NBA DFS Projections Preview: November 10
We’re ending the week with a great 9-game slate, that will begin with a rematch of the Hornets-Wizards, who just put up 248 points a couple of days ago, and end with the always fun LeBron vs. Durant matchup.
As always on big slates, there are plenty of new injuries, big-name questionable players, and guys coming back from injury to shake up some rotations. Let’s check out all the news and lineup notes before some DFS picks!
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup-building tools on RotoGrinders, as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled out, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates, including weekends, on RotoGrinders.
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses. So knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical, as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room, we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for the upcoming slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Herbert Jones is questionable for the Pelicans after missing last game, so we’d likely see Dyson Daniels start if Jones remains out.
- Alperen Sengun is questionable with an ankle sprain. If out, I’d expect Jock Landale to start at center, and some combo of Jabari Smith, Tari Eason, and Jeff Green all helping there too.
- Dereck Lively is questionable with the illness that kept him out last game, so Dwight Powell would likely start again if no Lively. With Kleber doubtful, we’d also see more minutes for Holmes as the backup center.
- Ziaire Williams and John Konchar are both questionable with hip strains, so Luke Kennard could be looking at a huge role if both end up out, and he could start if Ziaire sits.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team, check out the CourtIQ tool, where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) rates are for any player with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Notes & Analysis
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- The Pistons remain without Ivey, Burks, Harris, Bogdanovic, Morris, and Livers, so Marcus Sasser will keep his 25+ minute role off the bench, and guys like Rhoden and Umude will continue to see solid rotation minutes. Detroit signed Kevin Knox a couple of days ago, so he could also be available to help at the forward spots.
- Terry Rozier remains out for Charlotte, so Brandon Miller will likely continue to start, and Ball/Hayward keep their higher ceilings.
- The Nets starting lineup could go a couple different ways today, as Cameron Johnson is back from his calf injury, but Cam Thomas will be out indefinitely with an ankle injury and Simmons remains out with hip soreness. It all depends if Johnson will start right away or be eased in off the bench to get his conditioning back up, and if it’s the latter, then I’d expect Lonnie Walker to start. O’Neale will almost certainly start for Simmons.
- Al Horford will sit tonight on the front end of tomorrows back-to-back for Boston, so Luke Kornet should take his role as the top bench big man.
- Devin Vassell went from doubtful to active last game but only saw 11 minutes off the bench, so we could see something similar today where he gets 15-20 minutes off the bench with Branham remaining a starter.
- The Jazz shook up their starting lineup last game with Kessler out indefinitely, moving Collins to C, Markkanen to PF, Horton-Tucker to the bench, and starting Keyonte George and Ochai Agbaji. I wouldn’t be shocked if they went back to THT over Agbaji or even gave Olynyk a chance to start, but for now, we have to assume they go with the same starters as the last game.
- The Grizzlies remain a carousel of injuries, with LaRavia doubtful and likely out, joining Adams, Clarke, Rose, and Tillman (Morant still suspended). Look for Biyombo to continue to start at center, and Kennard to have a major role off the bench or even as a potential starter today if Ziaire Williams ends up out.
- The Pelicans remain without McCollum, so Jordan Hawkins should continue to start and be a volatile value play. Zion is back after missing last game for personal reasons.
- Fox remains out for the Kings along with Lyles, and they started Keon Ellis at PG last game instead of Mitchell. Ellis only saw 21 minutes to Mitchell’s 27, so both guys remain hard to trust in cash games, while Sabonis and Monk continue to be the biggest beneficiaries with Fox out.
- Booker remains out for Phoenix, so Grayson Allen should continue to start until he returns, while Durant, Nurkic, and Beal will carry most of the offense.
NBA FanDuel & DraftKings Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- I’m starting my lineup with Keyonte George ($4,300) today, as he is now a starter for Utah, and his price is just too low for someone likely to see 30+ minutes and have a 5-6x value floor. He had 9 assists last game, which was the main reason he put up 21.9 FP, as he shot just 3 for 8 from the field, so if he can hit a few more shots and maybe grab a couple of steals, he will absolutely smash his price today. Jordan Clarkson ($6,400) also remains at a great price coming off a 44.1 FP game if you need another cheap PG/SG.
- Also at SG we have Jordan Hawkins ($4,700), who continues to start for McCollum and see big minutes. Hawkins has been pretty up and down lately, going for 6.2 FP in 29 minutes a week ago and all the way up to 45.9 FP in 37 minutes two games ago. His price remains too cheap for a starter in a projected close game with Houston today, and I’m still targeting him in cash games even with Zion back.
- CHA/WAS is by far the highest projected scoring game today, so I like having a piece or two from each team in cash games. Kyle Kuzma ($7,800) is my top target from the Wizards, as this is probably our last chance to play him for under $8k as he’s gone for 42+ FP in three of his last four games. Not many guys under $8k are chucking 20+ FGA and can also pile up rebounds and assists like Kuzma. LaMelo Ball ($9,100) only went up $300 and remains one of the highest upside plays of the slate in this matchup, while Gordon Hayward ($7,100) went up $200 but is still a fantastic mid-range cash game play who has gone for 37+ FP in all but two games this year.
- At center, Bismack Biyombo ($5,200) is standing out as a top value for cash games, as he’s gone for 34.2 and 23 FP in his first two starts, and his price dropped $200 from last game. He gets a better matchup against Collins than he would have against Kessler, and with very little big man depth for the Grizzlies right now, he should be looking at 27+ minutes if this game stays competitive to the end. PJ Washington ($6,200) would be my top alternate cheap center for cash games if you want a little more guaranteed minutes and floor safety. Still, I think for the $1k salary savings, I’m going with Biyombo and hoping for 30+ FP so I can spend more salary elsewhere.
- Jalen Green ($6,500) and Jabari Smith ($6,300) are standing out as top mid-range values from Houston, and I will almost certainly have at least one of them if Sengun gets ruled out. If you need to fill a final spot or two in the $5-6k price range, then I’d consider Kevin Huerter ($5,400) or Malik Monk ($5,900), as both are carrying more offense with Fox out, and the matchup with OKC should be high scoring and fast-paced.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Keyonte George ($4,700) is a bit pricier than FanDuel, but still cheap enough to be considered a top value play, while Jordan Clarkson ($6,400) and Bismack Biyombo ($4,900) remain great p/$ targets from the UTA/MEM game.
- LaMelo Ball ($10,000) went up $1.1k and isn’t as much of a value compared to his $9,100 FanDuel price, but he still has a 60+ FP ceiling in this matchup and I’d try to fit him in if you have the salary. Gordon Hayward ($7,100) remains a great mid-range target, and Kyle Kuzma ($8,000) is still my favorite play from the Washington side.
- I likely won’t be on Jordan Hawkins ($5,600) in my main build as he’s a bit too pricey given his range of outcomes. I’d rather go with someone like Jalen Green ($6,300) or Derrick White ($5,700) in that price range who have much higher floors.
- Lu Dort ($5,500), Kevin Huerter ($5,400), and Malik Monk ($6,000) are some more cheap targets to consider in your main build. If you need some extreme value then I’d consider Mike Conley ($4,800), Derrick Jones ($4,000) or Luke Kennard ($4,300).
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!