NBA Grind Down: Friday, February 6th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
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Cleveland at Indiana – 7:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -5.5, 196 Over/Under
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Smith-James-Love-Mozgov
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Stuckey-Miles-West-Hibbert
| Cleveland | Indiana | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 196 |  | Vegas Total | 196 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -5.5 | Vegas Sprd | 5.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.8 | Team Proj. | 95.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.61 | Team Pace | 95.51 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kyrie Irving | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Timofey Mozgov | Proj Starter | George Hill | Rodney Stuckey | C.J. Miles | David West | Roy Hibbert | |
| Opp. Season | 12 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 12 | Opp. Season | 7 | 22 | 28 | 16 | 15 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 26 | Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 12 | 18 | 7 | 16 | |
Cleveland
The Cavaliers extended their winning streak to 12 games last night with a win over the Clippers. They will look to keep the streak alive tonight, as they head to Indiana to take on the Pacers. While they should be in line for another win, this is not a matchup that we can exploit. The Pacers are ranked in the top 11 in defensive efficiency, points allowed per game, and rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Indiana)
Record: 18-32
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.2 (Rank: 6)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 11
Rebounding Differential Rank: 6
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
LeBron James (FD: $11000, DK: $10500 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 32.1)
James is about as matchup-proof of a player as you will find in the NBA. I’m not worried about the matchup as much as the pace of the game though. The total is set at only 196 points, which suggests a low-scoring affair between these two teams. It may be hard for James to pay off his hefty price tag tonight.
Indiana
The Pacers have lost seven of their last ten games, but are still only four and a half games out of the playoffs in the East. While most teams around them are tanking, the Pacers are trying to make another trip to the playoffs. Vegas has them listed as 5.5-point underdogs tonight with their team total set at only 95.3 points. With the way the Cavaliers have dominated their opponents recently, the Pacers are an easy team to avoid altogether.
Opponent Breakdown (Cleveland)
Record: 31-20
Points Allowed Per Game: 99 (Rank: 13)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 22
Rebounding Differential Rank: 8
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
C.J. Miles (FD: $5000, DK: $4000 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 24.1)
Miles was inserted into the starting lineup on Wednesday night against the Pistons. He played well, finishing the game with 15 points, 3 rebounds, and 3 steals. He is seeing a ton of three-point attempts as a starter, which should continue tonight against the Cavaliers. Miles may be a bit too expensive to use on FanDuel ($5,000), but is a terrific value play on DraftKings ($4,000).
New York at Brooklyn – 7:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Brooklyn -7, 194 Over/Under
- New York Proj. Starters – Calderon-Galloway-Anthony-Smith-Amundson
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Jack-Anderson-Johnson-Garnett-Plumlee
| New York | Brooklyn | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 194 |  | Vegas Total | 194 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.0 | Vegas Sprd | -7.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 93.5 | Team Proj. | 100.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 92.79 | Team Pace | 94.32 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jose Calderon | Langston Galloway | Carmelo Anthony | Jason Smith | Louis Amundson | Proj Starter | Jarrett Jack | Alan Anderson | Joe Johnson | Kevin Garnett | Mason Plumlee | |
| Opp. Season | 18 | 25 | 6 | 22 | 6 | Opp. Season | 25 | 26 | 1 | 6 | 20 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 19 | 5 | 11 | 10 | Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 17 | 25 | |
New York
The battle of New York isn’t nearly as important with both of these teams tanking. The Knicks are 5-5 in their last ten games, but still own a paltry 10-39 record on the season. Vegas has the Knicks listed as 7-point underdogs tonight against the Nets with their team total set at only 93.5 points. Carmelo Anthony is overpriced for his matchup, but there is one value play that is on my radar tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Brooklyn)
Record: 20-28
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.5 (Rank: 15)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 19
Rebounding Differential Rank: 23
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Jason Smith (FD: $4700, DK: $5100 / MPG: 21 / Usage Rate: 19.6)
Smith continues to play well as a starter for the Knicks. Even if Amar’e Stoudemire is able to suit up tonight, Smith should see 30+ minutes against the Nets. Over his last eight games, he has averaged 25 fantasy points in 32 minutes per contest. If he can replicate that tonight, he will reach value with ease at his price point.
