NBA DFS Projections: Best DraftKings and FanDuel Picks - Tuesday, March 8th
Hello Grinders, we have a six-game slate on this Tuesday night. We’ll go through the top NBA DFS picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel, highlighting key plays using data from our RotoGrinders Premium tools.
NBA DFS, DraftKings Projections and Picks
Cameron Payne – If there’s a clear chalk play on this slate, it is going to be Cameron Payne on DraftKings. With Devin Booker, Chris Paul and Cameron Johnson out, Payne has moved into the starting lineup and has been thriving. Since returning from a wrist injury, he has seen his minutes increase from 20 > 32 > 35. Our RotoGrinders projections have him projected for a similar workload tonight against the Orlando Magic. Payne has been in amazing form lately too, coming off games of 46.25 and 39.5 DraftKings points. What’s been interesting to me is that despite being down several players, the Suns still refuse to use Elfrid Payton. Last game against the Bucks, the Suns used a tight nine-man rotation with Aaron Holiday essentially being his back up, meaning Payne is going to see all the minutes he can handle. The bottom line here is the floor and ceiling are just too hard to ignore here. Payne’s RG Value score is nearly twice the value of the next closest player, and he holds the highest Smash Percentage among all players on DraftKings.
Kevin Love – The Cavaliers suffered a big loss last game, losing Jarrett Allen to a broken finger. Allen will be out indefinitely but that leaves a massive void in the Cleveland front court. Our projections team is expecting Cedi Osman to move into the starting lineup, allowing Kevin Love to remain in the second unit as the main offensive weapon. The RotoGrinders CourtIQ tool shows that when all of Allen/Sexton/LeVert have been off the court this season, Kevin Love has led the team with a 26.5% usage rate and has averaged 1.25 fantasy points per minute. On tap for tonight is a matchup against the Indiana Pacers, who have become a bottom-five defensive team this season. Some DFS players might view Love coming off the bench as a bad thing, but I’m viewing it as a good thing knowing he’s going to have all the usage he wants playing alongside second-unit players like Dean Wade and Brandon Goodwin. Love is firmly in play for me in all formats tonight on DraftKings as he’s a top pick from my perspective.
Landry Shamet – Everything I wrote up above on Cameron Payne applies to Shamet’s situation. He’s moved into the starting lineup recently and has also been thriving, especially with Cameron Johnson being sidelined. Shamet’s minutes have jumped from 22 > 28 > 34, and he’s coming off a 31.25 DraftKings point performance. It’s worth noting that Shamet is generally not a great per-minute producer. On the season, Shamet has averaged 0.70 fantasy points per minute. When Booker/Paul/Johnson have been off the court this season, CourtIQ shows that number jumps up to 0.84 fantasy points per minute. To put this into perspective, Cameron Payne averages 1.11 fantasy points per minute when all three of those teammates have been off the court. Still, the appeal with Shamet is that he’s in-line for another start and costs just $3,700 on DraftKings. This puts him as a top-five option in terms of RG Value scores, and a top-two option in terms of Smash Percentage among all players on this slate. To see where others compare, make sure to sign up for RotoGrinders Premium access.
NBA DFS, FanDuel Projections and Picks
Kevon Looney – The dynamics on FanDuel are interesting for this slate because there just isn’t much depth at the center position. As a result, we currently have Kevon Looney popping as the highest projected owned center to start the day. It’s odd considering Looney hasn’t been someone we’ve targeted often as his ceiling isn’t massive, but he costs just $4,400 on FanDuel and is coming off a 34.2 FanDuel point performance against Nikola Jokic. You could argue that Andre Drummond at just $100 more has a higher ceiling, especially with LaMarcus Aldridge ruled out, but Drummond has seen his minutes trend down lately as he hasn’t reached 20 minutes in his last three games. It seems that Coach Nash doesn’t trust him down the stretch, as he loses 4th quarter rotations to Nicolas Claxton and LaMarcus Aldridge. Maybe that changes tonight with Aldridge out, but your guess is as good as mine. As a result, it does seem like Looney is “safer”, especially with the Warriors down Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala and James Wiseman (Otto Porter remains questionable). Paying down at center feels a bit scary on FanDuel, but there aren’t too many better point-per-dollar options and I’m viewing it as a viable strategy on this shorter slate in order to pay up elsewhere.
Cameron Payne – I normally try not to repeat picks across DraftKings and FanDuel, but this is the type of slate where Payne pops on both sites. There is a clear price difference across sites, as Payne is $5,300 on DraftKings but $6,600 on FanDuel. As a result, I much prefer getting exposure to Payne on DraftKings if given the choice. However, Payne still projects as the top RG Value and Smash Percentage option on FanDuel. Granted, his RG Value score on FanDuel is much lower than it is on DraftKings due to the price difference, but this means that Payne still stands out as a strong option even at an elevated price on FanDuel. This is just one of those slates where it may feel gross to pay up for Payne on FanDuel when you’re getting him at a discount on DraftKings, but he’s still a good value given the new role he’s been thrust into.
Kevin Durant – There are several high-end options to choose from on FanDuel, with Giannis Antetokounmpo, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Kevin Durant being the top three choices. Giannis and SGA are facing one-another, with the Bucks being 13.5 road favorites. I like pairing them in tournaments in the event this game stays closer than Vegas predicts, but if I had to choose a safer high-end option, it would be Kevin Durant for me. Durant is coming off games of 35 and 39 minutes, suggesting he’s facing no limitations from his prior injury. The Nets/Hornets game also projects to be close with Brooklyn as just three-point favorites while also sporting the highest over/under on the slate at 239.5. Our RotoGrinders projections do have Giannis and SGA with higher ceiling projections than Durant, but I could easily see Durant outscoring them if the Bucks/Thunder game blows out and both players lose their 4th quarter rotations.
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