NBA Grind Down: Friday, April 10th - Page Two
Milwaukee at New York – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Milwaukee -8.5, 190.5 Over/Under
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-Ilyasova-Pachulia
- New York Proj. Starters – Larkin-Galloway-Thomas-Bargnani-Amundson
| Milwaukee | New York | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 190 |  | Vegas Total | 190 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -8.5 | Vegas Sprd | 8.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.5 | Team Proj. | 91.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.23 | Team Pace | 93.52 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Ersan Ilyasova | Zaza Pachulia | Proj Starter | Shane Larkin | Langston Galloway | Lance Thomas | Andrea Bargnani | Louis Amundson | |
| Opp. Season | 22 | 23 | 2 | 7 | 26 | Opp. Season | 1 | 13 | 25 | 13 | 15 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 29 | 16 | 10 | 9 | 22 | Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 4 | 27 | 22 | 10 | |
Milwaukee
The Bucks draw a favorable matchup against the Knicks, but this game has blowout written all over it. The Bucks are 8.5-point favorites, which seems a bit low to me considering the way the Knicks have played over the last month. Giannis Antetokounmpo is expected to return to the lineup tonight, after receiving a DNP for reasons unknown to us. I see the Bucks as tournament plays tonight in a potential blowout.
Opponent Breakdown (New York)
Record: 15-63
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.3 (Rank: 21)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 28
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Michael Carter-Williams (FD: $7000, DK: $6400 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 26.8)
Ersan Ilyasova (FD: $5500, DK: $6100 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 22.1)
New York
The Knicks have nothing to play for at this point of the season. They are all just playing for future contracts in the NBA. They draw a tough matchup against the Bucks, who have held their opponents to the 8th-fewest points per game this season. Avoid all Knicks in cash games, as there is no need to take unnecessary risks on a night with such a large slate of games.
Opponent Breakdown (Milwaukee)
Record: 38-40
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.7 (Rank: 9)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Rebounding Differential Rank: 18
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Andrea Bargnani (FD: $5300, DK: $5900 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 26.2)
Editor’s Note: Bargnani is out for tonight’s game.
Shane Larkin (FD: $4800, DK: $4500 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 13.5)
Phoenix at New Orleans – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – New Orleans -9, 194.5 Over/Under
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Bledsoe-Tucker-Morris-Morris-Wright
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Evans-Gordon-Pondexter-Davis-Asik
| Phoenix | New Orleans | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 194 |  | Vegas Total | 194 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 9.0 | Vegas Sprd | -9.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 92.8 | Team Proj. | 101.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.91 | Team Pace | 93.69 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Eric Bledsoe | P.J. Tucker | Marcus Morris | Markieff Morris | Brandan Wright | Proj Starter | Tyreke Evans | Eric Gordon | Quincy Pondexter | Anthony Davis | Omer Asik | |
| Opp. Season | 15 | 16 | 7 | 6 | 20 | Opp. Season | 18 | 19 | 22 | 11 | 19 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 21 | 29 | Opp. Last 7 | ||||||
Phoenix
The Suns are out of the playoff race, but they can still play the role of spoiler with a victor over the Pelicans tonight. This will be a pace-down game for Phoenix and they are listed as 9-point underdogs. They should play well enough to keep this game competitive, but there aren’t any options that stand out as elite plays. The Suns are all secondary options at their respective positions.
Opponent Breakdown (New Orleans)
Record: 42-36
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.7 (Rank: 13)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 22
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Markieff Morris (FD: $7100, DK: $6100 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 23.5)
Brandan Wright (FD: $4900, DK: $5500 / MPG: 19 / Usage Rate: 14)
New Orleans
There are two GIGANTIC reasons to target the Pelicans tonight. First off, they are fighting for their playoff lives, so their starters will see a ton of minutes. And secondly, they draw a favorable matchup against the Suns, who are ranked 26th in points allowed per game this season. Tyreke Evans and Anthony Davis are both strong plays in a must-win game tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Phoenix)
Record: 39-40
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.3 (Rank: 26)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 16
Rebounding Differential Rank: 22
Elite Plays
Anthony Davis (FD: $11900, DK: $11000 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 27.6)
I typically wouldn’t recommend taking Russell Westbrook and Anthony Davis in the same lineup, but I will make an exception tonight. Both players are in must-win situations and there is a TON of value available tonight, which makes it easy to fit them both without sacrificing the rest of your team. Davis should push for 40+ minutes tonight against the Suns, who are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. He’s easily the top power forward option on the board.