Editor’s Note: Amar’e Stoudemire will play tonight.
Brooklyn
The Nets have won two games in a row and are currently only a half game out of the playoffs in the East. It seems like the Nets’ front office doesn’t know whether to tank or whether they should make a playoff push. The Nets are sizable favorites tonight against the Knicks, who are ranked in the bottom ten in defensive efficiency, points allowed per game, and rebounding differential this season. The matchup is there, but are there really any options on the Nets that we can trust?
Opponent Breakdown (New York)
Record: 10-39
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.3 (Rank: 20)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 28
Rebounding Differential Rank: 28
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Jarrett Jack (FD: $7600, DK: $6800 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 21.6)
Jack’s minutes and production have not been hampered with Deron Williams back in the mix. Jack has averaged 33 fantasy points in 38 minutes per game over his last two outings. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Knicks, who have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing point guards over the last three weeks of play.
L.A. Lakers at Orlando – 7:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Orlando -3, 201.5 Over/Under
- L.A. Lakers Proj. Starters – Clarkson-Ellington-Kelly-Black-Sacre
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Payton-Oladipo-Fournier-Harris-Vucevic
| L.A. Lakers | Orlando | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 201.5 |  | Vegas Total | 201.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.0 | Vegas Sprd | -3.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.3 | Team Proj. | 102.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.87 | Team Pace | 96.22 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jordan Clarkson | Wayne Ellington | Ryan Kelly | Tarik Black | Robert Sacre | Proj Starter | Elfrid Payton | Victor Oladipo | Evan Fournier | Tobias Harris | Nikola Vucevic | |
| Opp. Season | 29 | 10 | 29 | 24 | 28 | Opp. Season | 30 | 21 | 12 | 13 | 24 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 19 | 30 | 23 | 19 | 12 | Opp. Last 7 | 10 | 20 | 21 | 12 | 5 | |
L.A. Lakers
The Lakers have lost nine of their last ten games, but have been surprisingly competitive in their last few games. Vegas has the Lakers listed as only 3-point underdogs in what should be one of the fastest-paced games on tonight’s schedule. The Lakers draw a favorable matchup against the Magic, who have allowed their opponents to score at least 100 points in each of their last 14 games.
Opponent Breakdown (Orlando)
Record: 15-37
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.3 (Rank: 24)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 25
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27
Elite Plays
Carlos Boozer (FD: $6000, DK: $5700 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 22.6)
I’m hesitant to list Boozer as an elite play, but with Jordan Hill out, his minutes and his production are trending in the right direction. He has scored at least 30 fantasy points in four of his last five games. He also draws a favorable matchup against a Magic team that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards this season. If he plays well again tonight, I may have to buy a can of hair paint in his honor.
Secondary Plays
Ed Davis (FD: $5300, DK: $4500), Jordan Clarkson (FD: $4500, DK: $4600), Wayne Ellington (FD: $5000, DK: $5200), and Nick Young (FD: $4400, DK: $3000) are all viable secondary options tonight against the Magic.
Orlando
The Magic have fired coach Jacque Vaughn and James Borrego will take over as the interim head coach. The Magic have shown little semblance of any defense in recent weeks, so it will be interesting to see if Borrego decides to slow the pace of play down a bit. Either way, the Magic are in a prime matchup tonight against the Lakers, who have allowed the second-most points per game to their opponents this season.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Lakers)
Record: 13-36
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.1 (Rank: 29)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 29
Rebounding Differential Rank: 20
Elite Plays
Nikola Vucevic (FD: $8900, DK: $8100 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 25.5)
With Hassan Whiteside doubtful tonight, the easy pivot at center is to Nikola Vucevic. The Lakers have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to centers and are ranked 20th in rebounding differential this season. A 20-point, 20-rebound performance from Vucevic is not out of the question tonight.
