NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 4/7/2022
All of the sports hype today is rightfully about the Masters starting and MLB opening day, but there’s still NBA DFS going on with a solid seven-game slate. The 10 playoff teams are set for the East and West, but there is still some jockeying for higher seeding with just Memphis on today’s slate having nothing to play for. Only the Celtics are on a back-to-back, so we could see Horford and potentially other guys getting a breather and of course we get the big three for the Lakers questionable in the last game of the night and with nothing but pride left to play for it wouldn’t surprise me if they sat these final games.
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Projections Preview – Thursday, April 7th
NBA Starting Lineups – Early DFS Analysis
On NBA Starting Lineups we see a lot of the usual projected starting lineups with Dejounte Murray the biggest name still out, so Tre Jones should continue to start. A lot of starters who missed their previous game have a chance to return today like OG Anunoby, Brandon Williams, Patrick Beverley, Dillon Brooks, and Jeff Green. We see the Warriors as 12.5 point favorites as they are at full strength (besides Curry) and that line makes it seem pretty likely at least two of Westbrook, James, and Davis if not all three sit – Around 2PM EST it was announced the big 3 Lakers are OUT.
Al Horford and Jayson Tatum are out for Boston so Derrick White and Grant Williams are the likely starters for them now while Jaylen Brown gets a big usage bump as the top offensive weapon and Daniel Theis a more appealing value play.
Brandon Ingram is now likely out so either Devonte Graham or Naji Marshall will likely start tonight. Valanciunas will play after being questionable earlier so he and CJ McCollum will carry most of the Pelicans offense tonight.
Matisse Thybulle will be out for Philly as he’s ineligible to play in Canada, so look Danny Green to likely start for him. The only other lineup news of note is with the Magic who will be without Cole Anthony, Franz Wagner, and Wendell Carter again today, so Markelle Fultz, Moritz Wagner, and Chuma Okeke will all start.
Fred VanVleet is now out tonight for rest so Gary Trent, Pascal Siakam, and Scottie Barnes will carry most of the offense.
Key Injuries – The Situation Room Review
In The Situation Room we see the big three for the Lakers as officially questionable and with them playing in the last game of the night we might not know their status until way after lock. I think I would need all three to be out to feel comfortable using any Lakers guy today as they still have a very deep roster and could give big minutes to a lot of different people. If Westbrook, James, and Davis all sit then I would pick and choose from their starters based on your positional needs and their salaries on each site as well as what you have available to even swap from if we get that news late. With all three out LA still has 12 available players and could spread out minutes or give a few random guys big minutes so this could be a spot to avoid unless we hear something specific from their coach.
UPDATE: LeBron, AD, and Westbrook are OUT
Brandon Williams is iffy again with his quad injury and if out we should see Kris Dunn draw the start again. Dunn doesn’t have the greatest upside, but for around $5k on both sites he should be solid for the likely 30 minutes he’d get and Keon Johnson would also be a more appealing play likely to see more minutes especially coming off a 40+ FP performance.
UPDATE: Williams is IN
OG Anunoby, Patrick Beverley, Dillon Brooks, Jeff Green, and Jaden McDaniels are the other relevant Q players currently and their absences would give bumps to Khem Birch, Malik Beasley, Ziaire Williams, Austin Rivers, and Taurean Prince respectively.
UPDATE: Anunoby is OUT
Around 5:30PM EST DAngelo Russell was added as questionable with hamstring soreness so Malik Beasley could be looking at a lot of minutes if both Russell and Beverley don’t go. Beasley should still start if either don’t play while Edwards and Towns will have to carry a lot of the offense if Russell sits.
Make sure to follow the RG NBA Twitter feed for all news related to injuries and lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for any big news updates on players with instant analysis on how it affects their teams and the slate.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected starting lineups as well as key injuries let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
FanDuel finally bumped Tre Jones’ price from under $4k to $5,800, but that is still a fine salary for the 39+ FP he’s put up his last two games and is still squarely in play. With the Magic missing three starters I’m really likely the prices of Ignas Brazdeikis ($4,200), Moe Wagner ($3,900) and Chuma Okeke ($4,100) in a nice matchup with Charlotte. I already mentioned Jones, but Devin Vassell ($5,500) is another Spurs guy I’m liking a lot today as he’s increased his fantasy output every game over his last five scoring over 40 FP last game and could be pressed in to even more minutes if Lonnie Walker can’t play through his questionable tag. Sticking with the SG position I think Keon Johnson ($4,400) is too cheap for the 30+ average FP he’s scored over his last three games and should easily see 27+ minutes today. Some other FD value plays I’m considering today include Andrew Wiggins ($5,800), Monte Morris ($5,300), Greg Brown ($4,600), CJ Elleby ($4,100), and Moritz Wagner ($3,900). (With Horford and Tatum now out I like Derrick White ($4,900), Marcus Smart ($5,300), and Daniel Theis ($4,500) for value now).
On DraftKings Tre Jones is $500 cheaper than FD at $5,300 so he will definitely make my main build there as well as Ignas Brazdeikis who is $700 cheaper at $3,500. Chuma Okeke is $800 more expensive than FD at $4,900 so he isn’t as much of a priority unless we don’t get any other great value today as well as Moe Wagner at $4,600. Markelle Fultz isn’t getting more than 25 minutes, but for $5,200 he can still put up 30+ FP and is a fine mid-range play. Devin Vassell ($6,000) and Keon Johnson ($5,300) are a bit more expensive than FD but definitely still in play at those prices. Other DK guys I like include Monte Morris ($5,100), Greg Brown ($4,600), Josh Richardson ($4,600), and Kris Dunn ($5,100).
Keep checking LineupHQ as we learn more news and our minutes and projections change throughout the day as well as the ChangeLog which shows which projections were recently updated. The best p/$ plays could change in an instant if there’s a big injury that comes out of the blue, a questionable player gets ruled out, or we get a quote from a coach saying someone won’t see as many minutes or will see a lot more minutes than we were expecting earlier in the day as a few examples of many that can drastically change a slate.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch NBA Crunch Time and follow the CourtIQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn