Injuries Dent Miami's NBA Title Odds, Finals MVP Race Heats Up Between James & Davis
Two days ago, the Miami Heat entered Game 1 as 4.5-point underdogs and were 3-to-1 longshots, not likely but not unreasonable odds, to ultimately upset LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers in the NBA Finals. After injuries to a pair of Miami Heat starters, Goran Dragic and Bam Adebayo, the Lakers are nearly double-digit favorites in Game 2, and while a scenario in which the Heat somehow when four of the next six games isn’t impossible, it certainly feels implausible.
Dragic, who suffered a torn plantar facia, is currently listed as doubtful for Game 2 but don’t count on the Heat’s second-leading scorer in the playoffs to return soon. As for Adebayo, there is some hope after his shoulder x-rays came back negative. But even if he does play he won’t be 100 percent, which will make it difficult to slow down Anthony Davis, who scored 34 points Wednesday night.
Tied for Miami’s best Plus/Minus, Dragic and Adebayo are more than just role players; they have been key pieces to both the Heat’s offense and defense. The Heat’s perimeter offense, boosted by Dragic, and their defense inside the paint, led by Adebayo, are why many thought they matched up well with the Lakers before catching the injury bug.
NBA Finals MVP Odds: James or Davis?
So, at least according to oddsmakers and everyone not named Jimmy Butler, the relevant question is no longer “who will win the NBA Finals?” — it’s “who will win Finals MVP?”
To see why, look no further than the respective futures odds across the online sports betting industry.
The Lakers are now -3500 favorites to win the series at FanDuel Sportsbook while the Heat are +1400. They split the difference at DraftKings Sportsbook, where the Lakers are -1667 and the Heat +850. But if you really want to back the Lakers ahead of Game 2, head to BetMGM where you can buy them at a “bargain” price of -1250. Regardless of where you look, it’s a pretty large gap, as the Lakers have between 92.6% and 97.2% implied odds of winning the 2020 NBA Finals, and the Heat between 6.7% and 11.1%.
When it comes to who will win the NBA Finals MVP, however, oddsmakers think the race is much closer. At FanDuel, LeBron James is -180 to win the award and Davis +170. The next closest are Butler +2000, Adebayo +2700, Herro +6000, and Dragic +1000. All Purple and Gold candidates outside of James and Davis are at least +10000.
James is the favorite after dropping 25 points and falling one assist shy of a triple-double in the series opener. However, Anthony Davis led the Lakers with 34 points while adding nine rebounds and five assists.
With Adebayo hurt, there’s clearly a path for Davis to win Finals MVP. The big man should have his way down low, especially if Adebayo misses a game or two, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he continues to lead the Lakers in points.
But the narrative for James is a more exciting one for voters who are not without their own biases. Aside from being the best basketball player in the world, LeBron was pivotal in orchestrating the NBA’s wildly successful Disney World Bubble experiment after the league’s COVID-induced hiatus. James has also been outspoken about social justice issues that require immediate attention. Voters won’t forget these facts if the race between James and Davis is close to a draw. Plus, don’t ignore that James obviously cares about his legacy. A fourth Finals MVP trophy leaves him only two behind Michael Jordan’s six, which might give the King some additional motivation.
Whether it takes three or four more games (or maybe more), I expect James to be giving the MVP speech whenever the Finals come to an end. That’s why I’m betting on James -190 to win NBA Finals MVP at FanDuel.
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One thing is for sure, though: While it’s not all that difficult to imagine a scenario where a player other than James wins the award, it’s very hard to picture the 2020 NBA season concluding any other way than the Lakers raising the Larry O’Brien trophy.
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images