Tobias Harris (FD: $6100, DK: $5800 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 23.7)
Harris is one of my favorite plays at any position tonight. He is underpriced across the industry and he draws a premier matchup against the Lakers. Harris has played at least at least 38 minutes in each of his last two games and is still priced as if he is coming off the bench. He will be a staple in many of my lineups tonight.
Secondary Plays
Victor Oladipo (FD: $6900, DK: $6600), Elfrid Payton (FD: $5700, DK: $5500), and Evan Fournier (FD: $3800, DK: $3500) are all in play tonight against the Lakers.
Editor’s Note: Evan Fournier is not starting for the Magic tonight. Channing Frye takes his place in the starting lineup. His price is still low, but it’s unclear how many minutes he’ll get with a new head coach in place.
Golden State at Atlanta – 7:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Golden State -1.5, 214.5 Over/Under
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
| Golden State | Atlanta | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 214.5 |  | Vegas Total | 214.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -1.5 | Vegas Sprd | 1.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 108.0 | Team Proj. | 106.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 101.32 | Team Pace | 95.97 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | DeMarre Carroll | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | |
| Opp. Season | 16 | 12 | 11 | 18 | 5 | Opp. Season | 8 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 21 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 16 | 10 | 29 | 3 | Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 28 | 24 | 16 | 23 | |
Golden State
The Warriors are coming off of an impressive comeback victor over the Mavericks. They were down by as many as 22 points in that game, yet they still ended up winning by 14 points. Tonight they travel to Atlanta to take on the Hawks in a battle of the two best records in the entire NBA. Vegas has the Warriors listed as 1.5-point favorites in a game that features a total of 214.5 points. Even though these teams are both stout defensively, this is expected to be one of the highest-scoring games of the night.
Opponent Breakdown (Atlanta)
Record: 41-9
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.5 (Rank: 3)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 5
Rebounding Differential Rank: 22
Elite Plays
Stephen Curry (FD: $10400, DK: $10400 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 28.1)
Curry is by far my favorite player to watch in the NBA. He seemingly has two or three plays a night where you just have to shake your head in awe. He is coming off of a 51-point performance against the Mavericks. He has scored at least 42 fantasy points in six straight games and draws a favorable matchup against the Hawks, who have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards over the last three weeks.
Secondary Plays
Draymond Green (FD: $7100, DK: $7300 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 16.5)
The Warriors have been conservative with Green’s minutes recently, but I expect him to see in the mid 30’s tonight against the Hawks. I have a hard time seeing either team blowing out the other, which means all starters should log heavy minutes in this one. Green’s price is down and he only needs around 35 fantasy points to meet value expectations.
Atlanta
The Hawks have won nine of their last ten games and can officially take over the best record in the NBA with a win over the Warriors tonight. This game has a very generous total of 214.5 points, with the Hawks’ team total set at 106.5 points. Even though the Warriors are ranked 1st in defensive efficiency, their pace of play offsets it. They have allowed the 16th most points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Golden State)
Record: 39-8
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.8 (Rank: 16)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 1
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16
Elite Plays
Jeff Teague (FD: $7700, DK: $7400 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 25.5)
Teague is coming off of a terrific outing against the Wizards in which he had 26 points, 2 rebounds, and 8 assists. His production is trending upward and his salary is still at a very playable level across the industry. Tonight he squares off against Stephen Curry and the Warriors, in what should be one of the fastest-paced games of the evening.
Secondary Plays
Al Horford (FD: $8400, DK: $7900 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 22.4)
Horford is rarely talked about in DFS and I’m not exactly sure why. He has been on a tear recently, averaging 17 points, 9 rebounds, and 4 assists over his last ten games. His price has come up, but he’s still an excellent option on DraftKings at $7,900. He draws a favorable matchup against the Warriors, who have allowed the tenth-most fantasy points to opposing centers this season.
DeMarre Carroll (FD: $4900, DK: $4100 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 15.8)
Carroll’s price is depressed across the industry. If he can score 25 fantasy points tonight, he will reach and exceed value with ease. He should see his usual complement of minutes in a very fast-paced game. He’s a safe option at small forward if you need some salary cap relief at the position.
Philadelphia at Boston – 7:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Boston -7, 194.5 Over/Under
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Sampson-Covington-Mbah a Moute-Noel
- Boston Proj. Starters – Smart-Bradley-Turner-Sullinger-Bass
| Philadelphia | Boston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 194.5 |  | Vegas Total | 194.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.0 | Vegas Sprd | -7.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 93.8 | Team Proj. | 100.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.00 | Team Pace | 98.71 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | Jakarr Sampson | Robert Covington | Luc Mbah a Moute | Nerlens Noel | Proj Starter | Marcus Smart | Avery Bradley | Evan Turner | Jared Sullinger | Brandon Bass | |
| Opp. Season | 20 | 3 | 19 | 29 | 22 | Opp. Season | 24 | 29 | 24 | 30 | 30 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 5 | 23 | 13 | 18 | 21 | Opp. Last 7 | 22 | 4 | 28 | 2 | 27 | |
Philadelphia
The Sixers have nothing to play for at this point of the season. Every win from here on out could cost them a chance at next year’s number one pick in the draft. Tonight they head to Boston to take on the Celtics in a game that features a total of 194.5 points. While the total is relatively low, don’t let it fool you. Both of these teams play at a very fast pace, they are just inefficient offensively. This is still a favorable matchup for both sides.
Opponent Breakdown (Boston)
Record: 18-30
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.9 (Rank: 25)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 14
Rebounding Differential Rank: 19
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Michael Carter-Williams (FD: $8500, DK: $7900 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 27.6)
MCW is usually a better tournament play than a cash game play, but his price is low enough on DraftKings that he warrants consideration in all league formats. He will likely have to deal with the pesky combination of Avery Bradley and Marcus Smart, but MCW’s ability to fill up all areas of the stat sheet helps offset the tough matchup.
Editor’s Note: Carter-Williams is out for tonight’s game due to injury.
Robert Covington (FD: $6300, DK: $5700 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 20.6)
Covington would be an elite play if it weren’t for his inflated price tag. He has been outstanding over his last six outings, averaging 30 fantasy points in 31 minutes per game. Tonight he draws a favorable matchup against Evan Turner, who does not exert a ton of energy on the defensive end of the floor.
Boston
The most interesting storyline for the Celtics is whether or not Jared Sullinger is going to show up on time or not. The Celtics are only 18-30 on the season, but are listed as 7-point favorites tonight against the Sixers. The Celtics’ team total is set at 101 points, which is right around their average for the season. Keep your eye on Sullinger tonight. If he is back in the starting lineup, he could post a monster outing against a Sixers’ team that is ranked dead last in rebounding differential.
Opponent Breakdown (Philadelphia)
Record: 11-39
Points Allowed Per Game: 101 (Rank: 21)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 12
Rebounding Differential Rank: 30
Elite Plays
Marcus Smart (FD: $4900, DK: $4600 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 14.3)
Smart has looked comfortable as the Celtics’ starting point guard. Over his last two games, he has averaged 9 points, 7 rebounds, 6 assists, and 3 steals in 39 minutes per game. His salary is still sub-$5k on both FanDuel and DraftKings, making him one of the top plays at the point guard position. He also draws a favorable matchup tonight against Sixers, who have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season.
Secondary Plays
Avery Bradley (FD: $5100, DK: $4500 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 20.7)
Bradley is a serviceable value play at shooting guard. He has seen an uptick in minutes since the Jeff Green trade. Over his last nine games, he has scored at least 22 fantasy points seven times. He also sees a matchup boost against this Sixers’ team that does not defend any position particularly well.