NBA DFS | Today's Best Projections, Optimizer Picks, Starting Lineups, Key Injuries
After yesterday’s absolute chaos with value everywhere you looked, big names being late-scratched and just a lot of overall uncertainty today looks to be much more calm, but this is DFS NBA, so anything can happen as the day goes on. That said, it is nice getting a little breather, at least for now.
A big reason it should be calmer today is that we only have six games on this slate and only the Warriors are on a back-to-back, which isn’t really a true b2b as yesterday they sat four starters. It’s like the NBA knew yesterday was just a bit too nuts and scheduled today as a little thank you for surviving.
This article is meant to highlight some of RotoGrinders’ most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA Starting Lineups – Early DFS Analysis
Beginning with NBA Starting Lineups the biggest lineup change besides the Warriors getting Curry, Thompson, and Wiggins back is the Cavaliers missing Jarrett Allen indefinitely with both quad and finger injuries. Cedi Osman started the second half last game for Allen, so we’re projecting him to start today with Lauri Markkanen and Evan Mobley starting at the PF and C spots. All three should be pretty popular plays in a projected close scoring matchup with the Pacers. The Cavs will also get some PG reinforcement with Rajon Rondo returning from his toe sprain. Also in that game the Pacers will get Chris Duarte back while Lance Stephenson remains out.
UPDATE: Dean Wade will start for Allen today.
After getting Moe Wagner back last game Orlando will also get Wendell Carter Jr. back from his two game absence but Jalen Suggs will remain out with R.J. Hampton starting again. In that same game the Suns should have the same group as last game with Booker, Paul, and Johnson all out still and Landry Shamet likely starting again.
Other changes worth noting include Jordan Nwora projected to start for Grayson Allen as he did the last time Allen sat and Wesley Matthews was available which should be the case today, Isaiah Roby potentially returning to start after missing last game, Robert Covington out for personal reasons, Jalen McDaniels returning from a long absence, and LaMarcus Aldridge out which will give more minutes to Nicolas Claxton.
NBA DFS Key Injuries – The Situation Room Review
What a difference from yesterday over in The Situation Room as we currently have just a handful of DFS relevant questionable tags and we know every teams’ current injury report except the Warriors whose only unknown currently is Otto Porter Jr. who sat yesterday and if out again would give bumps to Moses Moody, Jonathan Kuminga and Juan Toscano-Anderson.
UPDATE: Otto Porter Jr. is OUT on the Warriors first injury report at 4:30PM EST.
Brandon Ingram is the biggest questionable player currently dealing with right hamstring soreness but it is a 7:30PM EST tip so hopefully we learn his status before the 7PM lock and make a swap plan if we don’t. In 112 minutes with Ingram off the floor C.J. McCollum sees a 4.5% usage bump and scores an additional .18 FPPM as seen in this CourtIQ. Willy Hernangomez, Jonas Valanciunas, and Herb Jones all see nice usage increases as well so consider McCollum and one or two other Pelicans in your lineup if Ingram gets ruled out.
UPDATE: Brandon Ingram is OUT
Jalen Suggs missed last game but is questionable today with his right ankle sprain and if he ends up out again look for R.J. Hampton to start again and be a decent value play as he saw over 33 minutes last game as a starter. If Suggs plays it will make Cole Anthony slightly less appealing even at his great $6,000 price on FanDuel.
UPDATE: Jalen Suggs is OUT.
After two big games in a row Isaiah Roby missed last game with lower back soreness but is questionable today and if available he will be on my radar on DraftKings at just $5,300 ($6.6k on FD). If Roby sits again looks for Darius Bazley to start at C again with Olivier Sarr getting a bump in minutes as well.
Make sure to follow the RG NBA Twitter feed for all news related to injuries and lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for any big news updates on players with instant analysis on how it affects their teams and the slate.
NBA DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks – LineupHQ
With a good feel for the projected starting lineups as well as key injuries let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
Let’s start with DraftKings today where it looks like they forgot to adjust Cameron Payne as he is only $5,300 after two straight games over 39 FP and should keep it rolling in a nice matchup with Orlando. Payne saw over 35 minutes last game and with Paul, Booker, and Johnson all still out he should easily see 30+ minutes and is just too cheap for his floor and upside. Sticking with the Suns, all of their starters besides Bridges are just way too cheap given their available players and this matchup with Orlando. Landry Shamet should see 30+ minutes and is only $3,700 making him the top salary relief play on DK, Jae Crowder at $5,100 with 35+ FP upside again is just way too cheap, and lastly Deandre Ayton at $6,600 coming off a 44 FP game vs. Milwaukee should absolutely be in consideration for your main build. Don’t get me wrong there is definitely some blowout risk with the Suns, but if this game stays relatively close at all it should be hard to cash without at least three of them, and by priority I’m ranking them as Payne—>Shamet—>Ayton—>Crowder—>Bridges. Another name that I’m loving on DK is Evan Mobley who again looks like DK forgot to manually adjust his salary given Jarrett Allen now out and the nice matchup with Indy. Mobley is only $7,000 today and coming off a 53+ FP performance should be a very popular play. Cedi Osman and Lauri Markkanen also have great DK prices at $4,500 and $5,700 looking at expanded roles with Allen out. Other strong p/$ projected names I’m considering on DK include Isaiah Roby (if he plays obviously), Jordan Nwora (if he starts), Kevin Love, Kevon Looney, and Amir Coffey.
Moving over to FanDuel the Suns’ salaries are flipped compared to DK as Mikal Bridges is looking like the first priority at just $5,800. I still will definitely consider Payne, Shamet, Crowder, and Ayton but will probably end up with two or three Suns on FD compared to the likely three or four on DK. One name standing out to me is Andre Drummond who dropped $2,000 in salary from last game and is just $4,500 today. Yes he’s coming off back-to-back games with under 20 minutes, but with Aldridge out today I think we could see Drummond get to closer to 25 minutes which should be enough for him to pay off that salary in a nice matchup with Charlotte sitting at the highest total of the day with a close spread. The next name I will almost certainly have in my cash game build is Klay Thompson at $5,500. This is the lowest price Thompson has been on FD this season and probably ever and on two days rest you know he’s itching to fire away. I also still like Evan Mobley at $8,100 but just not as much as DK and my favorite Cav on FD will be Darius Garland who is still at just $8,000. I also really love the salaries of LaMelo Ball ($7,800) and Miles Bridges ($6,900) in the already mentioned highest projected scoring game of the slate as well as Reggie Jackson at the very affordable $7,100 . Other guys I’m considering on FD right now include Mo Bamba, Cedi Osman, Kevon Looney, Andrew Wiggins, Desmond Bane, and Amir Coffey.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we learn more news and our minutes and projections change throughout the day as well as the ChangeLog which shows which projections were recently updated. The best p/$ plays could change in an instant if there’s a big injury that comes out of the blue, a questionable player gets ruled out, or we get a quote from a coach saying someone won’t see as many minutes or will see a lot more minutes than we were expecting earlier in the day as a few examples of many that can drastically change a slate.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch NBA Crunch Time and follow the CourtIQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn