NBA Grind Down: Friday, April 11th - Page 2
All stat chart buttons below open in an in-screen popup window and include stat tables for all games on the given page of the Grind Down Article
Detroit at Chicago
- Vegas Line – Chicago -10.5, 193 Over/Under
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Stuckey-Singler-Monroe-Drummond
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Hinrich-Butler-Dunleavy-Boozer-Noah
Detroit
Games like this one frustrate me, because you have two opposite styles and one is bound to win out but that usually just leads to a blowout situation. The Pistons are flat out bad right now and will likely be without both Josh Smith and Will Bynum so the Vegas line seems to be a pretty fair expectation of how this one will play out. CHI wants to play an incredibly slow pace and every player on Detroit wants to shoot at the first glimpse of the rim. Should be interesting.
- Rodney Stuckey – I’m not sure if I’ll even use him tonight but it’s worth noting that he’s played extremely well in Smith’s absence and still has a good price point on most sites tonight.
Chicago
On the one hand, you look at the chart for the Bulls matchups tonight and you get all tingly seeing so much green and blue. On the other hand you remember it’s the Bulls and it doesn’t matter if the Harlem Globetrotters were in town, they’re not changing their pace of play. The one reliable guy here though, as always, is Joakim Noah. Coming off another triple-double, Noah will be able to feast on the immature Drummond. The Pistons also play horrible off-ball defense so Noah should be able to easily rack up assists.
- Joakim Noah – Big upside, reasonable price point on most sites and a great matchup. You can safely use Noah tonight in all formats.
Philadelphia at Memphis
- Vegas Line – Memphis -15, 200.5 Over/Under
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Anderson-Thompson-Young-Sims
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Prince-Randolph-Gasol
Philadelphia
This is Part 2 of “teams with wildly differing paces” after the Bulls/Pistons contest directly above. The Sixers are 1st in the NBA in PACE but somehow dead last in Team Offense Rating. The fact that they’ve managed to do that is downright impressive(ly bad). Tonight they get Memphis, in Memphis, as 15 point underdogs. I’d say best thing you’re hoping for here is a complete annihilation where Brett Brown keeps guys like MCW on the court against the Memphis backups and Tony Wroten gets some added run.
Memphis
I love targeting the Sixers defense as much as the next guy but the blowout concern here really worries me. On the one hand, it’s a must win game for Memphis who just saw SA hand Dallas a loss on Thursday and could make a big move with a W. But on the other hand, you have to wonder if guys like Gasol will stay on the court when this one gets ugly. My guess is no and for that reason, you should probably just stick to Memphis guys in tournaments tonight.
- Zach Randolph – ZBO is the guy I probably like the most, coming off a 46 FP effort. He’s been up and down over this last 4, with 2 games under 20 FP and 2 games over 45 FP, so he’s GPP only.
Houston at Minnesota
- Vegas Line – Houston -1, 216 Over/Under
- Houston Proj. Starters – Lin-Garcia-Parsons-Jones-Asik
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Hummel-Brewer-Love-Dieng
Houston
Houston should be without Harden and Dwight tonight, leaving the majority of their scoring available in a game with a huge O/U and close spread. Gear up because this is going to be a key game to target. Both teams are banged up so you’ll be able to find extreme values here. Both teams also push the tempo so targeting the few healthy studs is also going to be a smart move.
- Francisco Garcia – Garcia stands the most to gain if Harden sits, and has played well in good minutes with Harden healthy over the last 5 games.
- Jeremy Lin – Minnesota’s backcourt defense is atrocious and Lin will have to do a lot more scoring to make up for Harden’s absence tonight. I love his price tag on nearly every site as well.
- Chandler Parsons – Parsons is the last piece to the puzzle and while there’s some concern he sits tonight for precautionary reasons, if news breaks that he will play you can expect him to play a much bigger role than usual.
