NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 1/19/23
Four games on today’s main slate starting at 7:30PM EST, and don’t forget about the game in Paris between CHI/DET for some afternoon enjoyment while you build lineups. Only the Timberwolves are on a back-to-back, so we’ll get their injury report later today. There should be at least a couple questionable players on it after Gobert and Rivers sat yesterday. The Suns will get Cameron Johnson back today and possibly Chris Paul as well, while Kyrie Irving is available for the Nets after missing last game with calf soreness.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled out. Knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses. Knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Jaylen Brown is questionable to return from his groin injury, and if so it would likely move Horford or Williams to the bench and limit the ceilings of the other starters. If Brown remains out, then Tatum has one of the highest ceilings of the slate, and guys like Smart and White are much more appealing plays. (Update: Brown is IN)
- Chris Paul is questionable to return from his hip injury, and if so it would make take the other PGs off the DFS radar and hurt the usage and ceilings of Bridges and Ayton. If Paul remains out then we’d likely see Saben Lee or Duane Washington start at PG, as Shamet is out with foot soreness. (Update: Paul is OUT)
- Rudy Gobert, Anthony Edwards, Taurean Prince, and Austin Rivers are all questionable for Minnesota, so Russell, McDaniels, and Anderson could be looking at big time usage bumps if either of the first two end up out. Naz Reid would likely start again if Gobert sits, while Nowell could see a start if Edwards and Rivers are both out. (Update: Gobert and Rivers are OUT, Edwards and Prince are IN)
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day. Make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- The Suns have the most starting lineup movement today as Chris Paul could return at PG, and Cameron Johnson could start right away at PF or be eased in off the bench. If Johnson does come off the bench then Dario Saric likely remains a starter, and with Booker, Shamet, Okogie, and Payne all out look for Torrey Craig & Damion Lee to maintain sizeable roles. (Update: Paul is OUT, so we’ll likely see Saben Lee or Duane Washington start at PG)
- The Celtics will keep Horford and Williams in the starting lineup even with Jaylen Brown back, as Derrick White will move to the bench.
- The Warriors are going small with Draymond Green at center and Kevon Looney coming off the bench, as Jordan Poole will start for him.
- Irving will be back to join the usual starting lineup for Brooklyn with Durant out, while TOR, PHI, and POR should be business as usual for starters.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- Kyrie Irving ($9,200) dropped another $100 in salary after sitting last game, so he remains underpriced and with four days of rest under his belt he should be ready to go and carry this offense in a big way.
- DAngelo Russell ($6,400) has been pretty frustrating this year with up and down performances, and he has only one game over 40 FP in his last ten. He is now at his lowest salary in almost two months having dropped another $100 overnight, so I will keep targeting him at this price as he is easily a 35+ FPPG player especially if Gobert remains out. Also for MIN, Naz Reid ($5,000) becomes a must play again now that Gobert is officially out.
- Toronto has been DFS gold lately as their starters get by far the most minutes of any team, so I will be looking to use at least a couple of them in my main build. This starts with Pascal Siakam ($9,300) and Fred VanVleet ($7,900). Siakam dropped $200 in salary since last game and is at one of his lowest prices of the season, and with a likely 40 minute floor assuming this game stays tight, his 50+ FP ceiling is just too great to fade for me at this low of a salary. VanVleet should also be looking at huge minutes, and after his salary plummeted to $7.1k last game, it’s still under $8k today and too cheap for someone coming off b2b games of over 59 FP.
- With Chris Paul confirmed out I’d be looking to get Mikal Bridges ($7,100) in your main build, and Damion Lee ($4,800) should see 25+ minutes with Shamet out as well putting him in play as a solid value option. If Saben Lee ($4,000) starts at PG I’d consider him a top value play of the slate.
- More guys I like for the price today include Draymond Green ($6,600), Marcus Smart ($6,300), Kyle Anderson ($6,500), Jaden McDaniels ($5,700), Josh Hart ($5,800), and Jerami Grant ($6,700).
Looking at DraftKings:
- Josh Hart ($4,900) is jumping out as a top value today as his price went down $700 since last game and this is the cheapest he’s been all season. He should still see 30+ minutes in a projected close game with Philly, and for under $5k with a likely 5-6x value output today and possibly even 7-8x+ if he has a ceiling game, I will not be fading him in cash games at this low of a salary.
- Kyle Anderson ($5,600) has been a steal on DK the last couple games, going for around 50 FP in each, and his salary didn’t change at all from yesterday. Even if Gobert plays I’d still consider Anderson for cash games, but if Gobert is out then Anderson will be a lock for me at that price. Jaden McDaniels ($4,800) has also been great lately with four games over 30 FP in his last seven, and his price is still crazy cheap for a starter who should see over 30 minutes with a 4-5x value floor and 6-7x upside. I also want to mention Taurean Prince ($3,600) as he’s $1.1k cheaper than FD and has been averaging around 26 MPG since returning from injury, and with three games over 20 FP in his last four played he is squarely in play as an extreme value option. Naz Reid ($5,000) becomes a must play again now that Gobert is officially out.
- Precious Achiuwa ($3,700) is another extreme value option today as he continues to for 6-7x value, and even though his price went up $400 it’s still cheap enough to consider in cash games to help you fit in more expensive studs. Scottie Barnes ($7,600) comes at a $600 discount to FD and is my preferred TOR starter for cash games, and while FVV and Siakam are slight pricier than FD I’d still consider each in your main build depending on positional needs.
- Mikal Bridges ($6,800) and Damion Lee ($4,600) remain great targets with Paul and Shamet out, and if Saben Lee ($3,200) starts at PG I’d consider him a top value play of the slate.
- Draymond Green ($6,000) went down $200 in salary since last game after he went for almost 50 FP, and is now at his cheapest price in over two weeks, so take advantage of his salary in what should be a very competitive game with Boston. Other value guys I like today include Tobias Harris ($6,100), Torrey Craig ($4,500), Andrew Wiggins ($5,800), and Derrick White ($5,100).
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn