most of the second half. Their two best players shot a combined 9-for-37 from the field and yet they somehow took a lead with three seconds left to play. Everyone is going to remember the final play of the game, but we shouldn’t forget about the clutch free throws that Jimmy Butler hit to give the Heat the lead. Unfortunately for Miami fans, the last-second shot from Marcus Smart bounced right into the hands of Derrick White for a late tip-in.
Game 6 is nearly impossible to top, but we have ourselves a Game 7 to look forward to on Monday night. Let’s dive into the slate.
Game 7: Miami Heat at Boston Celtics
- Time: 8:30 PM ET
- Series: Heat 3 – Celtics 3
Series Matchups
- Game 1: MIA 123 – BOS 116
- Game 2: MIA 111 – BOS 105
- Game 3: BOS 102 – MIA 128
- Game 4: BOS 128 – MIA 120
- Game 5: MIA 97 – BOS 110
- Game 6: BOS 104 – MIA 103
Notable Injuries
Tyler Herro – Out
Gabe Vincent – Questionable
Malcolm Brogdon – Probable
Miami Heat Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Vincent | $5,200 | $9,000 | 25.9 | 10.2 | 17.9 | 8.4 | 17% | 0% | 0.69 | 0.04 | 0.67 | 0.04 | 39 | 25.7 | 4.93 | 24.4 | 2.72 | |
| Max Strus | $4,800 | $7,500 | 28.4 | 0.1 | 20.9 | -5.3 | 17% | -4% | 0.74 | -0.19 | 0.70 | -0.18 | 28 | 17.3 | 3.61 | 16.4 | 2.18 | |
| Jimmy Butler | $13,600 | $16,500 | 33.4 | 5.6 | 42.2 | 6.4 | 25% | 4% | 1.26 | -0.02 | 1.29 | -0.01 | 43 | 52.7 | 3.87 | 52.8 | 3.20 | |
| Caleb Martin | $7,000 | $10,500 | 29.3 | 4.8 | 20.9 | 11.1 | 14% | 4% | 0.71 | 0.22 | 0.72 | 0.19 | 40 | 29.4 | 4.20 | 28.7 | 2.74 | |
| Bam Adebayo | $9,000 | $14,000 | 34.6 | 0.9 | 40.1 | -5.4 | 25% | -3% | 1.16 | -0.18 | 1.16 | -0.20 | 42 | 43.1 | 4.79 | 42.4 | 3.03 | |
| Kyle Lowry | $5,600 | $8,500 | 31.2 | -6.4 | 26.9 | -7.5 | 16% | 1% | 0.86 | -0.08 | 0.84 | -0.05 | 20 | 16.0 | 2.86 | 15.4 | 1.81 | |
| Duncan Robinson | $3,800 | $7,500 | 16.4 | 1.9 | 11.1 | 7.9 | 17% | 5% | 0.67 | 0.36 | 0.63 | 0.34 | 18 | 11.5 | 3.03 | 10.7 | 1.42 | |
| Cody Zeller | $1,200 | $6,000 | 14.4 | -5.1 | 13.5 | -6.3 | 18% | -3% | 0.94 | -0.16 | 0.94 | -0.14 | 6 | 5.1 | 4.23 | 5.0 | 0.83 | |
| Kevin Love | $2,800 | $6,500 | 20.0 | -7.7 | 20.4 | -7.8 | 19% | 1% | 1.02 | 0.01 | 0.97 | 0.03 | 2 | 1.8 | 0.64 | 1.7 | 0.26 | |
| Haywood Highsmith | $2,000 | $6,500 | 18.0 | -3.9 | 12.0 | -3.2 | 12% | -2% | 0.67 | -0.04 | 0.68 | -0.04 | 2 | 1.0 | 0.52 | 1.0 | 0.16 |
The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and this playoff series.
Boston Celtics Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Smart | $7,800 | $11,000 | 32.1 | 2.0 | 28.6 | 1.7 | 18% | 0% | 0.89 | 0.00 | 0.88 | -0.02 | 38 | 32.5 | 4.17 | 31.3 | 2.84 | |
| Derrick White | $6,400 | $12,000 | 28.3 | 1.1 | 26.4 | 0.8 | 17% | -2% | 0.93 | -0.01 | 0.93 | 0.01 | 36 | 27.2 | 4.24 | 26.8 | 2.23 | |
| Jaylen Brown | $9,200 | $13,500 | 35.9 | 0.4 | 43.5 | -10.7 | 31% | -3% | 1.21 | -0.31 | 1.17 | -0.29 | 38 | 39.5 | 4.30 | 37.7 | 2.79 | |
| Jayson Tatum | $13,800 | $17,500 | 36.9 | 3.7 | 52.4 | -0.2 | 32% | -3% | 1.42 | -0.13 | 1.37 | -0.14 | 41 | 54.4 | 3.94 | 51.1 | 2.92 | |
| Al Horford | $6,600 | $10,000 | 30.5 | -2.9 | 26.1 | -4.4 | 12% | 0% | 0.85 | -0.07 | 0.85 | -0.03 | 30 | 23.5 | 3.56 | 23.0 | 2.30 | |
| Malcolm Brogdon | $5,400 | $7,000 | 26.0 | -4.9 | 28.0 | -14.5 | 22% | -4% | 1.08 | -0.44 | 1.05 | -0.42 | 15 | 13.7 | 2.53 | 13.3 | 1.89 | |
| Robert Williams | $4,400 | $8,000 | 23.5 | -3.8 | 24.2 | -5.4 | 11% | 4% | 1.03 | -0.08 | 1.08 | -0.08 | 18 | 16.1 | 3.66 | 16.9 | 2.11 | |
| Grant Williams | $3,400 | $7,000 | 25.9 | 0.6 | 18.5 | -1.2 | 13% | -2% | 0.71 | -0.06 | 0.70 | -0.05 | 24 | 14.9 | 4.39 | 14.6 | 2.08 |
The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and this playoff series.
