NBA DFS Picks Today (11/13): DraftKings & FanDuel Top Plays, Sleepers
The NBA schedule looks a little different this week. We’ve only got 4 games on the docket for Monday night, while the Tuesday schedule is a bit more jam-packed than usual. At first glance, value could be hard to come by on DraftKings and FanDuel for the 4-gamer tonight, and we’re not currently waiting on any major news. De’Aaron Fox is expected to miss another game for the Kings, while OG Anunoby and Gary Trent are both questionable for the Raptors.
Below, you’ll find a few NBA DFS picks that stand out on DraftKings and FanDuel as of the early afternoon hours. If you’re looking for more in-depth analysis, sign up for RG Premium.
Top NBA DFS DraftKings Lineup Optimizer Value
PG Keon Ellis ($3,900)
It didn’t take long for Mike Brown to do away with the Davion Mitchell experiment. Keon Ellis replaced Mitchell in the starting lineup a couple of games ago as the team struggled mightily to combat the loss of Fox. Sacramento was blown out in each of Mitchell’s starts, while they’ve won consecutive games since Ellis took the job. We’re projecting Ellis to start again tonight when the Kings face the Cavs.
Ellis hasn’t been great so far, but he’s affordable and seems to have a trustworthy enough role. His 0.89 FP/min average so far with Fox off the floor is solid enough, even on limited 16.9% usage. It’s also worth noting he played 10 more minutes in the last game (31) than he did in his first start, and we have him conservatively projected to log 28 in tonight’s game.
The matchup against a defensive-minded Cavs team isn’t ideal, but Ellis currently rates out as one of the best point-per-dollar values on the slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel. I’m admittedly concerned about trusting Ellis too much at what could be extremely high ownership, so here’s hoping some better value emerges before lock rolls around.
Top NBA DFS FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Value
SF/PF Deni Avdija ($5,900)
The new-look Wizards are off to a disastrous start, and they’re hefty 10-point underdogs tonight in Toronto. There is blowout risk here even against a not-great Raptors outfit, but I won’t be playing the blowout game on a slate with limited options. If it happens, it happens.
Deni Avdija is low in the pecking order when it comes to usage (19.9%) with this team, but he’s happy to do just about everything else. He’s still contributing a steady 1.06 FP/min, and it’s nice to see his minutes trending in the right direction. Avdija has been out there for at least 31 minutes in each of the last 2 games after failing to top 30 in any of the first 7.
I think a balanced build is a viable approach given the dicey value out there, and Avdija makes sense as a useful cog capable of filling either forward slot.
NBA DFS Sleepers
SF/PF Jayson Tatum ($10,000 DK, $10,600 FD)
Jayson Tatum is a superstar, of course, so it’s also weird to call him a “sleeper.” Still, the Celtics’ main man is projecting for very low ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel at his 5-figure salaries. Domantas Sabonis, Donovan Mitchell, and Giannis Antetokounmpo are all projected to be more popular among the spend-ups tonight.
We haven’t seen a consistent ceiling from Tatum, which probably shouldn’t be a surprise considering he’s essentially playing as a part of the Celtics’ All-Star starting lineup. He is, however, still leading the team in usage (28.9%), while he’s second to only Al Horford among regular rotation players in rebound rate.
Boston is a healthy 9.5-point favorite at home tonight over the Knicks. New York has again been among the league’s best defensive teams this season, but I’m happy to take my chances with Tatum in tournaments if he’s going to be contrarian. It isn’t all that easy to get star players at lower ownership on short slates, and it’s worth noting we saw Tatum hang 34 points and 11 rebounds on the Knicks in the season opener.
PG Damian Lillard ($9,200 DK, $8,600 FD)
Damian Lillard has missed the Bucks’ last 2 games with a bad calf, but he’s probable to return tonight when the Bucks host the Bulls. This is another game with a wide spread (MIL -9.5), but I don’t really trust this version of the Bucks to blow anybody out right now. Lillard’s return should help, but this team still looks like a work in progress.
Dame’s no longer going to play the massive offensive role he did during his days in Portland, but he’s still generating healthy usage (28.6%) and contributing 1.17 FP/min through his first 7 games with Milwaukee. Dame’s $8,600 FD salary could lead to some ownership, but it sure looks like absolutely nobody will be looking his way on DK (5% pOWN%).
The Bulls played just last night, and their defense has fallen off a cliff this season. Chicago is just 21st in defensive rating, and I don’t see much reason to expect improvement moving forward from this aging, tired roster. Even if the ceiling isn’t what it used to be, we’ve still seen a pretty high floor from Lillard thus far. He makes for an appealing way to spend your money differently in tournaments.