NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 1/9/23

by Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan) Last Updated 2023-01-09 23:20:39

To start the week we have a solid six game slate, and a lot of the slate makeup will depend on who is available for Memphis, as they are the only team on a back-to-back and two of their starters are questionable after sitting yesterday in Morant and Adams. It should also be a pretty high scoring slate as four of the six games currently have totals at 238 or higher while NOP/WSH and MIL/NYK have projected totals under 230 but both have close spreads at 1.5 or lower. LeBron James is a late addition to the big news today as he has been ruled out.

This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.

Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview

There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!

This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!

NBA DFS Injury Roundup

Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.

Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.

• Ja Morant and Steven Adams are both questionable after sitting yesterday while Desmond Bane is off the injury report and should be ready to play his first b2b since returning from his toe injury. If Morant sits then Tyus Jones would start and would be the top value play of the slate while Xavier Tillman would likely start if Adams remains out and he too would be a top value play after scoring over 30 FP in 32 minutes yesterday. (Update: Adams is IN)

• On the other side of that game Keldon Johnson is questionable with his hamstring tightness, and if out we’d likely see Keita Bates-Diop draw another start while Jones, Sochan, and Poeltl would get nice usage bumps and carry most of the offense. Josh Richardson is now questionable too and his minutes would be handled by Langford and Branham if out. (Update: Keldon is OUT, Richardson is IN)

• LeBron James was downgraded to questionable at 2:20PM EST with ankle soreness and with that game tipping at 9PM make sure to have swap options if we don’t learn his status before lock and you want to gamble on him playing. If he ends up out then I’d consider Russell Westbrook a top play of the slate while guys like Schroder and Bryant would also enter close to must-play territory getting huge usage bumps. (Update: LeBron is OUT)

• Javonte Green is questionable for the Bulls so Williams and Jones would continue to get his minutes if he remains out. (Update: Green is OUT)

If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.

NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target

Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.

• Marcus Smart is out so Derrick White should slide over to PG and be a solid value play while Grant Williams will likely join the starting lineup.

• Zion and Ingram remain out for NOP so Trey Murphy and Naji Marshall should continue to start while CJ McCollum remains a top play getting a big usage bump.

• Beal remains out for WSH so Corey Kispert should continue to start with Avdija and Barton also helping at SG while Kuzma and Porzingis will carry most of the offense.

• Immanuel Quickley should continue to start for Barrett while Pat Connaughton should continue to start for Middleton.

• Romeo Langford should continue to start for Vassell and with Bol Bol still out for ORL look for Carter to continue to start at C.

• Brandon Clarke remains out so Aldama and Tillman will continue to get his minutes.

• Troy Brown is out for the Lakers so we’ll likely see Juan Toscano-Anderson start again with Gabriel and the other wings getting slight bumps off the bench.

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.

On FanDuel:

• I’m keeping Tyus Jones ($5,200) and Xavier Tillman ($3,900) on my radar as I’d consider each the top value plays of the slate if Morant and Adams remain out today. Jaren Jackson ($7,600) is already a great play at that price against the Spurs but would vault in to must play territory if any of the other starters get ruled out.

• The Spurs also bring some nice value today as Tre Jones ($6,200) and Jakob Poeltl ($6,400) will have to carry a lot of the offense today especially if Keldon Johnson ends up out, and Poeltl is at his cheapest salary since October. Jeremy Sochan ($5,100) and Romeo Langford ($4,500) are the only other Spurs players I’d consider in DFS today but they do come with pretty low ceilings.

• Naji Marshall ($6,000) saw an $800 price increase from last game and rightfully so as he put up his second straight 40+ FP game in 38 minutes and remains a solid play even at an increased price. CJ McCollum ($8,700) is still a bit too cheap given his upside with Zion out and this may be the last game we can get him for under $9k while Herb Jones ($5,600) is my next favorite Pelicans to target in DFS coming off a 41+ FP game in 33 minutes.

• If you don’t pay up for Jokic or Sabonis at C then I’d strongly consider Mitchell Robinson ($6,200) as he brings 40+ FP upside today as he’s been having to carry more offense with Barrett out and dominated the Bucks the last time they played going for 15 and 20 and over 43 FP. For even cheaper I also like Daniel Gafford ($5,600) who’s been averaging around 30 FPPG since becoming a regular starter.

• With LBJ out now I have to consider Russell Westbrook ($8,500) and Thomas Bryant ($6,800) top plays now along with Dennis Schroder ($5,800) as all are looking at huge usage bumps.

• Other plays I like for the price include Derrick White ($5,400), Grant Williams ($4,300), Immanuel Quickley ($6,400), Michael Porter ($5,500), Wendell Carter ($6,300), and Kevin Huerter ($6,100).

Looking at DraftKings:

• Russell Westbrook ($7,700) has been on fire lately going for 48+ FP in three straight games and comes at an $800 discount to FD putting him squarely in play for cash games again today especially with LBJ now out. Dennis Schroder ($5,700) and Thomas Bryant ($6,300) are excellent plays too while JTA ($3,100) and Gabriel ($3,200) are in play for extreme value if you need it.

• Jaren Jackson ($6,800) is way too cheap given the matchup with the Spurs and the potential for Morant and/or Adams to end up out today and at an $800 discount to FD he is a must play on DK for me today coming off b2b games of 45+ FP.

• Naji Marshall ($5,500) and CJ McCollum ($8,500) both remain too cheap given their expanded roles with no Zion and I will absolutely have Tyus Jones ($4,900) and Xavier Tillman ($3,600) as well if Morant and Adams are out.

• I will likely have two of Thomas Bryant ($6,300), Jakob Poeltl ($5,900), Mitchell Robinson ($5,200), and Daniel Gafford ($4,700) in cash games today as they are just underpriced given their 6-8x value upside and should lose a good amount of ownership to Jokic and Sabonis at C.

• Grant Williams ($3,500) should be a solid extreme value option today assuming he starts and I don’t mind using both Derrick White ($5,100) and Malcolm Brogdon ($5,300) in cash games as they each have 6x+ value upside with no Smart.

• More plays I like on DK include Zach LaVine ($7,500), Markelle Fultz ($6,100), Tre Jones ($6,000), Kevin Huerter ($5,700), Herb Jones ($4,900), Keegan Murray ($4,300), and Romeo Langford ($3,700).

Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.

NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock

If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.

For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.

Good luck today!

Image Credit: Imagn