Secondary Plays
Tyreke Evans (FD: $8000, DK: $7700 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 25.9)
San Antonio at Houston – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -4, 206 Over/Under
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter
- Houston Proj. Starters – Terry-Harden-Ariza-Jones-Howard
| San Antonio | Houston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 206 |  | Vegas Total | 206 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -4.0 | Vegas Sprd | 4.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 105.0 | Team Proj. | 101.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.91 | Team Pace | 99.17 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | Tim Duncan | Tiago Splitter | Proj Starter | Jason Terry | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Terrence Jones | Dwight Howard | |
| Opp. Season | 3 | 20 | 20 | 27 | 22 | Opp. Season | 9 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 11 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 18 | 15 | 26 | 11 | Opp. Last 7 | 22 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 6 | |
San Antonio
The Spurs are still trying to move up in the standings in order to have home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. With motivation to win, the starters should see their usual allotment of minutes tonight against the Rockets, who are one of the fastest-paced teams in the league. As always, Kawhi Leonard is the preferred play in cash games, while the other Spurs can be targeted in tournaments.
Opponent Breakdown (Houston)
Record: 53-25
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.5 (Rank: 17)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Rebounding Differential Rank: 14
Elite Plays
Kawhi Leonard (FD: $8500, DK: $8000 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 23)
Leonard has been outstanding over the last month of play, averaging over 35 fantasy points per contest during that stretch. He should see 35+ minutes tonight against the Rockets, who are one of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA. Leonard is the premier play at small forward tonight. He’s a very safe play in cash games.
Secondary Plays
Tim Duncan (FD: $6900, DK: $6200 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 22.4)
Tony Parker (FD: $5600, DK: $5300 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 24.8)
Houston
The Rockets draw a very tough matchup against the Spurs, who are ranked 10th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season. The Spurs are playing as well as any team in the NBA right now, especially on the defensive end of the floor. I’ll be avoiding all Spurs’ players in this difficult matchup.
Opponent Breakdown (San Antonio)
Record: 53-26
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.8 (Rank: 3)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Rebounding Differential Rank: 10
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Sacramento at Oklahoma City – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -14, 217 Over/Under
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – McCallum-McLemore-Casspi-Landry-Thompson
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Waiters-Singler-Kanter-Adams
| Sacramento | Oklahoma City | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 217 |  | Vegas Total | 217 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 14.0 | Vegas Sprd | -14.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101.5 | Team Proj. | 115.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.8 | Team Pace | 98.31 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ray McCallum | Ben McLemore | Omri Casspi | Carl Landry | Jason Thompson | Proj Starter | Russell Westbrook | Dion Waiters | Kyle Singler | Enes Kanter | Steven Adams | |
| Opp. Season | 25 | 10 | 23 | 26 | 4 | Opp. Season | 24 | 30 | 14 | 22 | 25 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 9 | 27 | 20 | 18 | 26 | Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 29 | 24 | 25 | 4 | |
Sacramento
The Kings will be without DeMarcus Cousins tonight and it sounds like Rudy Gay may be out as well, although he is officially listed as questionable. If both players are out, there will be a ton of value options on the Kings. They draw a favorable matchup against the Thunder, who have played at the fastest-pace of any team over the last two months of play.
