Married to the Market - NBA Futures Betting and Strategy
Is there an unwritten rule stating Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt must be traded together? Three times now for the duo.
The Lakers … kinda did good? Shipping out Westbrook was a must. D’Angelo Russell isn’t the answer but he’s a better fit. Vanderbilt and Beasley are useful. Thomas Bryant for Mo Bamba might be a lateral move but could be an upgrade.
Probably doesn’t mean much in the long run. Just interesting.
Each section might not yield a bet every week, but ideally there’s actionable info in there to help readers gauge the market.
Something Old
The .500 Atlanta Hawks
This section will be a stagnant market due for a shake-up or a situation we’re tired of seeing.
The Hawks haven’t been more than three games above or below .500 since Nov. 23 (11-7 at the time). They lost to the Hornets on Monday to move to an even 29-29. It was Charlotte’s first win of the month.
Atlanta added Saddiq Bey to its pile of wings and grabbed Bruno Fernando and Garrison Mathews in a salary-related move at the trade deadline.
Reaction – The Raptors and Wizards chose not to sell at the deadline and are just 1.5 games behind the 8th-place Hawks. The Bulls are 2.5 games back. Atlanta to miss the playoffs (+210 on Caesars) is intriguing.
Something New
Phoenix as the Favorite Out West
This section will highlight risers/fallers. Could be a team, player, entire market, etc.
Adding Kevin Durant is a pretty good way to shift your title odds. The Suns are now the favorite to take the West and are second behind only Boston to win it all at most books (FanDuel still has Milwaukee ahead).
Reaction – There’s no value at these prices. Durant’s timetable remains murky, so might be able to wait it out for a better number if the Suns struggle the next couple weeks. Falling back behind Denver is a possibility.
Something Measured
Brooklyn’s Implied Win Total
This section will be an interesting/unique/fun futures-related stat or trend.
Had the Nets in this space last week and I’m still fascinated by this group. The roster looks a lot different, but is it a sub-.500 squad?
Brooklyn’s win total is 45.5 (+100) at Caesars. They’re 33-24 right now, so 13-12 the rest of the way gets it done.
Reaction – I’m in. They’re only 1-2 since the trade deadline, but that includes a narrow three-point loss to Philly. Brooklyn’s schedule gets a lot easier down the stretch, closing with Orlando / Houston / Atlanta / Utah / Minnesota / Detroit / Orlando / Philly.
Something Eww
Apathy in Memphis
This section will be a market that’s uncertain, mispriced or just generally one to avoid.
Luke Kennard is a nice player. But man, that’s a rough consolation prize when you’re involved in Durant/Anunoby rumors all week.
The Suns and Mavericks both moved ahead of the Grizzlies to win the West after their big trades. Memphis’ 3-9 stretch also dropped them behind the Clippers.
Reaction – Holding onto the No. 2 seed will be crucial for the Grizzlies. Drop any lower and they might be an underdog in the first round of the playoffs. Not firing on them right now even at the depressed cost.
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