Married to the Market - NBA Futures Betting and Strategy

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NBA futures betting is like marriage. Jump in blindly and you’re destined for failure. Wait too long and you might miss the boat. You’ll be wrong 99% of the time, but that one win will carry you for eternity.

Just like any good marriage, we have to be more attentive the longer it goes. The honeymoon period is over and we have a much clearer picture of the NBA landscape once the calendar flips to the New Year.

I’m going to review the NBA futures market each week using the “Something Old, Something New, Something Borrowed, Something Blue” tradition as a weekly crutch to get my points across without having to come up with something clever every week (headlines are hard!). Should be able to have some fun with it.

Each section might not yield a bet every week, but ideally there’s actionable info in there to help readers gauge the market.

Something Old

Celtics to Win the NBA Championship (+400 on BetMGM)

This section will be a stagnant market due for a shake-up.

The Celtics have been the title favorite since mid-November and with good reason. Their 29-12 record is the best in the league and they’ve remained relatively healthy all season.

The Eastern Conference might not have the depth of the Western Conference, but the upper tier seems stronger. Nets/Bucks/Sixers/Cavs is just a more imposing group for Boston to contend with come playoff time. This has me eyeing the West for potential NBA title bets.

Reaction – It’s a best team vs. easier path situation. The Celtics would likely be favored in the Finals against whoever comes out of the West- it’s just going to be more difficult to get there. The Nuggets (+1000 on FanDuel) and Warriors (+900 on DraftKings) feel like better value.

Something New

Kevin Durant to Win MVP (+1400 at multiple books)

This section will highlight risers/fallers. Could be a team, player, entire market, etc. Basically the biggest shift from the past week.

This one stinks. KD was around +900 to win MVP coming into the season and got all the way up over +3000 a month ago. An efficient December helped him work his way down to +800 by the first week of January.

But a sprained MCL will sideline Durant for around a month, dropping his MVP odds well behind the foursome of Luka/Jokic/Giannis/Tatum.

Reaction – If you’re already invested in the big four, you can feel a bit safer. Durant was making a strong case to join the group but the missed time likely eliminates him from the conversation. Joel Embiid (+1600 on FanDuel) might be the next guy to enter the mix. He returned from a foot issue on Tuesday and dropped 36 and 11 on the Pistons in just 24 minutes.

Something Measured

Indiana Pacers’ Preseason Win Total (23.5)

This section will be an interesting/unique/fun futures-related stat or trend from the past week. Like, I don’t know, a team hitting their win total a month before the All-Star Break.

Indiana was supposed to be a contender in the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes. Instead, they’re just a contender.

The Pacers are 23-18 and are currently 6th in the East. We’re barely into January and a victory tonight against the Knicks will cash the over on Indiana’s preseason win total.

Reaction – Bet the Pacers to miss the playoffs (+130). Indiana is right on the play-in bubble and it’s easy to envision some/all of the veteran teams behind them (Knicks, Heat, Bulls, Raptors) figuring it out and moving past them. Not to mention the front office could still decide to move Myles Turner, Buddy Hield and other pieces if the right offer pops up.

Something Eww

Southeast Division (Heat -185 on FanDuel)

This section will be a market that’s uncertain, mispriced or just generally one to avoid.

The Southeast Division is the NFC South of the NBA. Five flawed teams who have underperformed (Heat and Hawks), lack top-end talent (Wizards) or aren’t overly concerned about winning (Magic and Hornets).

Only Miami (22-20) is over .500 and that’s a recent development (won 6 of their last 9). Just ugly.

Reaction – No good teams means there could be some value on a longshot division winner. The Magic at +10000 might be worth a sprinkle. Insanely young group but maybe the most talented (?) outside of a fully-healthy Miami team (if that exists).

About the Author

cawright95
Charlie Wright (cawright95)

Charlie Wright (aka cawright95) is a former journalist who left the news world to pursue a career in the gambling industry. He writes weekly content for the NFL, NBA, and MLB while also contributing betting picks for ScoresAndOdds. Charlie has held a variety of roles for Better Collective. He currently leads the Marketing team for RotoGrinders, ScoresAndOdds, and FantasyLabs. Follow Charlie on Twitter – @Chuck_Wright5