NBA Grind Down: Friday, April 3rd
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
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Charlotte at Indiana – 7:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Indiana -5, 193.5 Over/Under
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Taylor-Williams-Jefferson
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Miles-Hill-West-Hibbert
| Charlotte | Indiana | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 193.5 |  | Vegas Total | 193.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.0 | Vegas Sprd | -5.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 94.3 | Team Proj. | 99.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.58 | Team Pace | 95.67 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kemba Walker | Gerald Henderson | Jeffery Taylor | Marvin Williams | Al Jefferson | Proj Starter | George Hill | C.J. Miles | Solomon Hill | David West | Roy Hibbert | |
| Opp. Season | 12 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 8 | Opp. Season | 14 | 8 | 3 | 18 | 6 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 20 | 26 | 5 | 22 | Opp. Last 7 | 24 | 6 | 20 | 18 | 14 | |
Charlotte
The Hornets have lost seven of their last ten games, but they are still only a game and a half behind the Heat for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. They head to Indiana to take on a Pacers’ team that is in a similar predicament. Both teams are on the outside looking in and a loss tonight could be the final straw. The Hornets are 5-point underdogs in a game that features a low total of only 193.5 points. The Pacers present a difficult matchup for fantasy production, as they are ranked seventh in both points allowed per game and rebounding differential.
Opponent Breakdown (Indiana)
Record: 32-43
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.5 (Rank: 7)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 10
Rebounding Differential Rank: 7
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Kemba Walker (FD: $8400, DK: $7700 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 25.9)
Walker is coming off of a strong eight-game stretch, where he has averaged 37.3 fantasy points per contest. His lowest output during that stretch was 29 fantasy points. While he does draw a tough matchup against George Hill and the Pacers, he is worth consideration as a tournament play, especially on DraftKings at a price of only $7,700.
Marvin Williams (FD: $4800, DK: $5100 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 13.1)
Cody Zeller has already been ruled out of tonight’s contest, which means Williams will draw another start at power forward. He has played well in his last four games, averaging 27.4 fantasy points per outing. He could push for around 35 minutes again tonight, but he does draw a difficult matchup against the physical David West.
Indiana
The Pacers have lost eight of their last ten games and are now two full games behind the Heat for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. They basically need to win out if they want any chance to making the playoffs. They have a good chance to start that streak tonight, as they host the visiting Hornets. This is another difficult matchup for fantasy production, as the Hornets are ranked fourth in points allowed per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Charlotte)
Record: 32-42
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.1 (Rank: 4)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Rebounding Differential Rank: 12
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
George Hill (FD: $7600, DK: $7500 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 25.5)
Hill has been my go-to play at point guard over the last couple of weeks and he has yet to disappoint. In his last seven games, he has averaged 37.7 fantasy points in 36 minutes per contest. The only reason he is not an elite play tonight is the expected pace of the game. He would see a sizable boost if Rodney Stuckey or C.J. Miles are unable to play.
David West (FD: $5700, DK: $5800 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 21.3)
We’ve seen West’s minutes slowly start to trend upward. In his last four games, he has averaged 28 fantasy points in 29 minutes per contest. His price is still depressed on both FanDuel and DraftKings, providing us an opportunity to buy low on the Pacers’ power forward. West doesn’t have a ton of upside for tournaments, but he does have a high floor for cash games.
New York at Washington – 7:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Washington -14.5, 192 Over/Under
- New York Proj. Starters – Larkin-Galloway-Thomas-Bargnani-Amundson
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Pierce-Hilario-Gortat
| New York | Washington | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 192 |  | Vegas Total | 192 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 14.5 | Vegas Sprd | -14.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 88.8 | Team Proj. | 103.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 93.48 | Team Pace | 96.04 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Shane Larkin | Langston Galloway | Lance Thomas | Andrea Bargnani | Louis Amundson | Proj Starter | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Paul Pierce | Nene Hilario | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opp. Season | 18 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 3 | Opp. Season | 19 | 24 | 2 | 7 | 24 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 8 | 12 | 1 | 18 | Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 11 | |
New York
The Knicks have lost eight games in a row, most of which have been blowouts. They are likely in for a similar fate tonight, as they head to Washington to take on the Wizards. The Knicks are 14.5-point underdogs with their team total set at only 89 points. The Wizards are ranked ninth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Targeting any of the Knicks’ players tonight is a reach and it’s not a recommended strategy in cash games.
Opponent Breakdown (Washington)
Record: 42-33
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.8 (Rank: 9)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 4
Rebounding Differential Rank: 4
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Andrea Bargnani (FD: $5800, DK: $5900), Langston Galloway (FD: $6000, DK: $5300), and Shane Larkin (FD: $4800, DK: $4100) are tournament plays at best in a potential blowout against the Wizards.
Washington
The Wizards picked up an easy win over the Sixers on Wednesday. They will likely have a similar result tonight against the Knicks, although I don’t expect the starters to see any fourth-quarter minutes like they did the other night. This game has blowout written all over it. The Knicks have the worst point differential of any team in the NBA and the 14.5-point spread is one of the biggest lines that we have seen all season.
Opponent Breakdown (New York)
Record: 14-61
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.4 (Rank: 22)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 29
Rebounding Differential Rank: 28
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
John Wall (FD: $9700, DK: $9000), Bradley Beal (FD: $5800, DK: $6000), Marcin Gortat (FD: $6900, DK: $6300), and Nene Hilario (FD: $4300, DK: $4400) are all secondary options tonight in a potential blowout against the Knicks.
Milwaukee at Boston – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Boston -5.5, 195 Over/Under
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-Ilyasova-Pachulia
- Boston Proj. Starters – Smart-Bradley-Turner-Bass-Zeller
| Milwaukee | Boston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 195 |  | Vegas Total | 195 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.5 | Vegas Sprd | -5.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 94.8 | Team Proj. | 100.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.22 | Team Pace | 98.32 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Ersan Ilyasova | Zaza Pachulia | Proj Starter | Marcus Smart | Avery Bradley | Evan Turner | Brandon Bass | Tyler Zeller | |
| Opp. Season | 20 | 4 | 15 | 22 | 23 | Opp. Season | 1 | 14 | 25 | 13 | 18 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 20 | 13 | 1 | 22 | 10 | Opp. Last 7 | 5 | 19 | 29 | 13 | 7 | |
Milwaukee
The Bucks have lost seven of their last ten games, but are in little danger of missing the playoffs. They are currently in the sixth seed and they have a three-game lead over the ninth-seeded Celtics with six games to play. The Bucks actually face the Celtics tonight in Boston and are listed as 5.5-point underdogs. This is a favorable matchup for the most part, as the Celtics have allowed the seventh-most points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Boston)
Record: 34-41
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.5 (Rank: 24)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 14
Rebounding Differential Rank: 18
Elite Plays
Ersan Ilyasova (FD: $5800, DK: $6500 / MPG: 22 / Usage Rate: 21.8)
Ilyasova has been quiet in his last three outings, but we can give him a pass, as he had to face the Bulls, Warriors, and Hawks. He draws a much better matchup tonight against the Celtics, who have struggled to defend opposing big men all season. Ilyasova has scored at least 28 fantasy points in six of his last nine games and he should be able to reach that mark again tonight. He’s a strong option in both cash games and tournaments.
Secondary Plays
Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD: $7000, DK: $6700) and Michael Carter-Williams (FD: $6600, DK: $6300) are both intriguing tournament options tonight against the Celtics. Both players are a little too inconsistent to trust in cash games, though.
Boston
The Celtics are currently tied with the Heat for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. A win tonight would really improve their chances of making the playoffs. While I do like their chances to win their third game in a row, this is not a great matchup for fantasy production. The Bucks are ranked eighth in points allowed per game and 2nd in defensive efficiency this season. Add in an inconsistent rotation, and the Celtics are an easy team to avoid tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Milwaukee)
Record: 37-38
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.6 (Rank: 8)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Rebounding Differential Rank: 19
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Evan Turner (FD: $7200, DK: $5900 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 19.4)
Turner is a DraftKings’ specific play tonight. His $7,200 price tag on FanDuel is too expensive, even in tournaments. Turner has played well over his last seven games, averaging 35 fantasy points in 33 minutes per contest. He deserves consideration as a tournament play tonight on DraftKings, as he only needs 30 fantasy points to meet value expectations.
Toronto at Brooklyn – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Brooklyn -2.5, 207 Over/Under
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Vasquez-DeRozan-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Brown-Johnson-Young-Lopez
| Toronto | Brooklyn | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 207 |  | Vegas Total | 207 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 2.5 | Vegas Sprd | -2.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.3 | Team Proj. | 104.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.59 | Team Pace | 94.94 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Greivis Vasquez | DeMar DeRozan | Terrence Ross | Amir Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | Proj Starter | Deron Williams | Markel Brown | Joe Johnson | Thaddeus Young | Brook Lopez | |
| Opp. Season | 15 | 23 | 10 | 28 | 19 | Opp. Season | 22 | 13 | 29 | 8 | 9 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 4 | 15 | 24 | 1 | Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 3 | 6 | |
Toronto
The Raptors have won six of their last ten games and are currently tied with the Bulls for the third-seed in the Eastern Conference. Tonight’s game against the Nets is expected to be both close and high scoring, two attributes of a game that we love to see in daily fantasy basketball. The Raptors are 2.5-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 207 points. This is one of the few games that really stands out for potential fantasy production tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Brooklyn)
Record: 34-40
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.6 (Rank: 18)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 23
Rebounding Differential Rank: 26
Elite Plays
DeMar DeRozan (FD: $7800, DK: $8000 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 28.3)
With Kyle Lowry out, DeRozan will continue to have an increased usage rate in the Raptors’ offense. He has been a fantastic source of fantasy production recently, averaging 36 fantasy points per game in his last eight outings. The Nets have struggled to contain opposing shooting guards this season, ranking 23rd against the position. Dollar for dollar, DeRozan is a top play at shooting guard tonight.
Amir Johnson (FD: $4800, DK: $4800 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 15.6)
It pains me to do it, but the matchup, price, and opportunity are too good to pass up. Johnson has seen an uptick in minutes recently, averaging 24 fantasy points in 30 minutes in his last five games. His price is still very playable at $4,800 on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he draws a favorable matchup against the Nets, who are ranked 28th against power forwards. He’s known for letdowns, but he is going to buck the trend with a big outing tonight.
Secondary Plays
Lou Williams (FD: $5000, DK: $5400) and Greivis Vasquez (FD: $4100, DK: $5000) are both viable secondary options with Kyle Lowry (doubtful) expected to miss tonight’s game against the Nets.
Brooklyn
The Nets have won five games in a row and eight of their last ten. If the season ended today, they would be the seventh-seed in the Eastern Conference. The Nets need to continue to win to lock up their playoff spot though, as there are quite a few teams that are hot on their trail. The Nets are small favorites tonight against the Raptors in what should be a competitive, high-scoring game. The Raptors are ranked 20th in points allowed per game and 21st in rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Toronto)
Record: 45-30
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.1 (Rank: 20)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 25
Rebounding Differential Rank: 21
Elite Plays
Brook Lopez (FD: $8400, DK: $8200 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 26.7)
Lopez may not be the quickest player in the NBA, but he does have a sweet hairdo. He has channeled the power of the mini-fro recently, averaging 45 fantasy points per game in his last eight outings. During that stretch, he has only scored less than 37 fantasy points one time. The Raptors have been stingy against centers this season, but Lopez should have another big outing in a must-win game for the Nets.
Deron Williams (FD: $6600, DK: $6100 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 22.4)
Williams is playing his best basketball of the season, averaging 33 fantasy points in 30 minutes per game in his last five outings. The Nets are still fighting for their playoff lives and I fully expect Williams to see 32-35 minutes tonight. Williams also draws a favorable against the Raptors, who are ranked 22nd against point guards this season.
Secondary Plays
Thaddeus Young (FD: $5900, DK: $5700) and Joe Johnson (FD: $5900, DK: $6100) are both in play tonight at their respective positions. Both players should log heavy minutes in a high-scoring game against the Raptors.
Detroit at Chicago – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Chicago -9, 196 Over/Under
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jackson-Caldwell-Pope-Butler-Tolliver-Drummond
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Brooks-Butler-Dunleavy-Gasol-Noah
| Detroit | Chicago | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 196 |  | Vegas Total | 196 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 9.0 | Vegas Sprd | -9.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 93.5 | Team Proj. | 102.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.40 | Team Pace | 95.34 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Reggie Jackson | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Caron Butler | Anthony Tolliver | Andre Drummond | Proj Starter | Aaron Brooks | Jimmy Butler | Mike Dunleavy | Pau Gasol | Joakim Noah | |
| Opp. Season | 25 | 5 | 19 | 14 | 7 | Opp. Season | 4 | 15 | 17 | 29 | 29 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 15 | 14 | 8 | 9 | Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 18 | 11 | 12 | 19 | |
Detroit
The Pistons travel to Chicago to take on the Bulls tonight. They are listed as 9-point underdogs with their team total set at only 93.5 points. This is not a great matchup for fantasy production, as the Bulls are ranked 12th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season. Greg Monroe is not expected to play tonight, which means Anthony Tolliver will likely draw another start at power forward.
Opponent Breakdown (Chicago)
Record: 45-30
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.4 (Rank: 11)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 12
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Reggie Jackson (FD: $8300, DK: $8500 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 24.3)
Jackson has been battling an illness. It has really affected his play in his last two games, as he has only managed to put up 31 and 26 fantasy points. He draws a fantastic matchup tonight against the Bulls, who are ranked 25th against point guards this season. There are two concerns here though. The first, and most obvious is his illness. The second is the potential blowout. He might be a little too risky to use in cash games tonight.
Chicago
The Bulls are in an interesting situation as the season comes to an end. They are tied with the Raptors for the third seed in the Eastern Conference. If they finish in third, they will have to face the Cavaliers in the second round. If they finish fourth, they will have to face the Hawks in the second round. They will likely just play out their games and let the chips fall where they may, but you never know. They may prefer to match up against one team or another. Anyway, they draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Pistons, who have fallen apart defensively over the last few weeks.
Opponent Breakdown (Detroit)
Record: 29-46
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.7 (Rank: 15)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 20
Rebounding Differential Rank: 11
Elite Plays
Pau Gasol (FD: $8800, DK: $8200 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 24.4)
Targeting any of the Bulls’ bigs can be a little unnerving, as all four see action on a nightly basis. The one that sees the most consistent minutes of the bunch is Gasol. He is having an outstanding season and he is coming off of a strong ten-game stretch, where he has averaged 38 fantasy points per game. Gasol draws a terrific matchup against Anthony Tolliver and the Pistons, who are ranked 29th against power forwards this season.
Secondary Plays
Jimmy Butler (FD: $8600, DK: $8000 / MPG: 39 / Usage Rate: 21.6)
Butler has played well since coming back from injury. He has scored 40+ fantasy points in back-to-back outings and he may play 40+ minutes tonight against the Pistons. Coach Thibodeau rarely gives Jimmy “Minutes” very much time on the bench and that’s not going to change with Kirk Hinrich out tonight. Butler is a borderline elite play tonight, especially on DraftKings.
Aaron Brooks (FD: $5900, DK: $5800 / MPG: 22 / Usage Rate: 25.4)
With Kirk Hinrich out tonight, Brooks could push for 35+ minutes of playing time. He’s not the Bulls’ first or second option offensively, but he does provide great upside at his price point. He’s certainly worth tournament consideration, as he will likely get overlooked with such a large slate of games.