NBA DFS Picks Today (11/17): DraftKings & FanDuel Top Plays, Sleepers
11 games populate the NBA schedule for Friday as the league resumes In-Season Tournament play. Hooray! This slate also features a slew of star players with questionable tags, so it’s shaping up to be a glorious mess. There’s a prettay, prettay good chance your lineup builds this afternoon will look nothing like those you actually enter into your contests this evening because of injury news. As always, keep an eye on Twitter heading into and through lock for updates.
Below, you’ll find a few NBA DFS picks that stand out on DraftKings and FanDuel as of the early afternoon hours. If you’re looking for more in-depth analysis, sign up for RG Premium.
Top NBA DFS DraftKings Lineup Optimizer Value
SG Malaki Branham ($3,900)
The Spurs will be without Devin Vassell tonight against the Kings because of an adductor injury, while Tre Jones is doubtful with a bad hammy. Malaki Branham is the guy we have projected to start in place of Vassell, and we have him set at 30 minutes here with Jones also expected to sit.
Branham has played more minutes (115) than any other Spur this year with Vassell and Jones off, though he’s only contributed 0.7 FP/min. Since the beginning of last year, however, he’s up to 0.78 FP/min on about 20% usage. The matchup is a good one, as this game has one of the highest totals on the board (236) and should be played at a very brisk pace.
Branham projects as the best point-per-dollar value on the slate on DraftKings as of this writing, which has his ownership all the way up at 53%. Needless to say, I’d prefer to play someone else and take my chances if Branham is going to be rostered by over half the field. With all of the questionable players, however, we’re very likely to see Branham’s pOWN% dip throughout the day.
Top NBA DFS FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Value
PF/C John Collins ($5,300)
Walker Kessler is still absent from the Jazz lineup as a result of an elbow injury. John Collins has slid over to the starting center spot in the interim, and he’s given his new team some solid minutes. The former Atlanta Hawk is averaging 1.07 FP/min with Kessler on the bench, even with limited usage in the 19% range.
Collins’ minutes have been wonky, but I wouldn’t look too far into it. The Jazz have been involved in a shocking number of blowouts so far this season, and they’ve been on the business end of their fair share. I suppose there’s some blowout risk in this game with the Suns in town, though Utah is only a 5.5-point home ‘dog. If the Jazz can keep it close, Collins should see mid-30s minutes. We have him at 33.
$5,300 on FD is just too cheap for Collins in this role. He’s $900 more expensive on DraftKings, yet he still projects quite well over there. This feels like good chalk on FD.
NBA DFS Sleepers
PF Aaron Gordon ($6,600 DK, $7,500 FD)
The Nuggets will still be without Jamal Murray when they head down to the Big Easy for a date with the Pelicans tonight. Nikola Jokic (2.02 FP/min!) is the very obvious headliner, but Denver has also gotten good minutes out of Aaron Gordon (1.09) in these situations. After enduring a weird slump during the Nuggets’ title run, Gordon has gotten off to a very hot start this season.
He’s not a huge source of usage (19%), but he’s quietly second on the team in both assist rate and rebound rate with Murray off the floor this season. The minutes have also been there, as Gordon’s routinely pushing for 40 minutes in competitive games. He’s logged at least 34 in each of the last 6 games, and Denver is only a 5.5-point road favorite tonight.
Gordon is a fine midrange flier at $7,500 on FD, but he’s mispriced for this role at $6,600 on DraftKings. The Pels have slumped to 21st in defensive efficiency so far this season.
SG/SF Austin Reaves ($6,100 DK/FD)
The Lakers draw one of the best matchups on the board against the Blazers tonight in Portland. They’re a healthy 9.5-point favorite as a result, and their 116 implied team total ranks as one of the highest on the slate. Jarred Vanderbilt and Gabe Vincent are sidelined, while LeBron James is questionable again.
Austin Reaves has been relegated to the bench, but he’s still playing enough to offer some upside. He’s still at 0.94 FP/min for the year, and he’s been particularly productive of late. Reaves has flirted with triple-doubles in consecutive games, and he’d be one of the primary beneficiaries if LeBron were to sit. I don’t necessarily expect James to miss this game, but a Q tag is a Q tag.
Reaves’ $6,100 salaries around the industry are perfectly reasonable for the role he’s playing. He’s currently projected for ownership in the low double digits on both sites, though that could come down depending on what news breaks as the day progresses.