Married to the Market - NBA Futures Betting and Strategy
Tyrese Maxey has been awesome in March. Unfortunately he’s started all five games this month and is basically off the board for 6th Man of the Year. FanDuel had it priced right.
Each section might not yield a bet every week, but ideally there’s actionable info in there to help readers gauge the market.
Something Old
Trying to Predict the Clippers
This section will be a stagnant market due for a shake-up or a situation we’re tired of seeing.
The Clippers have been in this article an uncomfortable amount. They’ve been tough to pin down and they’ve had value in multiple markets at several different points.
And here we are again, this time with play-in tournament odds. LA has fallen to 8th place (technically tied for 7th with Minnesota), losing 5-of-6 since Russell Westbrook joined the squad.
Reaction – The Mavericks and Warriors aren’t going to run away with the 5th and 6th seeds, but -110 for the Clippers to stay in play-in range seems fair.
Something New
Toronto’s Postseason Chances
This section will highlight risers/fallers. Could be a team, player, entire market, etc.
The Raptors were expected to be sellers at the trade deadline but instead added Jakob Poeltl and held onto Fred VanVleet and OG Anunoby.
Toronto has won 9-of-14 and they’re only a half-game behind Atlanta for the 8th seed.
Reaction – Getting the 8th seed would likely match Toronto up with Miami (beat them twice already) or a depleted Brooklyn team. +130 to make the playoffs on DraftKings is decent value.
Something Measured
The Knicks’ Odds to Win the East
This section will be an interesting/unique/fun futures-related stat or trend.
One month ago, New York was more than 100-1 to win the East. Now they’re as low as +2200 (Caesars).
The Knicks have only lost three times since January and had won nine straight until the Hornets somehow beat them on Tuesday.
Reaction – It’s a lot of fun when the Knicks are rolling. Just can’t see this team knocking off the big boys in the East. Not jumping on the bandwagon.
Something Eww
Fading Tanking/Resting Teams
This section will be a market that’s uncertain, mispriced or just generally one to avoid.
Mentioned the Hornets beating the Knicks earlier, that wasn’t the only goofy result. Wizards needed a last-second putback to beat the Pistons (didn’t cover the -9). Sixers without James Harden beat the Timberwolves (3-point favorites) by 23.
Feels like it’s happening every night.
Reaction – This is where the remaining strength of schedule stuff gets shaky. I cite it just like everybody else but it’s far from gospel. There are going to be weird losses that alter the standings, would be careful when leaning on SOS.
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