NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 3/2/23
Small four game slate today, but every game has a spread of five or less currently with two games at totals over 230, so it should be a pretty high scoring slate with close games. Only the 76ers are on a back-to-back but don’t have any injuries to report as Embiid is probable after sitting yesterday. The Wizards are getting Porzingis back but will remain without Morris, while the Spurs will get Vassell and Tre back but will be without Keldon and possibly Branham.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Tyrese Haliburton is questionable with calf soreness, and if he ends up out I’d expect TJ McConnell or Chris Duarte to join the starting lineup, with Nembhard getting more time at PG too. With Haliburton off the floor this season Andrew Nembhard sees a 3.9% usage bump and scores an additional .18 FPPM, while Mathurin sees a 2.4% usage bump and .07 more FPPM.
- If Joel Embiid is out again we’d likely see Tyrese Maxey start again with PJ Tucker moving to center, while Paul Reed would be a solid play as well as he saw 28 minute off the bench and went for almost 40 FP yesterday. Maxey, Harden, and Harris would all get nice usage bumps and be very strong plays. (Update: Embiid is PROBABLE)
- Keldon Johnson, Tre Jones, and Malaki Branham are all questionable for the Spurs, and if all three end up out I’d expect Devonte Graham, Devin Vassell, and Keita Bates-Diop to replace them in the starting lineup. Vassell will likely be on some kind of minutes limit in his first game back, and his price isn’t low enough to put him in play for me today, but Bates-Diop and Graham remain at pretty cheap salaries to consider for cash games if a couple of the Q players sit. (Update: Tre is IN, Branham is IN, Keldon is OUT)
- Ivica Zubac and Marcus Morris are now questionable, so Mason Plumlee would likely start if Zubac sits while Powell or Batum likely start if Morris is out.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- Kristaps Porzingis is back for the Wizards so Avdija goes back to the bench, and with Monte Morris week-to-week now look for Delon Wright to start at PG for the foreseeable future.
- With Devin Vassell back for the Spurs, the only scenario I could see him starting today is if all three questionable players end up out, and even then he’ll probably see around 20 minutes max so not DFS viable, especially if he comes off the bench today. Langford, Roby, and Birch all remain out.
- Curry, Wiggins, and Iguodala remain out for the Warriors, so Donte DiVincenzo should continue to start, and based on last game it looks like Kerr is going back to Looney over Kuminga in the starting lineup for now.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- Delon Wright ($5,000) should start at PG with Morris out, and his price didn’t change from last game in which he went for over 21 FP in 30 minutes. Wright has gone for 27-33 FP in three of his last five games, and even with Porzingis back today I think he’s cheap enough to hit value and go for 25+ FP, and his PG/SG availability should make him easy to fit in your lineup.
- Buddy Hield ($5,900) is the same price as last game too, which is one of his lowest salaries of the season, and with a 4-5x floor in a great matchup with the Spurs, plus the potential of Haliburton being out or limited, I like Hield as a solid cash game play at SG or SF, and if he can get hot from three he’s shown 40+ FP upside this year. Bennedict Mathurin ($5,200) is also a solid play for the price, and I will be all over him if Haliburton sits along with Andrew Nembhard ($4,300).
- Jordan Poole ($7,600) is also the same price as last game in which he went for 40 FP, and with Curry & Wiggins still out, Poole should be looking at 20+ shot attempts again today against a Clippers team he went for 39.4 FP against five games ago. Klay Thompson ($8,300) only went up $100 from last game and remains a solid GPP play for me, as he’ll likely be looking at a lot of Kawhi defense today which makes me hesitant to use him in cash games (he went for 22.4 FP against LAC last time).
- Jeremy Sochan ($5,400) continues the theme of guys staying at the same salaries as their last game and remaining very strong plays, as he’s gone with 31.2 and 28.2 FP in his last two games, and he could be looking a big usage bump if Keldon, Tre, and/or Branham end up out. Sochan can fill the stat sheet in a variety of categories which gives him a solid floor, and in a projected high-scoring, close, and pace-up game with Indiana, this should be a game environment he will thrive in today, and he’s just a bit too cheap to fade in cash games for me today.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Myles Turner ($7,400) is $1,200 cheaper than FD so I prefer him for DK cash games as he’s gone for 40-60 FP in three straight games, and today’s matchup with the Spurs along with the potential of Haliburton being out or limited just gives Turner too great of a ceiling to fade at this cheap of a price. Buddy Hield ($5,600) and Bennedict Mathurin ($4,800) both remain very strong plays for the price as well. Use our No House Advantage promo code for new signups, and I like betting the over Turner’s 9.5 rebounds line there today.
- Tyrese Maxey ($4,900) dropped $300 in salary overnight after going for 46.5 FP yesterday, so even if Embiid plays I think Maxey is a great cash game play as he’s been seeing 25+ minutes off the bench with around a 20 FP floor over his last eight games. If Embiid sits again Maxey will be my #1 p/$ play on DK.
- Delon Wright ($4,600) remains at a great salary if you need a cheap PG, and Donte DiVincenzo ($5,600) is $900 cheaper than FD, so he remains a great value option on DK with Wiggins still out.
- Jeremy Sochan ($5,300) also remains a great PF value especially if Keldon sits, and some other cheap guys I like on DK include Jakob Poeltl ($6,200), Daniel Gafford ($5,300), Tobias Harris ($5,200), Andrew Nembhard ($3,500), and Kevon Looney ($5,400).
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
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