NBA FINALS: Suns vs. Bucks Odds, Game 4 Preview, Picks, & Prediction
Suns vs. Bucks Game 4 Odds
| Suns Odds | +4.5 |
| Bucks Odds | -4.5 |
| Moneyline | +150/-185 |
| Over/Under | 220.5 |
| Time | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
| Odds accurate as of Tuesday at BetMGM | |
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After Game 2 of the 2021 NBA Finals, the Phoenix Suns looked like they were going to cruise into the sunset of a championship season. They had thoroughly exposed the Milwaukee Bucks in both series-opening home games, exposing their Eastern Conference foes as a squad with more question marks than answers. That all changed in Game 3 in Wisconsin, where the deer once again proved they should be feared. Milwaukee now looks to tie the series up 2-2, and go back to Phoenix with renewed confidence.
The Bucks are favored by 4.5 points in Game 4 on Wednesday, and they are -185 on the moneyline. And honestly, how can we argue with either of those odds? Two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo and his squad took care of business with their backs against the ropes Sunday, punching Phoenix in the mouth repeatedly. Sorry for the barrage of sports metaphors, but it’s all true—the Suns could not handle the flurry of haymakers thrown by the Bucks at home.
Milwaukee Bucks
Give Milwaukee coach Mike Budenholzer a lot of credit for his team’s humongous Game 3 victory. The Bucks played stifling defense, fighting through pick-and-rolls, defending the three-point shot, and adjusting perfectly to drive-and-kicks. They brought the intensity, aggressively attacking the basket and relentlessly running the floor. And they relied on their superiorities offensively: the strength and athleticism of Giannis, who posted 41-13-6; the accuracy and intelligence of Khris Middleton (18-7-6); and the vision and command of Jrue Holiday (21-5-9).
At long last, Milwaukee’s Big Three vastly outperformed Phoenix’s trio of Chris Paul, Devin Booker, and Deandre Ayton. Paul never seemed to get back into rhythm after the Suns rested him late in the first half, and they promptly surrendered a huge 16-3 run over the last 4:52 of the second quarter. Booker finished 3-of-14 from the field, and 1-of-7 from long range. Ayton played well (8-of-11 for 18 points, nine rebounds), but foul trouble limited him to 24 minutes when Phoenix needed 40 out of him.
All said, the Bucks won 120-100 in a thorough stomping. The damage Milwaukee inflicted in the second and third quarters proved irreparable—after trailing by six in the second quarter, Coach Bud called a timeout and the Bucks responded by outscoring the Suns 30-9 the rest of the quarter. They followed that up with a 24-6 run in the final five minutes of the third frame.
The combined scores of the second and third quarters of Game 3: Bucks 73-Suns 48. Milwaukee finished the contest with 54 points in the paint to Phoenix’s 40, 47 rebounds to the Suns’ 36, and 16 fast-break points to the Suns’ six. The Bucks also flipped the script in the turnover department, registering just nine giveaways to Phoenix’s 14.
Phoenix Suns
No Suns player reached 20 points, 10 rebounds, or 10 assists. And nobody could stop the Greek Freak. It seems Hell hath no fury like a five-time All-NBA selection scorned. Antetokounmpo played with the combination of power and finesse that initially broke him into superstardom. He was, by all measures of the word, dominant. He made 14 of his 23 field goal attempts, with all 14 makes coming within five feet of the basket. Hell, he even hit 13-of-17 free throws!
Once Ayton got into foul trouble—drawing his fourth and fifth relatively early—Monty Williams was in trouble. It sounds crazy to say, but Phoenix misses Dario Saric big time right now. Because frankly, when you’re rolling out Jae Crowder and Frank Kaminsky to bang with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez down low, you are going to have a tough time winning.
You’ll have an even tougher time winning when you’re a three-point shooting squad that misses 22 treys. If it wasn’t for Crowder shooting 6-of-7 from deep, it might have been a 40-point loss. You read those stats right—Crowder’s teammates combined to shoot 3-of-24 from long range.
Bucks vs. Suns Game 4 Picks
I like the momentum from Game 3 to carry over for Milwaukee. With Giannis asserting his will, the young Suns often appearing rattled by the raucous Bucks crowd, and Phoenix adding injuries with each new game, we might be experiencing a seismic shift in this Finals series. For now, I still have the Suns getting it done in seven, but let’s be serious—a few days ago, I thought the Suns would be wrapping this one up in five!
The Bucks looked derailed and dejected in Phoenix—they now look inspired and invigorated back in Milwaukee. They are taking what the defense gives them, and exploiting the weaknesses of their opponent. They are letting Holiday set the pins up, and putting their two-time MVP in a position to successfully knock them down (another sports metaphor, sorry).
Phoenix can’t rely on shooting itself out of slumps—never mind surging Bucks runs. If the Suns are going to win one of these games in Milwaukee, they will need to get big on both ends. Make Giannis earn his buckets down low—play him physically, draw charges, or commit hard fouls. On the opposite end, attack the basket! Booker had balls in the Western Conference Finals, and suddenly he’s lost them. Find those balls, and drive to the rack—Jrue, Giannis, and Brook Lopez can’t block every attempt.
I’m backing the Bucks in Deer District Wednesday, both on the moneyline and most likely against the spread. Though not always the best idea, I’m tempted to buy a point to make it -3.5 for added insurance —I’m getting old and living less dangerously (seriously… I just purchased long-term disability insurance—am I ancient?). I like good investments, sure bets, and padding my retirement account—so let’s make some bucks on the Bucks while they’re still at home.
NBA Finals Game 4 Pick: Bucks ML -185
Image Credit: Imagn