NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 10/24/22
Eight game main slate to start the week with just a few injuries to monitor so far and with the T-Wolves, Jazz, and Blazers on a back-to-back we’ll see if there’s any rest candidates or new injuries when they release their injury reports later.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Scottie Barnes is the biggest unknown of the day although Nick Nurse thinks Barnes will likely miss time and with the Raptors having one of the lowest team totals of the slate in Miami I won’t be considering Barnes if he somehow ends up available (We are going with doubtful right now in projections). VanVleet and Siakam would be more appealing plays if Barnes is out along with Precious Achiuwa coming off a 30+ FP game in 33 minutes and Chris Boucher will be available for the Raptors after missing the first few games. (Barnes is officially OUT now)
- Alperen Sengun missed shootaround this morning and is questionable with an illness and if he ends up out Usman Garuba would be a top value play on both sites looking easily at 25-30 minutes at C. (Sengun is officially OUT now)
- Dillon Brooks is questionable with his thigh injury and if active would take John Konchar off of my radar but if Brooks remains out I will definitely be looking at Konchar and Santi Aldama for value today.
- Caleb Martin is suspended for today’s game after his tussle with Christian Koloko so look for Max Strus to start for him.
- Justise Winslow is questionable with an ankle sprain which is pretty significant as he’s seeing about 25 MPG off the bench so if he ends up out we could see Hart and Grant push close to 40 minutes each while Little and the other bench forwards would all get bumps.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
Most teams should run out the same starters as their last game with the Pacers shaking it up starting Aaron Nesmith and Isaiah Jackson over Duarte and Taylor. If Max Strus does end up starting for Martin he’d be a solid value play but I won’t be on Dillon Brooks if he is available and starting for Memphis. Usman Garuba got the start for the injured Fernando last game and should be looking at big center minutes with Fernando and Sengun out tonight.
Even though they had to travel on a back-to-back after an overtime game yesterday the Jazz have too good of a matchup to not consider all of their starters and Houston is also one of my favorite teams to target with Porter and Green still too cheap on both sites while my other top game stacks are BKN/MEM, DEN/POR, and SAS/MIN.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- I’m starting with Jalen Green ($6,300) who is still too cheap in what should be a close, high-scoring game with Utah and Kevin Porter ($7,200) is also a bit too cheap still and a fine cash game target as well. Also for HOU Usman Garuba ($4,100) is an excellent value play likely to see pretty big minutes with both Fernando and Sengun out. On the other side of that game I like the price of Kelly Olynyk ($4,800) who should see 30+ minutes if he stays out of foul trouble while Jordan Clarkson ($6,400) and Lauri Markkanen ($7,600) are high upside plays at pretty nice salaries.
- Devin Vassell ($5,800) and Josh Hart ($5,900) are two of my favorite targets under $6k as they’re both averaging over 30 FPPG and won’t be this cheap for much longer. Franz Wagner ($5,900) is another name in this price range that I really like as he’s a safe 35 minute guy who’s been solid this year but when he has that ceiling game you won’t get him at this price anymore.
- Other value guys I like today include Bennedict Mathurin ($5,400), Max Strus ($4,600), Kyle Lowry ($5,300), Terrence Ross ($5,000), Royce ONeale ($5,000), Derrick White ($4,800), and Michael Porter ($5,800).
Looking at DraftKings:
- Jalen Green ($6,300) and Devin Vassell ($5,400) remain two of my favorite guys to start cash game builds with while Kevin Porter ($7,300), Kelly Olynyk ($5,200), Josh Hart ($5,600), and Franz Wagner ($6,100) remain solid plays at their prices.
- Usman Garuba ($3,500) is my favorite play under $4k with Fernando and Sengun out for HOU and I also want to mention Jaylen Nowell ($3,800) as a sub $4k option who’s seen 18-23 minutes over his first three game and averaged around 25 FPPG.
- The 76ers have one of the highest team totals of the slate at home against Indy and Tyrese Maxey ($5,800) is my favorite play for the price to get exposure to their offense and there’s a good amount of guys in the $6-7k range that I’m looking at in cash games such as Jalen Brunson ($6,800), Bennedict Mathurin ($6,300), Tyler Herro ($6,500), Lauri Markkanen ($6,400), Keldon Johnson ($6,900), Cole Anthony ($6,200), Jordan Clarkson ($6,200), and Michael Porter ($6,000).
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn