NBA DFS Projections Preview: November 20
We’re starting the week with an eight game main slate that has five teams on a back-to-back, so keep an eye out for the initial injury reports for BOS, DEN, DET, SAC, and HOU.
Let’s check out all the news and notes before some DFS picks!
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup-building tools on RotoGrinders, as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled out, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates, including weekends, on RotoGrinders.
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses. So knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical, as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room, we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for the upcoming slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Kevin Huerter and Sasha Vezenkov are both questionable, so Duarte could start again if Huerter sits, while all the guards would get bumps in minutes and usage if either sit.
- Sengun is questionable with a lower back contusion, and if out we could see Jock Landale start, while Smith and Jeff Green could help at center too, and all the starters would get slight usage bumps.
- (Update: Duren is OUT) – Jalen Duren is questionable after missing four games, and if he returns guys like Stewart and Knox would be off my DFS radar, and all the starters would take usage and ceiling hits. If Duren remains out look for Knox to keep starting with Stewart at center.
- Quentin Grimes is questionable with his left wrist sprain, and if out again, we’d likely see Donte DiVincenzo draw another start and be a strong value play.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team, check out the CourtIQ tool, where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) rates are for any player with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Notes & Analysis
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- Hayes is probable after sitting last game so Ivey should go back to the bench, and either Knox or Duren will likely start depending if Duren ends up in or out.
- White and Horford are out for the Celtics, so Sam Hauser will likely start at SG, and Kornet should take the backup center role.
- Rozier and Richards remain out for Charlotte, so Brandon Miller should continue to start, while Bridges and Thor will help at PF/C behind Washington and Williams.
- Beauchamp remains out for Milwaukee, so more minutes for Connaughton and the other wings.
- McCollum, Nance, and Murphy remain out for the Pelicans, so Dyson Daniels remains a solid play as the starting PG, and Hawkins/Marshall remain the top bench options. Jose Alvarado said he’ll make his season debut today, and Matt Ryan is out a couple weeks with a calf injury.
- Caruso, Mann, and Champagnie should keep their starting roles (Vassell is out), and with Green still suspended, look for Paul to start again with Kuminga off the bench.
NBA FanDuel & DraftKings Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- Dyson Daniels ($5,700) continues to be a plug-and-play in cash games as his price is not adjusting quickly enough to his starting role production. He’s seen 30+ minutes in five of his last six games and has gone for 26+ FP in six straight, yet his price continues to creep up $100 or so every game, and this is probably the last time we will see him under $6k for a while. He will also be playing in the best game environment of the slate against the Kings, which is sitting at a 237.5 total with just a 1.5-point spread, so keep taking advantage of his low salary. Herb Jones ($6,100) is also a bit underpriced for someone who has gone for 41+ FP in two of his last three games, and he’s the best way to get more exposure to this game for cheap.
- MIA/CHI also has a 1.5-point spread, and Alex Caruso ($5,100) is a top value play for me given his steady starting role and price that hasn’t fully adjusted yet. He won’t see huge minutes but 25-30 is a safe bet, and he’s gone for 27+ FP in three of his last four games, so with a likely 5x value floor in a projected tight game that could help him see the higher end of his minutes range, he’s a great p/$ cash game target at the guard spots.
- A couple of other guards I like for the price are James Harden ($7,200) and Chris Paul ($7,200). Harden had his best game as a Clipper a couple of days ago, going for 45.3 FP. Against a poor defensive Spurs team, I think he’ll only continue to get better with his new teammates as they start to figure each other out, and he will certainly be an $8k+ player sooner than later, so I like using him at this discount while we still can. Paul saw 37 minutes last game as a starter even with Curry back (it was an OT game), and against a fast-paced Houston team I think we’ll see a similar role for him with Draymond still out. He’s gone for 32+ FP in four of his last five games, so if need a solid 30+ FP point guard at a very reasonable price that does bring 40+ FP upside, Paul is your guy today.
- At the PF spot Zion Williamson ($8,000) continues to be a value at his current price, especially in the best game to target today for DFS. I think 40 FP is a safe floor for him today and he definitely has a 50-60 ceiling in this type of game, so keep using him in these spots until he starts getting closer to $9k.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Daniels ($5,900) and Jones ($6,300) remain top values for the Pelicans, and Caruso ($4,600) is still a fantastic salary saver for Chicago.
- Harden ($7,800) is a bit pricier than I’d like, but Paul ($7,000) is still at a solid price, but I think I’d go with Fred VanVleet ($7,500) over both if you do need to fill a PG/G/UTIL spot in that price range.
- Either Mark Williams ($6,100) or Brook Lopez ($5,900) are my favorite p/$ cash game centers, while Aaron Gordon ($6,700) continues to be a steady 30+ FP guy for under $7k at PF.
- Corey Kispert ($3,800) continues to see 24+ minutes with Wright out, and he may push for 30+ minutes if this game with Milwaukee turns in to a blowout. He’s gone for 15-22 FP in six straight games, so if you need to fill a final spot in your lineup for under $4k, he’s the guy I’d look to use.
- Miles Bridges ($5,700) comes at a $700 discount to FanDuel and should continue to see 30+ minutes even if keeps coming off the bench. He’s gone for 33.25 and 32.5 FP in his two games played, so 5-6x value should be his floor and his ceiling will continue to grow as his minutes increase, and with Richards still out, his role is even safer today.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!