Opponent Breakdown (Oklahoma City)
Record: 42-36
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.6 (Rank: 22)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 1
Elite Plays
Omri Casspi (FD: $4500, DK: $4800 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 17.8)
Casspi sees a huge uptick in usage with DeMarcus Cousins out and he may become the number one option offensively if Rudy Gay is also ruled out. Casspi has been terrific over the last five games, averaging close to 30 fantasy points per contest. He should easily reach and exceed value tonight at a discounted price of only $4,500 on FanDuel and $4,800 on DraftKings. Load up on the value that Sacramento offers tonight.
Secondary Plays
Jason Thompson (FD: $4700, DK: $3900 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 12.6)
Ray McCallum (FD: $5000, DK: $4700 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 17.7)
Oklahoma City
The Thunder are in a must-win game tonight against the Kings, who are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. The Thunder have the motivation and the matchup, but this game does have the potential to turn into a blowout. That said, the starters should still log heavy minutes in a must win game.
Opponent Breakdown (Sacramento)
Record: 27-51
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.9 (Rank: 28)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 27
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3
Elite Plays
Russell Westbrook (FD: $12300, DK: $11600 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 37.2)
The Thunder are in a must-win situation tonight in a favorable matchup against the Kings, who are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. Tonight is the perfect opportunity to take advantage of Westbrook’s depressed price tag, as he will likely have a huge outing against a Sacramento team that has been awful against point guards this season. Don’t be surprised to see Westbrook post another triple-double.
Secondary Plays
Enes Kanter (FD: $7400, DK: $7500 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 24.4)
Dallas at Denver – 9:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Denver -4, 212 Over/Under
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Rondo-Ellis-Jefferson-Nowitzki-Chandler
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Foye-Chandler-Gallinari-Faried
| Dallas | Denver | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 212 |  | Vegas Total | 212 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.0 | Vegas Sprd | -4.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 104.0 | Team Proj. | 108.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.20 | Team Pace | 98.39 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Rajon Rondo | Monta Ellis | Richard Jefferson | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | Randy Foye | Wilson Chandler | Danilo Gallinari | Kenneth Faried | |
| Opp. Season | 10 | 29 | 26 | 30 | 27 | Opp. Season | 19 | 14 | 21 | 17 | 17 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 24 | 25 | 12 | 16 | 25 | Opp. Last 7 | 5 | 28 | 23 | 27 | 28 | |
Dallas
The Mavericks don’t have a lot to play for, as they are locked into the seven-seed in the Western Conference. It will be interesting to see if they limit their starters minutes or if they want to get some momentum heading into the playoffs. If I had to guess, I’d go with the latter, as they have not played well over the last few weeks. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Nuggets, who are ranked 27th in points allowed per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Denver)
Record: 29-49
Points Allowed Per Game: 104 (Rank: 27)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 23
Rebounding Differential Rank: 20
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Monta Ellis (FD: $6800, DK: $6700 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 27.8)
Tyson Chandler (FD: $5900, DK: $5700 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 12.7)
Denver
The Nuggets are counting down the days until the end of the season and have little to play for at this point. They did play well the other night against the Lakers though, so maybe they will have some motivation to finish the season strong. They are listed as 4-point favorites in a game that features a very high total of 212 points.
Opponent Breakdown (Dallas)
Record: 47-31
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.7 (Rank: 23)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 18
Rebounding Differential Rank: 30
Elite Plays
Danilo Gallinari (FD: $6700, DK: $6200 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 21.7)
Gallinari is coming off of a huge 43-fantasy point outing against the Lakers. He has really stepped up his play in the second half of the season and there is no reason that he shouldn’t play his usual allotment of minutes tonight against the Mavericks. The Nuggets have one of the highest team totals on the board and Gallinari offers the best combination of a high floor and a high ceiling.
Secondary Plays
Ty Lawson (FD: $6800, DK: $6500 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 20.5)
Kenneth Faried (FD: $6600, DK: $7000 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 19.9)
Randy Foye (FD: $4500, DK: $4600 / MPG: 21 / Usage Rate: 19.4)