NBA DFS Projections Preview: October 27
We’re back with a huge 11-game slate, headlined by the Warriors-Kings game and it’s 238.5 total, which is 9 points higher than any other game today. Holmgren and Wembanyama will look to improve on mediocre opening games, while Cunningham and Strus will look to build on massive performances. The Grizzlies are down another body with Kennard out in a tough matchup with Denver, and the Nets will be without Claxton (ankle) making Sharpe a likely popular value play today.
Let’s check out any other news and lineup notes before some DFS picks!
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup-building tools on RotoGrinders, as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled out, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates, including weekends, on RotoGrinders.
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses. So knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical, as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room, we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for the upcoming slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Darius Garland is “highly questionable” with his hamstring issue, and if he ends up out Donovan Mitchell would be an absolute lock for cash games, and guys like Strus, Okoro, and LeVert would all be in play as top value options. Dean Wade is questionable after sitting out the opening game with an illness, so he could be available to help at the PF/C spots.
- (Update: Simons is OUT 4-6 weeks) – Anfernee Simons is questionable with a right thumb sprain, and if out I’d expect Sharpe to draw the start and be a strong value play. Scoot Henderson would be a higher upside play as well, and Brogdon would get a decent bump too.
- (Update: Johnson is OUT) – Cam Johnson is questionable with a left calf contusion, and if out I’d expect either Finney-Smith or O’Neale to start at PF, and all the starters would get slight minutes and usage bumps.
- Bones Hyland is now questionable with a left ankle sprain, and if out it would mean more minutes for Powell and the other guards.
- Caleb Martin is now questionable with a knee issue, and if out it would mean more minutes for Duncan Robinson and the other guards/wings.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team, check out the CourtIQ tool, where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) rates are for any player with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes, as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- With Claxton out with an ankle sprain, we should see DayRon Sharpe get the start at center for Brooklyn, and at almost minimum price on DraftKings he’ll be a popular cash game target.
- Allen remains out for Cleveland, so I’d expect Isaac Okoro to start again after a huge opening night.
- Luke Kennard has a concussion and is out for Memphis, so look for John Konchar to get in the rotation after he didn’t see minutes Wednesday.
- Josh Richardson remains out for Miami, so Kevin Love should continue to start and is a strong value target today.
- The Mavs ended up starting Maxi Kleber at center instead of Dereck Lively last game, but Lively still saw 8 more minutes than Kleber, and Kidd said Lively would be the starting center going forward.
- Mann remains out for the Clippers, so Robert Covington should continue to start, while Powell and Hyland will benefit the most until Mann returns.
- Draymond remains out for the Warriors, so look for Kuminga and Saric to continue to benefit as the top PF/C backups.
- Jock Landale is out for Houston with a concussion so Smith and Green will have to help at center more, and Devonte Graham will serve the final game of his 2-game suspension today for the Spurs.
- GSW/SAC is the clear top game to have some cash game exposure to, as it’s the highest projected total of the slate by a wide margin. DET/CHA is another game I like targeting, along with OKC/CLE and HOU/SAS.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- Jabari Smith ($5,400) dropped $600 in price from Wednesday after a less than stellar 16.5 FP game in 26 minutes, but that was a 30-point blowout loss to Orlando so I’m not putting much weight into the final box score. Assuming Houston shows up and keeps this game competitive with the Spurs, Smith should easily see 33+ minutes and has a great shot at 5-7x value.
- On the other side of that game, I love the prices of Zach Collins ($6,000) and Jeremy Sochan ($6,100), as both are coming off 30 FP games and their prices only increased by a few hundred. Sochan is especially appealing as his ceiling is sky-high if his shot is falling, as he shot just 2 for 8 from three last game and 4 for 12 overall while still managing 30 FP from all his peripheral stats.
- The Bulls were blown out by the Thunder Wednesday, but Coby White ($5,300) still saw 30 minutes and went for 25.8 FP. His price only went up $400, and if this game with Toronto stays competitive to the end, White should be looking at closer to 35 minutes and is a fantastic salary saver at the PG/SG spot.
- Kevin Love ($4,700) isn’t at the point of his career where we can expect 30+ minutes nightly, but this cheap of a salary and a 25+ minute projection makes him cash game viable in my opinion, as the value options under $5k aren’t exactly plentiful on FanDuel today. Love double-doubled last game and went for 27 FP while only making four FGs, so he definitely has a higher ceiling if he can make a few more shots, and his floor should be safe enough at this low of a salary to help you fit in more studs.
- More value options I like for cash games today include Xavier Tillman ($6,700), RJ Barrett ($6,300), Max Strus ($6,100), Jalen Williams ($5,800), Scoot Henderson ($5,500), and Jonathan Kuminga ($5,100).
Looking at DraftKings:
- DayRon Sharpe ($3,300) should start for Claxton today, and at almost minimum price, he should easily pay off his salary even at his 24-minute projection. There is definitely plenty of value on DraftKings and I don’t mind fading him in cash games to be different than the majority of lineups, but like Toppin on Wednesday, if Sharpe goes for 20+ FP he will almost certainly be in optimal builds.
- Coby White ($4,900), Kevin Love ($4,300), Jabari Smith ($5,300), Zach Collins ($5,700), and Jeremy Sochan ($5,000) remain some of my favorite core cash game value targets, with Sochan and White basically must plays in my opinion at those prices.
- Mark Williams ($5,800) and Xavier Tillman ($5,800) both had huge 40+ FP first games, and their salaries only went up a few hundred each. I prefer using both over Collins on DraftKings compared to FD, where Collins is $700+ cheaper than both, and if you were to fade Sharpe in your main build, then I’d go with both Williams and Tillman.
- Max Strus ($5,600) went for 54 FP Wednesday, and his price rightfully went up $1,100, but if you need to fill a final SG/SF spot then I think he is still cheap enough to use in cash games, especially if Garland somehow ends up out. Isaac Okoro ($4,400) went up $1,200 after going for 37.5 FP, and like Strus he remains cheap enough to consider in cash games at the SF/PF spots.
- Other top p/$ targets are Jalen Duren ($5,600), Jalen Williams ($5,900), Jalen Johnson ($4,700), Dennis Schroder ($5,600), OG Anunoby ($5,900), Keegan Murray ($5,200), and Scoot Henderson ($5,900).
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
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Good luck today!