NBA DFS Playoff Primer: Wednesday, May 17
The NBA postseason is finally upon us. We no longer have to worry about players resting, late scratches, and teams trying to lose. For the next couple of months, we get meaningful basketball game after meaningful basketball game. We have decided to combine the Core Plays and the Grind Down into one all-encompassing article for the NBA playoffs. We will break down each slate, sift through the game flow trackers of prior meetings between teams, cover the notable matchups, and provide our favorite NBA DFS targets.
Happy Wednesday, family. Last night’s game between the Lakers and Nuggets looked like it was going to end in a blowout for three quarters, but the Lakers had other plans. They battled all the way back and nearly took the lead late in the fourth quarter. Some defensive stands and some made free throws ended up being the difference at the end. The Lakers made some key adjustments in the second half that we will dive into tomorrow ahead of Game 2.
Let’s turn our attention to the start of the Eastern Conference Finals.
Game 1: Miami Heat at Boston Celtics
- Time: 8:30 PM ET
- Series: Heat 0 – Celtics 0
Regular Season Matchups
- BOS 111 – MIA 104 (10/21/22)
- MIA 121 – BOS 134 (11/30/22)
- MIA 120 – BOS 116 (12/2/22)
- BOS 95 – MIA 98 (1/24/23)
Notable Injuries
Tyler Herro – Out
Cody Zeller – Questionable
Miami Heat Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Vincent | $5,000 | $8,000 | 25.9 | 3.5 | 17.9 | 4.7 | 17% | 3% | 0.69 | 0.08 | 0.67 | 0.06 | 28 | 20.8 | 4.15 | 19.7 | 2.46 | |
| Max Strus | $5,600 | $8,500 | 28.4 | 1.0 | 20.9 | -1.3 | 17% | -3% | 0.74 | -0.07 | 0.70 | -0.05 | 33 | 19.1 | 3.41 | 18.2 | 2.14 | |
| Jimmy Butler | $12,200 | $17,000 | 33.4 | 5.7 | 42.2 | 10.4 | 25% | 4% | 1.26 | 0.08 | 1.29 | 0.07 | 40 | 49.1 | 4.03 | 49.7 | 2.92 | |
| Kevin Love | $4,600 | $7,000 | 20.0 | 0.6 | 20.4 | 0.5 | 19% | -3% | 1.02 | -0.01 | 0.97 | 0.02 | 18 | 16.3 | 3.54 | 15.6 | 2.23 | |
| Bam Adebayo | $9,000 | $13,500 | 34.6 | 0.4 | 40.1 | -2.3 | 25% | -1% | 1.16 | -0.08 | 1.16 | -0.09 | 38 | 41.7 | 4.63 | 41.1 | 3.04 | |
| Kyle Lowry | $6,800 | $11,000 | 31.2 | -5.7 | 26.9 | -2.3 | 16% | 1% | 0.86 | 0.10 | 0.84 | 0.14 | 29 | 23.3 | 3.42 | 22.3 | 2.03 | |
| Caleb Martin | $4,800 | $7,500 | 29.3 | -1.8 | 20.9 | 1.3 | 14% | 0% | 0.71 | 0.09 | 0.72 | 0.07 | 27 | 17.7 | 3.68 | 17.7 | 2.36 | |
| Duncan Robinson | $3,400 | $7,000 | 16.4 | 1.3 | 11.1 | 2.4 | 17% | 2% | 0.67 | 0.08 | 0.63 | 0.06 | 13 | 8.3 | 2.44 | 7.7 | 1.10 | |
| Cody Zeller | $1,000 | $6,500 | 14.4 | -5.3 | 13.5 | -6.9 | 18% | -3% | 0.94 | -0.21 | 0.94 | -0.23 | 10 | 8.7 | 8.74 | 8.6 | 1.33 | |
| Haywood Highsmith | $1,000 | $6,000 | 18.0 | -9.7 | 12.0 | -4.9 | 12% | -1% | 0.67 | 0.19 | 0.68 | 0.24 | 4 | 2.4 | 2.36 | 2.3 | 0.38 |
The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and the playoffs.
Boston Celtics Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Smart | $7,000 | $9,500 | 32.1 | 1.7 | 28.6 | 3.1 | 18% | 3% | 0.89 | 0.05 | 0.88 | 0.04 | 37 | 31.6 | 4.51 | 30.3 | 3.19 | |
| Jaylen Brown | $10,200 | $15,500 | 35.9 | 1.8 | 43.5 | -4.4 | 31% | -4% | 1.21 | -0.18 | 1.17 | -0.17 | 39 | 40.3 | 3.95 | 38.3 | 2.47 | |
| Jayson Tatum | $12,400 | $17,500 | 36.9 | 2.6 | 52.4 | 2.9 | 32% | -2% | 1.42 | -0.02 | 1.37 | -0.01 | 41 | 53.5 | 4.31 | 50.4 | 2.88 | |
| Al Horford | $7,200 | $12,500 | 30.5 | 1.5 | 26.1 | 2.4 | 12% | -2% | 0.85 | 0.03 | 0.85 | 0.11 | 33 | 24.5 | 3.40 | 24.0 | 1.92 | |
| Robert Williams | $4,400 | $7,500 | 23.5 | -1.6 | 24.2 | -4.2 | 11% | -1% | 1.03 | -0.12 | 1.08 | -0.11 | 27 | 23.3 | 5.29 | 24.3 | 3.24 | |
| Derrick White | $5,400 | $8,000 | 28.3 | 1.0 | 26.4 | -3.5 | 17% | -2% | 0.93 | -0.15 | 0.93 | -0.16 | 25 | 19.0 | 3.51 | 18.7 | 2.34 | |
| Malcolm Brogdon | $6,200 | $9,000 | 26.0 | 1.7 | 28.0 | -1.2 | 22% | 0% | 1.08 | -0.11 | 1.05 | -0.13 | 29 | 28.3 | 4.56 | 27.2 | 3.03 | |
| Grant Williams | $2,200 | $6,000 | 25.9 | -13.0 | 18.5 | -9.9 | 13% | -3% | 0.71 | -0.04 | 0.70 | -0.03 | 6 | 3.4 | 1.53 | 3.3 | 0.55 | |
| Sam Hauser | $1,000 | $6,000 | 16.1 | -7.9 | 13.1 | -8.8 | 14% | -4% | 0.81 | -0.29 | 0.79 | -0.28 | 3 | 1.6 | 1.57 | 1.5 | 0.25 |
The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and the playoffs.
Game 1 Analysis
As noted yesterday, these are the same matchups that we saw in the Conference Finals the year of the bubble. It’s pretty incredible how that worked out, especially with the Lakers being the seven-seed in the West and the Heat being the eight-seed in the East. The Celtics and Heat split the regular season series at two games apiece, but Boston is the big betting favorite, both in Game 1 (8.5-point spread) and in the series (-525). Miami isn’t getting a lot of respect from the betting market, but the same was true in the first round against the Bucks and the second round against the Knicks.