Game 7 Analysis
Both teams have a reason to be optimistic heading into tonight’s game. The Celtics have a chance to be the first team to ever comeback from a deficit of 0-3 and escaped Game 6 with a miraculous buzzer-beater. The Heat have already proven that they can win in Boston, and it’s hard to imagine their two superstars shooting worse than they did on Sunday night. There are few things better than a Game 7 with a trip to the NBA Finals on the line, so hopefully the game can live up to the hype. The Celtics are listed as 7.5-point favorites, and the game features a total of 203.5 points.
Gabe Vincent returned to the lineup in Game 6, and it didn’t look like his ankle was bothering him. He didn’t shoot the ball particularly well but played 41 minutes and scored 23 fantasy points. He has now scored at least 15 actual points in four of his five games in this series. At his price point, he’s one of the more reliable values for tonight’s game. Max Strus has really struggled in this series. He has been held under 20 fantasy points in every game and his playing time is trending in the wrong direction — he has played fewer than 26 minutes in four of the last five games.
Kyle Lowry is the ultimate wildcard for large-field tournaments. He has had plenty of big outings in the playoffs, but his playing time is extremely volatile. Given his struggles in Game 5 as a starter and the fact that he only played 18 minutes in Game 6, he is going to come in at low ownership. I’d rather chase Lowry’s upside over the struggling Strus at this point. Duncan Robinson might be the best answer, as he has topped 18 fantasy points in four of the last five games. He hit clutch shot after clutch shot in Game 6 and may have earned himself a bigger role in this winner-take-all Game 7.
After starting the first five games of the series, Kevin Love didn’t crack the rotation at all in Game 6. He’s a very risky option tonight, as a zero is a high probability. Haywood Highsmith played well in Game 5 and started the second half over Love in that outing, but he also didn’t crack the rotation in Game 6. Cody Zeller has been the backup center all postseason, but we did see Omer Yurtseven play the final three minutes of Game 6. I doubt that will happen again, so I feel fine going back to Zeller on DraftKings ($1,200). Caleb Martin has arguably been the second-best player on the Heat in this series and ended up starting in Game 6. Whether he starts or comes off the bench tonight, he should push for 40 minutes. Even at his elevated price point, he’s on my radar for both cash games and tournaments.
Jimmy Butler missed so many easy shots near the rim in Game 6. He obviously made some difficult shots down the stretch, but I point out the short misses to show that he has a lot more upside than the 53 fantasy points that he ended up scoring. Butler has been very relaxed throughout this three-game losing streak and he’s shown up in big games time and time again throughout his career. He deserves consideration at MVP and Captain. Bam Adebayo ended up with 40 fantasy points in Game 6, and it didn’t feel like he played very well. He continues to project well, thanks to a cheap price point. He’s not as big of a priority for me as Butler but obviously deserves consideration in all formats.
After the first four games of the series, I pointed out the low usage rate for Marcus Smart. Naturally, he immediately became more aggressive and had usage rates of 27% and 22% in the next two games. Perhaps he reads the NBA Playoff Primer and wanted to prove me wrong. Smart has offered a decent floor in this series and has had a couple of big outings already. Malcolm Brogdon missed Game 6, but is expected back tonight. It will be interesting to see how much he plays given his struggles in the series and how well Derrick White has played the last few games. As for White, he’s going to be popular after topping 30 fantasy points in three straight games. He’s not nearly as cheap as he was in those outings and he’s bound to have some regression with his three-point shooting (21-for-38 so far in this series). I’m tempted to take an underweight stance tonight.
Jaylen Brown is coming off of his best game of the series. He was much more aggressive attacking the rim and ended up shooting 10 free-throws. That may not seem like a lot for a superstar, but that’s the most he’s had since March 6th. I always worry about his peripheral statistics, but he should play 40-ish minutes tonight. Jayson Tatum has been great over the last three games and in elimination games in general. He’s right there with Butler as the top option at MVP and Captain. Al Horford has had a lot of floor games in this series, but does flash upside every now and then. He’s viable as a contrarian play in tournaments. Robert Williams doesn’t play a lot off the bench, but has been good on a per-minute basis. Grant Williams has made a lot of headlines in this series, and it feels like he’s had a big impact, but has only topped 20 fantasy points one time. He’s not a bad value play here, but he’s not the free square he may seem at the surface.
NBA DFS Targets
Elite Plays – Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Gabe Vincent (DK), Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown
Tournament Targets – Caleb Martin, Marcus Smart, Derrick White, Al Horford
Salary Savers – Gabe Vincent (FD), Kyle Lowry (MME), Duncan Robinson, Cody Zeller (DK), Robert Williams, Grant Williams
Image Credit: Getty Images