Minnesota
Much like the Rockets, the Wolves are banged up and in a terrific matchup tonight. Value is bountiful here with Martin and Pekovic doubtful and Barea questionable. Love was upgraded to probable and is likely the top high dollar play of the night against HOU’s defense. Overall, you can safely use almost any starter in these games. The one guy I’d avoid is Dante Cunningham, purely because I’m not a huge fan of how he’s being allowed to play after that whole terroristic threats arrest.
- Kevin Love – HOU ranks 24th against PFs on the last 15 days and Love has been bad enough lately that his price has dropped drastically on most sites. I think he puts on one last show before the year’s over.
- Gorgui Dieng – Love playing Dieng whenever possible but after a couple of middle-of-the-road performances his price has dropped a bit on most sites. I think that puts him in a good spot as a reasonably priced GPP option.
- Ricky Rubio – The biggest loss to the Rockets has been Patrick Beverley, who was at least able to secure one position defensively and that paid huge dividends for the remainder of the Rockets defense. Jeremy Lin doesn’t even know that there are two halves of a basketball court.
New Orleans at Oklahoma City
- Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -15.5, 205.5 Over/Under
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Roberts-Evans-Morrow-Aminu-Stiemsma
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Jackson-Durant-Ibaka-Perkins
New Orleans
Nothing like being 15.5 point underdogs to really inspire daily fantasy confidence. I fully expect this game to go as the line projects with NO shutting down Gordon and Davis for the season. The only good news is that minutes open up for guys like Miller, Aminu, Babbitt and Morrow with Stiemsma, Withey and Ajinca (who got a DNP-CD last game) seeing a boost as well. They’re short handed as a whole and even if this turns ugly the minutes should still be there for some of the bench guys playing more pronounced roles.
- Anthony Morrow – Morrow is the one guy I’d target tonight from the Pelicans because of his ability to get hot in a hurry. He’ll play in blowout minutes most likely and will shoot anytime he even catches a glimpse of breathing room.
Oklahoma City
The Thunder play tonight and then are off until Sunday’s tilt with Indy so don’t expect Westbrook to sit this one out. I’d imagine KD and Russ do their damage in the early going before finding a nice comfortable seat on the bench for most of the 4th quarter, but if somehow the Pelicans do stay in it, both should be able to post huge stat lines. Still, I’m avoiding those high dollar guys because of the blowout potential.
Cleveland at Milwaukee
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -4.5, 206 Over/Under
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Waiters-Deng-Thompson-Hawes
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Sessions-Middleton-Adrien-Pachulia
Cleveland
The Cavs smacked the Pistons on Wednesday but my boy Kyrie really screwed me good, destroying my best chance at taking down a GPP. Tonight he’ll get the Bucks and their joke of a team, against whom Irving has averaged 46 FPPG this season. I love how close the spread is here for targeting Cavs against the Bucks defense and the 206 O/U is pretty tasty as well.
- Kyrie Irving – He’s much better at home than on the road but he’s also torched the Bucks this season. What a conundrum. I’m leaning towards taking him.
- Dion Waiters – The Bucks are 6th against SGs over the last 15 days but they don’t have any guys defensively that make you fear using Waiters. His price has deflated back down after Irving’s return and he’s now a good mid-range play at SG.
Milwaukee
The Bucks might be a disaster but they can be a lot of fun for daily fantasy purposes. Brandon Knight is fresh off a 47 FP effort vs. IND, marking the second time this season he torched the league’s best defense, and lands tonight against a backcourt D that is FAR from good. Jeff Adrien has 40+ FP in 3 consecutive games and Zaza Pachulia has right around 30 in 3 of his last 4. There’s value to be had here and it’s a good matchup, so feel free to fire away on a couple Bucks tonight.
- Brandon Knight – Knight is a GPP play only, as he’s been all season, but his ceiling is always around 50 FP and he’s averaged 36.3 FPPG against the Cavs this season.
- Jeff Adrien – I’m looking at his $4.8K price point on DK and trying to find a reason not to use him there in all formats. I couldn’t find one.