NBA DFS Picks Today (12/22): DraftKings & FanDuel Top Plays, Sleepers
Just 6 games on the NBA DFS slate for tonight, which is light for a typical Friday. Of course, we have about a zillion games tomorrow, so that’ll be fun. Plenty of teams will be on the first half of a back-to-back tonight, so there is certainly potential for shenanigans once injury reports start to roll in later on.
Below, you’ll find a few NBA DFS picks that stand out on DraftKings and FanDuel as of the early afternoon hours. If you’re looking for more in-depth analysis, sign up for RG Premium.
Top NBA DFS DraftKings Lineup Optimizer Value
PG/SG Jaden Hardy ($4,300)
There’s a pretty good chance that Jaden Hardy tonight is the best value play we’ve had all season. The Mavs will be without all of Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, Dante Exum, Dereck Lively, and Josh Green when they face the Rockets in Houston. Another guard, Seth Curry, is questionable with a back injury. Jaden Hardy and AJ Lawson are really the only true guards left on the roster, and it’s fair to assume Hardy will start and play massive minutes by default.
In 89 minutes of action this season with just Doncic and Irving off the floor, Hardy’s sporting a hefty 31.7% usage rate next to a 1.36 DK FP/min. average. Even in a subpar matchup against a newly-stingy Houston defense, I have no idea how you’d fade this guy in any format.
Hardy is projected for north of 70% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel at his sub-$5,000 salaries. Efficient ownership given the spot would be 100%, yet he won’t get there. He’s popping as an insane value in 32 projected minutes, and there’s certainly upside for more than that. Just play him. On both sites. In all formats. Don’t overthink it.
Top NBA DFS FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Value
SF Jaime Jaquez ($5,600)
The Heat will be without Jimmy Butler for a second straight game tonight when they square off at home against Atlanta. The Hawks have been one of the best matchups in the sport all year. They’re 27th in defensive rating and 5th in pace. We’ve talked a lot about the Pacers, but the Hawks are essentially the same team from a matchup standpoint.
Most of Butler’s vacated usage will get sucked up by Tyler Herro (29.4%) and Bam Adebayo (29.4%), but Jaime Jaquez should start and see heavy minutes. The rookie has quickly become an important glue guy for Miami, contributing 0.87 FP/min. with solid all-around numbers in 446 minutes played so far this season with Jimmy off the floor.
$5,600 on FanDuel is cheap enough for Jaquez after he logged 34 minutes in a start the other night. He didn’t do much in that outing against a much-improved Magic defense, but there should be more fantasy goodness to go around tonight against those high-flying Hawks.
NBA DFS Sleepers
PG Stephen Curry ($9,600 DK, $8,800 FD)
Stephen Curry has felt overpriced for much of the year. While he’s still great, we haven’t seen a consistent fantasy ceiling out of the future Hall-of-Famer. Curry is still leading Golden State in usage (30.9%) with a tidy 1.28 FP/min. average, but that pales in comparison to the Jokices and Embiids of the world at the top of the salary spectrum.
Tonight, though, the Dubs draw one of those elite matchups against the lowly Washington Wizards. The Wiz are on the second half of a back-to-back after playing in Portland last night. They’re already 29th in defensive efficiency on the year, and something tells me potential fatigue won’t improve their chances of getting consistent stops this evening.
We do have some value tonight, which is why guys like Joel Embiid are projecting to be popular. Curry figures to gain some traction at only $8,800 on FD, but I’d expect most to balk at that $9,600 DK salary despite the favorable spot.
PG Fred VanVleet ($8,200 DK, $8,700 FD)
We’ll be playing a bunch of the Dallas value tonight. Hardy is the obvious play, but guys like Tim Hardaway, Derrick Jones, and Grant Williams all make for viable targets, too. In theory, it’s logical to get at least some exposure to their opponent, the Rockets, as well.
Houston is favored over this Dallas skeleton crew, but only by 8 points. Can the Rockets score efficiently enough to actually blow them out? Debatable. Fred VanVleet is once again leading the league in minutes despite no longer having Nick Nurse as his head coach. Houston’s offense dies with FVV off the floor, which is why they can’t afford to keep him on the bench for too long.
VanVleet’s up to $8,700 on FD after a big outing against Atlanta the other night, but $8,200 on DK certainly isn’t too much to pay. Given the wealth of spend-up options available tonight, VanVleet’s ownership won’t be all that significant, either.
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