NBA Grind Down: Friday, April 11th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace
Washington at Orlando
- Vegas Line – Washington -7, 194 Over/Under
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Ariza-Booker-Gortat
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Nelson-Afflalo-Harkless-Harris-O’Quinn
Washington
An expectedly low O/U here between one of the East’s worst teams and the Wizards, who are fighting for seeding right now. Washington shouldn’t let off the gas too much quite yet so expecting full rotations from the Wiz is a safe bet. Unfortunately none of Washington’s players have been overly productive of late, with expensive plays like Wall averaging just 30 FPPG over the last week. Marcin Gortat has been the most productive with 34 FPPG in the last 7 days and will likely get a Magic interior D without Vucevic tonight.
Orlando
Mentioned it briefly above but Vuc is again expected to sit out and that leaves Kyle O’Quinn and Tobias Harris in good spots to continue playing expanded roles. Harris has been tremendously consistent, posting 30 FP in each of the last 3 games (all without Vuc). O’Quinn has had more upside though, with a 41 FP game sprinkled on top of 2 30 pointers. Both are intriguing but what isn’t intriguing are the guards from Orlando, who are all playing an even split rotation which has wrecked any potential value.
- Kyle O’Quinn – His price has jumped a bit and I don’t think I’d use him in a GPP as my only center on FanDuel, but on other sites you can still find him on the cheap and he makes a nice upside option.
New York at Toronto
- Vegas Line – Toronto -5, 193.5 Over/Under
- New York Proj. Starters – Felton-Smith-Anthony-Stoudemire-Chandler
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-Derozan-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas
New York
The Knicks aren’t quite eliminated from playoff contention, but if they lose tonight they might as well pack it up and call it a season. Carmelo hasn’t been very Melo-like so I’d caution trusting him tonight but it seems like J.R. Smith has found his touch. He’s so streaky that when he’s riding the high (pun totally intended JR) you almost have to take him at a reasonable price. Toronto is a solid team defensively but they’re certainly not shut-down defenders.
- J.R. Smith – 47, 40 and 50 FP over his last 3 games is real impressive so don’t be afraid to pay a little extra on him, but just make sure you don’t overspend like on DK at $7600.
Toronto
Kyle Lowry returned last game and tonight they should be at full strength with Amir expected back as well. The return of Johnson all but eliminates Jonas V and Pat Patterson as value plays, since the three will split minutes and fight for rebounds. Jonas has been on a heater but the majority of that was without Johnson healthy, so considering his rising price point and likely production dip, I’d avoid that tonight.
- DeMar DeRozan – The Knicks are 25th against SGs on the season mostly due to the defense of the afore mentioned JR Smith. DeRozan is listed as probable for this one and although I worry a bit about him being limited, I do think he’s an intriguing GPP option.
Charlotte at Boston
- Vegas Line – Charlotte -4.5, 193.5 Over/Under
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-McRoberts-Jefferson
- Boston Proj. Starters – Rondo-Bradley-Green-Sullinger-Bass
Charlotte
The big news for the Bobcats today is that Kemba Walker is questionable, but more likely closer to doubtful. In the event that he sits, the usage on this team completely switches. Kemba touches the ball more than any other player (per game) in the NBA. His absence leads to a huge crowding-out effect where we’ll definitely see guys like Luke Ridnour, Al Jefferson, Gerald Henderson and Josh McRoberts all benefit.
- Al Jefferson – Big Al should feast on the C’s interior defense and if Kemba sits, almost every play will be run through him offensively.
- Luke Ridnour – Assuming Kemba is out, Ridnour stands the most likely to benefit by running the point but make sure to double check that lineup if Kemba does indeed miss tonight’s tilt.
Boston
The Celtics are just a few games away from ending this tumultuous season and heading into the ping-pong ball lottery with hopes of drafting their next superstar. For now though they have to fight through the motions and finish off the 2014 season. There are a number of guys vying to show they can be relevant on an NBA roster. They haven’t shown any signs of quitting, but it’s no secret their talent level holds them back in most games. Tonight the spread is just 4.5 so I expect this to be close throughout and a few key Celts to have good value.
- Rajon Rondo – When he plays, he’s been outstanding fantasy wise. And the fact that he sits back-to-backs has kept his price down on most sites all season. Oh and the Bobcats rank 29th against PGs over the last 15 days although that changes a bit if Kemba sits.
- Avery Bradley – Bradley has also been extremely productive since coming back from his injury and he’s really underpriced today on a number of sites including FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Jared Sullinger – With Hump-A-Dump still out, Sully continues to see big minutes and is a terrific tournament play in terms of upside.
Atlanta at Brooklyn
- Vegas Line – Brooklyn -4.5, 201.5 Over/Under
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Brand
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Livingston-Johnson-Pierce-Garnett
Atlanta
Atlanta has a hold of the final playoff spot in the east but they sure as hell can’t afford many losses in the final four games of the regular season. Tonight they’ll head to Brooklyn and while I’m definitely more intrigued by their players because of the game significance, I’m even more intrigued by the 201 O/U set on this bad boy. It seems to me Vegas thinks ATL will be able to establish their pace and that could bode well for a couple of options, although I’ll be damned if I can guess which one.
Brooklyn
At this point in the season the Nets focus is on entering the postseason healthy and not necessarily forcing guys down the stretch in meaningless games vs. Atlanta. I’ll be avoiding all of them tonight unless some major injury news breaks late.
Indiana at Miami
- Vegas Line – Miami -6.5, 181.5 Over/Under
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Stephenson-George-West-Hibbert
- Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Douglas-James-Haslem-Bosh
Indiana
This is the marquee game of the night as the Heat and Pacers do battle in Miami. But just how marquee is it? I mean we all know these teams are fighting for the #1 seed in the east but the Heat are just 6-4 over their last ten games and the Pacers are 3-7. Miami is 21st in the NBA in scoring in that time and Indiana is DEAD LAST. Neither of these teams are playing anywhere near their best basketball, and the collapse of the Pacers is easily the wildest storyline of this season. People expecting the stars to come out tonight haven’t been watching either of these teams play in the last month.
Miami
I broke it down about as well as I could in the Pacers section, but you have two teams ranking in the bottom 10 in scoring over the last 10 games. This game can get all the hype in the world but neither squad is clicking right now so just avoid this game and if you’re really interested in it, watch it on ESPN with no DFS implications.