Married to the Market - NBA Futures Betting and Strategy
We’re talking trade deadline today. My Wizards kicked it off with an absolute blockbuster (kidding of course), sending Rui Hachimura to LA for Kendrick Nunn and three second-round picks. Always fun when a team that constantly butchers the draft trades for more picks.
Might’ve buried the Clippers too soon last week, as they lost to Utah on Wednesday but rattled off three wins after that. Still skeptical this extended road trip will end well.
Joel Embiid passed Giannis Antetokounmpo on the MVP leaderboard but his odds are still playable (+900 at BetMGM).
As always, each section might not yield a bet every week, but ideally there’s actionable info in there to help readers gauge the market.
Something Old
This Iteration of the Chicago Bulls (+200 to Make the Playoffs)
This section will be a stagnant market due for a shake-up.
The second season of the DeRozan/Vucevic/LaVine big three in Chicago has gone a lot like the first one.
They’ve meandered around the middle of the Eastern Conference standings, but given the resources put into this roster and their lack of future draft picks, Chicago has no choice but to try to contend.
Reaction – +200 to make the playoffs is too good to pass up. This team is far from perfect but more often than not looks like the group that earned the 6th seed last season.
Something New
Bad Teams Getting Worse
This section will highlight risers/fallers. Could be a team, player, entire market, etc.
We’re two weeks away from the trade deadline. It’s time for the bad teams to sell off anything that isn’t tied down and make a push for the top pick in the upcoming draft.
Great opportunity to look for value on their win totals before those deals go down.
Reaction – Detroit seems like the most obvious candidate with Bojan Bogdanovic likely on his way to a different squad. The Pistons are 12-37 (24.5% winning percentage) and their win total is 21.5 at FanDuel. Going 10-23 (30.3% winning percentage) the rest of the way without their leading scorer feels like a stretch.
Something Measured
Parity vs. Imbalance Across Conferences
This section will be an interesting/unique/fun futures-related stat or trend.
Denver’s NBA title odds caught back up to Brooklyn’s this week (both +800 at FanDuel/BetMGM), the first time in about a month a Western Conference team has challenged the trio of favorites in the East (Boston/Milwaukee/Brooklyn).
Golden State has narrowed the gap as well after falling out of the top three in title odds when Steph Curry went down.
Reaction – While the top three title favorites are in the East, only six of the top 15 teams in terms of NBA Championship odds reside in the conference. That means it’s quite crowded in the upper tier of the West. Look for some of those teams to force the issue at the trade deadline.
Something Eww
The Disrespect of the Sacramento Kings (LIGHT THE BEAM)
This section will be a market that’s uncertain, mispriced or just generally one to avoid.
The Kings are the best story in the NBA and are heavy favorites to end their 16-year playoff drought.
And yet, check out some of the teams still ahead of Sacramento to win the title at some books: Lakers, Raptors, Hawks, Blazers. Four teams at or below .500 with clear flaws.
Title/conference championship odds aren’t a perfect representation of the market’s opinion on every team. And none of these teams are winning the title this year. But a little respect for Mike Brown and the boys, please.
Reaction – The Kings are 26-19-1 ATS, tied for the second-best mark in the league. Not futures-related but something to keep in mind for daily bets.