NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 10/25/22
Just four games on today’s slate but plenty of news to make it an exciting one with some big names already ruled out.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Zion Williamson is the biggest questionable tag of the day dealing with hip and back injuries and if he ends up out then the Pelicans starters are going to be top targets as Brandon Ingram is also out so a ton of usage will be up for grabs between McCollum, Valanciunas, and likely starters Trey Murphy and Larry Nance. (Zion is officially OUT now)
- Herb Jones is also questionable for the Pelicans and his absence could could move Alvarado or Graham in to the starting lineup. (Herb is officially OUT now)
- Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Josh Giddey, and Marcus Morris are all out in the LAC/OKC game so we will see some new starting lineups there and plenty of value is to be had on both sides. (Update: SGA was upgraded from O to Q to IN)
- Kawhi Leonard was ruled out around 6pm EST for rest tonight so whoever starts for LAC are even better DFS plays.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- With George and Morris out the Clippers could go a variety of ways with their starting lineup as Kennard, Covington, Wall, Batum, Mann, and Coffey can all play a variety of positions so for now Reggie Jackson, Norman Powell, and Ivica Zubac are the only sure things as far as LAC starters.
- The Pelicans will almost certainly start Trey Murphy for Ingram and I’d expect Larry Nance to start for Zion while Herb Jones sitting would likely move Alvarado or Graham with the starters or even possibly Naji Marshall.
- Donte DiVincenzo is out for the Warriors so Jordan Poole and Moses Moody are the top bench guards while Ty Jerome will also be available to help.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- Tre Mann ($4,800) and Norman Powell ($3,900) are the first names I’m locking in as their usage and minutes should be pretty high and safe today and they are both just too cheap given their likely floor and potential ceilings.
- He’s not as cheap as he is on DK but I still think Trey Murphy ($5,600) is a great play coming off a game where he saw 39 minutes (overtime included) and with the likelihood he has about a 33 minute floor today I’d consider him a top value/midrange play of the slate.
- There’s going to be a lot of value options to choose from for under $5k and potentially even more once we see who starts for NOP, LAC, and OKC but for now some of my favorite targets are Reggie Jackson ($4,500), Jeremiah Robinson-Earl ($4,800), and Cameron Johnson ($4,300).
Looking at DraftKings:
- Trey Murphy ($4,800) is my favorite play on DK as he should be closer to $6k given his likely role today while Norman Powell ($4,800) and Tre Mann ($5,500) remain top targets as well.
- Deandre Ayton ($6,700) and Chris Paul ($7,000) should be two of the most popular plays of the slate as both are at least $1k too cheap given the likely close and competitive matchup with the Warriors.
- If Luke Kennard ($4,200) or Robert Covington ($4,100) start for LAC then I will definitely consider both as top value plays along with Aaron Wiggins ($3,100) for OKC. I’m also keeping Larry Nance ($5,000) on my radar as a top play if he ends up starting for Zion.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn