NBA Grind Down: Friday, April 3rd - Page Two
Orlando at Minnesota – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Orlando -3, 201.5 Over/Under
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Payton-Oladipo-Harris-Vucevic-Dedmon
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – LaVine-Brown-Wiggins-Payne-Hamilton
| Orlando | Minnesota | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 201 |  | Vegas Total | 201 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -3.0 | Vegas Sprd | 3.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.3 | Team Proj. | 99.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.95 | Team Pace | 96.91 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Elfrid Payton | Victor Oladipo | Tobias Harris | Nikola Vucevic | Dewayne Dedmon | Proj Starter | Zach LaVine | Lorenzo Brown | Andrew Wiggins | Adreian Payne | Justin Hamilton | |
| Opp. Season | 29 | 27 | 26 | 24 | 28 | Opp. Season | 23 | 12 | 30 | 23 | 21 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 29 | 19 | 25 | 27 | Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 10 | 28 | 17 | 13 | |
Orlando
Daily fantasy basketball is a wonderful thing. Without it, no one would care about this game, not even the fans of either team. With it, this game becomes one of the best games on the schedule. The Magic and Timberwolves are two of the worst defensive teams in the NBA and this game is expected to stay close. Don’t be afraid to load up on players from both teams tonight, as it should be a fantasy goldmine.
Opponent Breakdown (Minnesota)
Record: 16-59
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.1 (Rank: 30)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 30
Rebounding Differential Rank: 24
Elite Plays
Nikola Vucevic (FD: $8200, DK: $7600 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 25.7)
The Magic are giving their four young stars all the minutes that they can handle, even in blowouts. That’s great news for their potential fantasy production. Vucevic has a depressed price point on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he draws one of the best matchups on the board. He gets to face a depleted Minnesota frontcourt, that is ranked 24th against power forwards and 24th in rebounding differential. He should dominate the paint tonight and is a threat to post a 20/20 type of game.
Victor Oladipo (FD: $8200, DK: $7500 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 24.9)
Oladipo continue to play all of the minutes that he can handle. In his last eight games, he has averaged 36 fantasy points in 38 minutes per contest. He is right there with Jimmy Butler and DeMar DeRozan as the top options at shooting guard. The difference between the three may come down to their price points. Oladipo is the cheapest of the three on DraftKings at $7,500.
Secondary Plays
Elfrid Payton (FD: $7900, DK: $7500) and Tobias Harris (FD: $6400, DK: $6400) are both viable options against the Wolves. Both players have good upside and should push for 35+ minutes.
Minnesota
Kevin Martin said that he was going to play tonight, but he has already been downgraded to questionable. We are likely going to have to wait until right before tip-off to know his status. If he is out again tonight, Zach LaVine and Andrew Wiggins will continue to carry the load offensively. The Wolves draw a terrific matchup against the Magic, who are ranked 25th in points allowed per game and 25th in rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Orlando)
Record: 22-53
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.1 (Rank: 25)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 26
Rebounding Differential Rank: 25
Elite Plays
Andrew Wiggins (FD: $7000, DK: $6800 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 22)
We know what we are going to get with Wiggins. He’s going to be the Wolves’ primary option offensively and he’s going to play close to 40 minutes. Throw in a matchup against the Magic and we have ourselves a recipe for success. The Magic are ranked dead last against small forwards this season. Wiggins is a low-risk, decent-reward play tonight in all league formats.
Zach LaVine (FD: $5800, DK: $6100 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 21.8)
With Ricky Rubio out, LaVine will draw another start at point guard and he should push for close to 40 minutes of action once again. In his last six games, he has averaged 28 fantasy points per contest. He is still struggling with turnovers, but the offensive production is there. He draws a terrific matchup against the Magic, who are ranked 23rd against point guards this season.
Secondary Plays
Justin Hamilton (FD: $4900, DK: $4800 / MPG: 15 / Usage Rate: 14.9)
I’ve been patiently waiting for a track to explode on. Remember when 50 was cool like 20 years ago? Now he just throws awful first pitches. Anyway, I’ve been patiently waiting for Hamilton’s minutes to increase and by golly, they have. He played 31 minutes against the Raptors the other night. If he can stay out of foul trouble tonight, I like his chances to reach and exceed value against the Magic.
Oklahoma City at Memphis – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Memphis -6, 201.5 Over/Under
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Waiters-Singler-Kanter-Adams
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Green-Randolph-Gasol
| Oklahoma City | Memphis | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 201 |  | Vegas Total | 201 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 6.0 | Vegas Sprd | -6.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.8 | Team Proj. | 103.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.24 | Team Pace | 94.27 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Russell Westbrook | Dion Waiters | Kyle Singler | Enes Kanter | Steven Adams | Proj Starter | Mike Conley | Courtney Lee | Jeff Green | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol | |
| Opp. Season | 6 | 11 | 14 | 4 | 2 | Opp. Season | 26 | 7 | 23 | 27 | 4 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 18 | 21 | 25 | 15 | 12 | Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 28 | 27 | 23 | 8 | |
Oklahoma City
The Thunder draw one of the worst matchups on the board. The Thunder are typically a great team to target because they play at an extremely fast pace. The Grizzlies are known for making opponents play down to their pace, which really hurts the fantasy appeal of the Thunder. The Grizzlies are also ranked second in points allowed per game this season. The Thunder are only projected to score 98 points tonight, which is almost six points lower than their average on the season.
Opponent Breakdown (Memphis)
Record: 51-24
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.5 (Rank: 2)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 5
Rebounding Differential Rank: 14
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Russell Westbrook (FD: $12700, DK: $12500) and Enes Kanter (FD: $7400, DK: $7800) are both decent tournament targets tonight against the Grizzlies. There are better options at their respective positions for cash games though.
Memphis
The Grizzlies need to win tonight to tie the Rockets for the second seed in the Western Conference. They have every reason to win and they draw a fantastic matchup against the Thunder, who have played at the fastest-pace of any team in the NBA over the last three weeks. Even though the Grizzlies like to control the pace of play, this will still be a pace-up game for Memphis. The Grizzlies are projected to score 104 points tonight, which is six points higher than their season average.
Opponent Breakdown (Oklahoma City)
Record: 42-33
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.3 (Rank: 21)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 1
Elite Plays
Marc Gasol (FD: $7400, DK: $7200 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 24.7)
Zach Randolph is probable for tonight’s game against the Thunder. Gasol is in play regardless, but he would see a sizable boost if Randolph is unable to play. Gasol would also see a boost if Steven Adams is ruled out for the Thunder. Gasol’s price is depressed across the industry and he should be able to put up a big outing tonight. Take advantage of the depressed price and the favorable matchup.
Mike Conley (FD: $5900, DK: $6100 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 23.8)
Dollar for dollar, I have Conley ranked as my number one point guard on both FanDuel and DraftKings tonight. Crazy, right? For those of you wondering, no I’m not taking advantage of the laws in Colorado. I don’t land in Denver until next Friday for the DFS Boot Camp. Conley’s minutes are trending upward, as he has averaged 28 fantasy points in 34 minutes per game in his last three outings. He also draws one of the best matchups on the board, as the Thunder are ranked 26th against point guards this season.
Secondary Plays
None
Denver at San Antonio – 8:30 PM
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -12.5, 206.5 Over/Under
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Foye-Chandler-Gallinari-Faried
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter
| Denver | San Antonio | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 206 |  | Vegas Total | 206 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 12.5 | Vegas Sprd | -12.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.0 | Team Proj. | 109.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.41 | Team Pace | 95.83 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | Randy Foye | Wilson Chandler | Danilo Gallinari | Kenneth Faried | Proj Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | Tim Duncan | Tiago Splitter | |
| Opp. Season | 9 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 14 | Opp. Season | 8 | 29 | 27 | 30 | 25 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 15 | Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 27 | 7 | 28 | 28 | |
Denver
The Nuggets have lost six of their last ten games and will likely be handed another defeat by the defending-champion Spurs tonight. The Nuggets are listed as 12.5-point underdogs tonight. The Spurs own a top five defense and this game has the potential to turn into a blowout. I will be avoiding the Nuggets completely tonight, as there are better matchups to exploit.
Opponent Breakdown (San Antonio)
Record: 49-26
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.1 (Rank: 4)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Rebounding Differential Rank: 10
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
San Antonio
The Spurs draw a favorable matchup against the Nuggets tonight. They are also off tomorrow, which is good. That said, Coach Popovich has no reason to play his starters more than absolutely necessary. The Spurs are huge favorites against the Nuggets, who have already made their vacation plans for when the season ends. It may be one of those nights where it’s best to avoid all Spurs’ players in cash games.
Opponent Breakdown (Denver)
Record: 28-47
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.8 (Rank: 27)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 24
Rebounding Differential Rank: 19
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Kawhi Leonard (FD: $8200, DK: $7900), Tim Duncan (FD: $7000, DK: $6500), and Tony Parker (FD: $5900, DK: $5600) are all in great individual matchups tonight. They are all secondary options though, given the potential blowout.
New Orleans at Sacramento – 10:00 PM
- Vegas Line – New Orleans -5.5, 205.5 Over/Under
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Evans-Gordon-Pondexter-Davis-Asik
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – McCallum-McLemore-Casspi-Landry-Cousins
| New Orleans | Sacramento | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 205.5 |  | Vegas Total | 205.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -5.5 | Vegas Sprd | 5.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 105.5 | Team Proj. | 100.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 93.74 | Team Pace | 97.91 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Tyreke Evans | Eric Gordon | Quincy Pondexter | Anthony Davis | Omer Asik | Proj Starter | Ray McCallum | Ben McLemore | Omri Casspi | Carl Landry | DeMarcus Cousins | |
| Opp. Season | 27 | 30 | 12 | 20 | 27 | Opp. Season | 16 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 13 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 19 | 24 | 21 | 27 | 17 | Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 29 | |
New Orleans
The Pelicans have pulled within a game and a half of the Thunder for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. If they win tonight and the Thunder lose to the Grizzlies, they will both have 34 losses on the season. The Pelicans are 5.5-point favorites against the Kings in what should be a high-scoring game. The Kings have allowed the second-most points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Sacramento)
Record: 26-48
Points Allowed Per Game: 105 (Rank: 29)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 27
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3
Elite Plays
Anthony Davis (FD: $12200, DK: $11400 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 27.6)
If you can find a way to get Davis into your lineups, it is highly recommended. He had a subpar outing against the Kings last week, but Rudy Gay will not be in the lineup tonight. Gay’s length was an issue for Davis, but he shouldn’t have that problem against the likes of Carl Landry and Jason Thompson. Davis is the top overall play tonight and with all of the value available, it’s easy to make room for him in your lineup.
Secondary Plays
Tyreke Evans (FD: $7800, DK: $7600 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 25.9)
Evans loves to face his former team. In seven meetings against them in the last two seasons, he has averaged 21 points, 5 rebounds, and 7 assists per game. That equates to 37 fantasy points per game before taking into account steals, blocks, and turnovers. Evans is a very sneaky play tonight, as most people will gravitate to other options at point guard.
Sacramento
The Kings will be without Rudy Gay again tonight, as he has already been ruled out after suffering a concussion. There hasn’t been any update on DeMarcus Cousins, so hopefully no news is good news. On paper, this isn’t the most appealing matchup, but there are two options that really stand out tonight against the Pelicans.
Opponent Breakdown (New Orleans)
Record: 40-34
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.5 (Rank: 13)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 22
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5
Elite Plays
DeMarcus Cousins (FD: $11900, DK: $10000 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 33.7)
Cousins faced this same Pelicans’ team last weekend and posted a ridiculous stat line of 39 points, 20 rebounds, 2 assists, and 3 blocks. He backed that up with a stat line of 24 points, 21 rebounds, 10 assists, 6 blocks, and 3 steals the other night against the Rockets. He has now topped 70 fantasy points in three of his last four games. As long as he gets the green light to play tonight, he should be targeted in all leagues.
Omri Casspi (FD: $4000, DK: $4000 / MPG: 19 / Usage Rate: 17.6)
Casspi will draw another start at small forward tonight. He played well in Gay’s absence on Wednesday night, putting up a stat line of 18 points, 7 rebounds, 4 assists, and 3 steals. We can’t expect the same production out of him tonight, but he’ll certainly have the opportunity to do so. At a price of only $4,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings, Casspi is one of the best value plays on the board.
Secondary Plays
None
Portland at L.A. Lakers – 10:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Portland -10, 200.5 Over/Under
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Afflalo-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez
- L.A. Lakers Proj. Starters – Lin-Clarkson-Johnson-Kelly-Black
| Portland | L.A. Lakers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 200.5 |  | Vegas Total | 200.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -10.0 | Vegas Sprd | 10.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 105.3 | Team Proj. | 95.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.35 | Team Pace | 96.32 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | Arron Afflalo | Nicolas Batum | LaMarcus Aldridge | Robin Lopez | Proj Starter | Jordan Clarkson | Jeremy Lin | Wesley Johnson | Ryan Kelly | Tarik Black | |
| Opp. Season | 30 | 26 | 22 | 12 | 26 | Opp. Season | 28 | 22 | 11 | 1 | 5 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 17 | 23 | 23 | 14 | 21 | Opp. Last 7 | 29 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 3 | |
Portland
The Blazers are fighting for playoff positioning in the tough Western Conference, so they have every reason to win tonight against the Lakers. This is a favorable matchup, as the Lakers are ranked 28th in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency this season. The only concern here is a potential blowout. The Blazers are 9-point favorites against a Lakers’ team that has nothing to play for.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Lakers)
Record: 20-54
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.8 (Rank: 28)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 28
Rebounding Differential Rank: 14
Elite Plays
LaMarcus Aldridge (FD: $9300, DK: $9000 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 30)
Aldridge has scored at least 40 fantasy points in three of his last four games. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against Ryan Kelly. He should have an advantage in the post and on the glass. His price is still affordable across the industry and he provides a decent alternative to Anthony Davis if you are looking to differentiate your lineup.
Damian Lillard (FD: $8400, DK: $7800 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 26.5)
The Lakers are STILL ranked dead last against point guards this season. They don’t play great on-ball defense and they don’t have an elite rim protector. Lillard should be able to create open shots whenever he wants them, whether he’s shooting jumpers or attacking the rim.
Secondary Plays
Nicolas Batum (FD: $6700, DK: $6700), Robin Lopez (FD: $5200, DK: $4600), and Arron Afflalo (FD: $4000, DK: $4300) are all viable secondary options tonight against the Lakers.
L.A. Lakers
The Lakers are large underdogs at home tonight. They are counting down the days until the end of the season and really have nothing to play for other than pride at this point in the season. They draw a tough matchup against the Blazers, who are ranked tenth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Portland)
Record: 48-26
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.3 (Rank: 10)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 9
Rebounding Differential Rank: 9
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Jordan Clarkson (FD: $7500, DK: $6400), Jeremy Lin (FD: $5700, DK: $5700), Wesley Johnson (FD: $4200, DK: $4700) and Ryan Kelly (FD: $4300, DK: $4200) are all decent options against the Blazers, but they don’t stand out as must starts at their respective positions.