NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 2/14/23

by Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan) Last Updated 2023-02-14 23:28:44

Just five games today including four teams on a back-to-back in the Magic, Warriors, Trail Blazers, and Wizards. Klay Thompson will play his first b2b of the season, while Kyle Kuzma is back from his ankle injury, and Jerami Grant remains out with a concussion. The Celtics and Raptors have the biggest news of the day and will have more to come with a couple questionable players for each, so let’s get in to what we know now and see how today’s slate is shaping up.

This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.

Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview

There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!

This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!

NBA DFS Injury Roundup

Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.

Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.

• Robert Williams and Grant Williams are both questionable for Boston, so they could be down four starters and have just 10 available players with Brown and Smart still out and Tatum likely out. Blake Griffin would likely start at center if RW sits, and Al Horford would be a higher upside play. GW sitting would give more minutes to Sam Hauser who is already a strong value option, while guys like Pritchard, Brogdon, and Kornet would all see bumps in minutes too. (Update: Tatum is OUT, G. Williams is IN, R. Williams is IN, and Horford is OUT)

• Gary Trent and Precious Achiuwa are questionable for Toronto, so both sitting would make FVV/Barnes/Siakam more appealing plays as the clear top offensive options, while Jakob Poeltl would likely start if either sat. Chris Boucher would be an interesting value play if just Achiuwa sits, while Malachi Flynn would likely see 15-20 minutes if Trent sits, and could see a start if both Q guys end up out. (Update: Trent is OUT, Achiuwa is IN)

• For now I’d consider Kyle Kuzma and Jerami Grant questionable, and if Kuzma sits look for Kispert to start but Avdija to be the better play even off the bench, while Beal and Porzingis maintain their higher ceilings. If Grant remains out I’d expect Thybulle and Reddish to both start again, while Lillard will have to carry even more offense again. (Update: Grant is OUT, Kuzma is IN)

• Cole Anthony is questionable with wrist soreness, and if he remains out look for Suggs and Houstan to pick up most of his minutes. (Update: Anthony is OUT)

If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.

NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target

Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.

• Jayson Tatum is likely out with an illness, so we’ll likely see Payton Pritchard or Grant Williams join the starting lineup with Brogdon keeping his 6th man role. Sam Hauser should continue to start for Brown, and could push for around 35 minutes with the lack of SF depth for Boston today, especially if GW ends up out.

• With Achiuwa questionable we could see Jakob Poeltl draw the start regardless if Achiuwa is active or not, but for now we’re assuming Achiuwa remains the starter until we hear otherwise.

• Klay Thompson is expected to play his b2b of the season today, so the Warriors lineup should remain the same as yesterday unless we see any surprise statuses on their first injury report. (Update: Wiggins is OUT, so Kuminga or DiVincenzo likely start for him)

• Plumlee, Gordon, and Hyland will make their Clippers debut today, so I likely won’t be high on any LAC players in DFS with the crowded and unknown rotations, along with George/Leonard having their minutes monitored before the all-star break.

• Matisse Thybulle started for Grant yesterday, and outplayed the other starter Cam Reddish big time, so there’s a good chance Thybulle starts over Reddish if Grant plays. (Update: With Grant OUT, both Thybulle & Reddish should start)

• TJ Warren and Darius Bazley will be available for the Suns today, which should take some minutes away from guys like Okogie, Craig, and Wainright. Jae Crowder won’t make his Bucks debut today and Jonathan Isaac will sit for rest on the b2b for Orlando.

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.

On FanDuel:

• Matisse Thybulle ($3,700) is popping as the top p/$ play of the slate, as we’re projecting him to start regardless of Grant’s status, and after going for over 35 FP in 26 minutes as a starter yesterday, he will absolutely be my favorite value play if he starts again today. Even if Grant plays and Reddish does start again, Thybulle still has a great chance to go for 6x+ value off the bench, so I will likely have him in my main build regardless of Grant’s status or if Reddish starts over him.

• The Celtics are going to be a popular team for value today as there is so much usage available with Tatum out and possibly Horford and/or RW too. Sam Hauser ($4,800) has seen 31 minutes in three of his last four games, and has gone for over 22 FP in four straight games, so with even more minutes and usage available for him today I think he is just too cheap for the 30+ FP upside he has today. Payton Pritchard ($3,900) will be a very popular value play if he draws the start and will be hard to fade in cash games, while Malcolm Brogdon ($5,600) comes at a great salary today and should see 30-35 minutes even off the bench, putting him in play for cash games. Derrick White ($7,200) only went up $400 after going for his 4th straight game over 35 FP, and should see around 40 minutes today as the top offensive player, so It’s going to be hard to not have at least 3 Celtics in cash games today at these prices.

• Franz Wagner ($5,700) saw a $400 drop in price overnight and is at his cheapest price of the season now, so if you need a solid SG/SF option for under $6k I’d definitely consider him for cash games, especially if Anthony sits out again. Markelle Fultz ($6,400) also saw a nice price drop of $300 after going for over 46 FP yesterday, and would be pressed in to more minutes again if Anthony sits.

• I already mentioned Thybulle, but I definitely want more Portland exposure in my main build as they currently have the highest projected team total of the slate, and guys like Damian Lillard ($10,400) and Anfernee Simons ($6,200) remain underpriced for the upside both bring. Along with the possibility Grant will remain out, I like getting at least one if not both in your cash game lineup today along with Thybulle.

Looking at DraftKings:

• Matisse Thybulle ($3,000) remains my favorite value play as he’s $700 cheaper than FD, and I will pretty much use anyone at minimum price that is likely to see 25+ minutes and possibly 30+ minutes, but especially someone who can fill up the stat sheet in all categories like Thybulle does.

• Payton Pritchard ($3,400) will also be a chalk value play if he starts, while Sam Hauser ($4,600) and Malcolm Brogdon ($5,700) remain too cheap and both will almost certainly make my main build, while Derrick White ($7,100) is also looking too cheap still given his even higher ceiling and usage with Tatum out. Check out our Boom Fantasy promo offer for new signups, where I like betting the over on White’s 31 pts+rebs+asts line there today.

• Kevon Looney ($4,100) is someone worth mentioning as he’s $1,100 cheaper than FD, and coming off a 36.75 FP game in 30 minutes yesterday, he’s still at a price that gives him a great shot at 6-8x value so consider him for your main build if you need a super cheap center today.

• You probably won’t need more value with the Celtics guys along with Thybulle, but Terence Davis ($4,500) is someone worth considering especially in GPPs, as he will see big minutes with Monk still out, and coming off a 39 FP game in 31 minutes a few days ago, we know he has a huge ceiling when given the opportunity, so make sure to have some exposure to him today even if he doesn’t make your cash game lineup.

Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.

NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock

If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.

For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.

Good luck today!

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