NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 4/7/23
It’s the final Friday of the regular season, and with eleven games on tap with a ton of teams resting most of their starters, it’s going to be another “Stars and Scrubs” type of build day.
The Magic initially ruled out all of their starters again, but now a few are questionable, so TBD on if we get to use Jalen Suggs and Bol Bol as top value plays again. The Heat are on a back-to-back and will sit Adebayo, Butler, and possibly more guys who are currently questionable. The 76ers are on a back-to-back and will sit pretty much all their starters, so Shake Milton is a top play. Phoenix is the other back-to-back team today, and with nothing to play for, I’d expect most of their main starters to end up out once we see their first injury report.
Teams with motivation to win today are TOR, ATL, MIA, BKN, NOP, LAL, MEM, DAL, and GSW, while SAC will only try to win if MEM loses- otherwise they will likely rest their starters.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG.
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses, so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- DeRozan, LaVine, and Caruso are questionable for the Bulls, and I’d expect them to end up out as they have nothing to play for locked into the 10 seed. Coby White and Patrick Williams would almost certainly start, while Dosunmu or Jones could also start if all three sit. (Update: DeRozan, LaVine, and Beverley are OUT)
- Livers and Omoruyi are questionable for Detroit, but with Bagley likely in, I won’t make too much of either Q guys sitting. If both do end up out, I’d expect Hampton to start at SF. (Update: Livers and Omoruyi are OUT)
- McConnell, Smith, and Turner are questionable for Indy, although Turner is pretty much doubtful at this point. If Smith sits, look for Jackson to start at center, while McConnell sitting would make Nembhard a more appealing play with less PG depth behind him.
- Dennis Smith Jr. is questionable for Charlotte, so Theo Maledon would continue to start and be a high upside play if DSJ sits.
- The Magic have a few starters questionable, and if they all sit again, then Jalen Suggs and Bol Bol would be top value plays.
- De’Andre Hunter is questionable for Atlanta, so look for Bey to keep starting if he remains out.
- Brogdon, Smart, White, and Pritchard are questionable for Boston, and I’d expect some if not all of them to sit with nothing to play for today. Whoever ends up starting at PG could be a pretty strong play depending on how many of the other guards end up out.
- RJ Barrett is questionable for the Knicks, so Josh Hart should start again if he remains out.
- AD and LBJ are questionable the Lakers, but they’re motivated to win, so I can’t see either of them sitting.
- The Kings have 7 guys listed questionable, and all will likely sit if Memphis beats the Bucks at 8PM. If that ends up happening, then guys like Terence Davis and Kessler Edwards will be excellent value plays.
- Herro, Strus, and Love are questionable for Miami, so we could be looking at huge minutes for guys like Vincent, Martin, Robinson, and Highsmith. (Update: Herro is OUT)
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- The Wizards remain without their starting lineup, but Delon Wright is back and should start at PG with Goodwin backing him up. Davis and Gill should continue to start at SG and PF.
- Charlotte remains without most of their starters so look for Mykhailiuk, McGowens, and Thor to continue to start.
- Philly will be without most of their starters (TBD on Harris), so guys like Shake Milton and Jalen McDaniels will likely start are top value plays
- Brunson and Randle remain out for the Knicks, so Quickley and Toppin will continue to start and see huge minutes. Robinson is also out now so Hartenstein will likely start and is a strong value option.
- The Bucks are sitting their entire starting lineup, so Carter and Portis are looking at big usage bumps and minutes as the top PG and C. The SG/SF/PF spots will be handled mostly by Matthews, Beauchamp, Crowder, and Ingles.
- The Mavs are sitting Irving, Hardaway, Wood, Green, and Kleber, while Doncic is expected to sit out after playing the 1st quarter. Jaden Hardy is a top value play as the likely starting SG, while Holiday is a candidate to start at SF.
- The Heat are sitting Adebayo and Butler, so Cody Zeller will likely start at center and guys like Martin and Highsmith will see nice bumps in playing time today.
- If the Kings end up sitting everyone, then we could see a starting lineup of Dozier, Ellis, Davis, Edwards, Len, so be prepared to potentially make some late swaps if Memphis beats the Bucks.
- The Suns will sit Durant, Paul, Booker, and Ayton, so look for Payne, Ross, Craig, and Biyombo to join the starting lineup.
- Jaylen Brown is out for Boston so Sam Hauser is a likely candidate to start for him.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- Today I’m looking for safety in minutes and usage in cash games, and I’m looking to avoid most of the teams that have playoff seeds locked and no motivation to extend regulars’ minutes.
- Shake Milton ($4,300), Jaden Hardy ($4,600) and Jevon Carter ($5,200) are my favorite p/$ value guards currently, as each have clear paths to 30+ minutes and are looking at big usage bumps with a ton of other guys out for PHI, DAL, and MIL.
- Svi Mykhailiuk ($6,200), Johnny Davis ($5,500), and Jaden Ivey ($7,400) are other SGs to consider in cash games as all are seeing big minutes and high usage rates lately. Check out our No House Advantage bonus code for new signups, where I like choosing the “more than” 16 points line for Davis today.
- Immanuel Quickley ($7,900) and Obi Toppin ($6,400) are seeing around 40 minutes per game and remain excellent cash game plays today along with Quentin Grimes ($6,800).
- Jay Huff ($4,400) has gone for over 34 FP in back-to-back games and should see around 28 minutes again today, making him a strong value center in cash games.
- Bobby Portis ($7,400) is looking at all the usage he can handle today with Giannis and Lopez out, and he is my favorite PF/C play on FD. Alperen Sengun ($8,200) is another great option to spend some salary on today as he has a great shot at 50+ FP against Charlotte.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Shake Milton ($3,900), Jalen McDaniels ($4,100), Bol Bol ($3,600), Jalen Suggs ($4,100), Isaiah Hartenstein ($4,700), and Jaden Hardy ($5,000) are currently my favorite value plays of the slate.
- Pricier guys that I love for cash games are Bobby Portis ($7,800), Obi Toppin ($6,200), Jaden Ivey ($7,500), Alperen Sengun ($7,700), and Immanuel Quickley ($9,000).
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Getty Images