NBA Grind Down: Friday, February 6th - Page Two
Denver at Detroit – 7:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Detroit -6, 205 Over/Under
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Afflalo-Chandler-Faried-Nurkic
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Augustin-Caldwell-Pope-Singler-Monroe-Drummond
| Denver | Detroit | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 205 |  | Vegas Total | 205 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 6.0 | Vegas Sprd | -6.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.50 | Team Proj. | 105.50 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.44 | Team Pace | 95.79 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | Arron Afflalo | Wilson Chandler | Kenneth Faried | Jusuf Nurkic | Proj Starter | D.J. Augustin | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Kyle Singler | Greg Monroe | Andre Drummond | |
| Opp. Season | 5 | 16 | 25 | 27 | 27 | Opp. Season | 13 | 28 | 26 | 28 | 25 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 27 | 8 | 13 | 30 | Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 25 | 30 | 27 | 14 | |
Denver
Brian Shaw has lost this Nuggets’ team and they are in an absolute free-fall. They have lost nine of their last ten games, a few of those were against some inferior opponents. Tonight they head to Detroit to take on the Pistons in a game that features a total of 205 points. The matchup is there, but it’s tough to trust any of the Nuggets at this point.
Opponent Breakdown (Detroit)
Record: 19-31
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.1 (Rank: 19)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 17
Rebounding Differential Rank: 9
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Ty Lawson (FD: $8400, DK: $7900 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 21)
Lawson is not going to make many lists of recommended plays tonight, but is worth a look as a contrarian play in tournaments. Jameer Nelson has already been ruled out for tonight’s game and Lawson is going to need to take over offensively if they are going to get back on track. Avoid him in cash games, but keep him in mind if you are throwing a few teams in some of the large GPPs tonight.
Detroit
The Pistons just can’t seem to get over the hump. I still have them making the playoffs this season, but they have some ground to make up if they want to catch the Hornets or the Heat. They should be able to pick up a win tonight against the struggling Nuggets. Vegas has the Pistons listed as 6-point favorites with their team total set at 105.5 points. As long as this game stays close, the Pistons will be a gold mine for daily fantasy.
Opponent Breakdown (Denver)
Record: 19-31
Points Allowed Per Game: 104 (Rank: 26)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 22
Rebounding Differential Rank: 13
Elite Plays
Greg Monroe (FD: $8200, DK: $8200 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 23.7)
I expect nothing less than a 40+ fantasy point outing from Monroe tonight. The Nuggets have struggled to contain opposing power forwards all season, allowing the third-most fantasy points to the position. Monroe should see 35+ minutes against one of the worst interior defenses in the entire NBA. While he may not have the same upside as Anthony Davis, he is close to $3,000 cheaper on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
D.J. Augustin (FD: $7200, DK: $6600 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 22)
Targeting Augustin leaves an unsettling feeling in your stomach. Fading Augustin does the same thing. He has been inconsistent recently with his fantasy outings ranging from 10 to 51 fantasy points in his last four games. Augustin draws a prime matchup against the Nuggets though. He is a borderline cash game play tonight and an excellent target for tournaments.
Secondary Plays
Andre Drummond (FD: $8400, DK: $7800 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 21.1)
Drummond’s price has come down to a very playable level, especially on DraftKings. He has shown that he has the ability to post 50+ fantasy point outings, but he’s a little too inconsistent to use in cash games. He commits a lot of dumb fouls and I’d rather pay a little more to take Nikola Vucevic, who has a much higher floor than Drummond.
L.A. Clippers at Toronto – 7:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Toronto -2, 211.5 Over/Under
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Crawford-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-Vasquez-DeRozan-Johnson-Valanciunas
| L.A. Clippers | Toronto | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 211.5 |  | Vegas Total | 211.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 2.0 | Vegas Sprd | -2.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 104.75 | Team Proj. | 106.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.26 | Team Pace | 95.72 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Chris Paul | Jamal Crawford | Matt Barnes | Blake Griffin | DeAndre Jordan | Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | Greivis Vasquez | DeMar DeRozan | Amir Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opp. Season | 19 | 7 | 22 | 7 | 11 | Opp. Season | 4 | 15 | 17 | 12 | 18 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 17 | 17 | 9 | 7 | Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 29 | 29 | 3 | 8 | |
L.A. Clippers
The Clippers are looking to bounce back after getting run out of the gym by the Cavaliers last night. That game certainly didn’t live up to the hype. Look for a much better performance from the Clippers tonight against the Raptors. Vegas has them listed as 2-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 211.5 points.
Opponent Breakdown (Toronto)
Record: 33-17
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.1 (Rank: 22)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 21
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16
Elite Plays
Chris Paul (FD: $9700, DK: $9200 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 22.7)
Paul is not going to let his team get blown out two nights in a row. Look for Paul to bounce back in a big way against the Raptors, who have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards over the last three weeks.
Secondary Plays
Jamal Crawford (FD: $5200, DK: $5000 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 28.1)
J.J. Redick is doubtful for tonight’s game against the Raptors, which means Crawford will draw another start at shooting guard. In four starts this season, Crawford has averaged 35 minutes per game. His usage does go down a bit with the first unit, but the uptick in playing time makes him an appealing option at shooting guard.
Toronto
The Raptors have won seven of their last ten games. Tonight they host the Clippers, who are playing in the tail end of a back-to-back. The Clippers are a mediocre matchup for the most part, ranking right around the league average in both defensive efficiency and points allowed per game.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Clippers)
Record: 33-17
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.8 (Rank: 16)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 14
Rebounding Differential Rank: 18
Elite Plays
DeMar DeRozan (FD: $6900, DK: $6800 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 27.8)
DeRozan’s price is still at a playable level across the industry, even though he has scored at least 34 fantasy points in four of his last seven games. DeRozan has an extremely high usage rate (27.8) in the Raptors offense and he draws a favorable matchup against the Clippers, who have struggled to defend prolific scorers on the wing.
Secondary Plays
None
Milwaukee at Houston – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Houston -6, 203 Over/Under
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-Dudley-Henson
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Motiejunas-Dorsey
| Milwaukee | Houston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203 |  | Vegas Total | 203 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 6 | Vegas Sprd | -6 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.5 | Team Proj. | 104.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.3 | Team Pace | 98.54 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Brandon Knight | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Jared Dudley | John Henson | Proj Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Donatas Motiejunas | Joey Dorsey | |
| Opp. Season | 2 | 23 | 20 | 20 | 14 | Opp. Season | 1 | 8 | 23 | 9 | 17 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 24 | 15 | 24 | 13 | Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 19 | |
Milwaukee
The Bucks may have Ersan Ilyasova and Zaza Pachulia back for tonight’s game. Both are listed as questionable. If they are able to suit up, that would end the run for John Henson and Jared Dudley as value plays. The Bucks draw a tough matchup tonight against the Rockets, who are ranked third in defensive efficiency this season. The pace of the game should help, but there is really only one Bucks’ player that is on my radar tonight, unless of course, Ilyasova and/or Pachulia are ruled out.
Opponent Breakdown (Houston)
Record: 34-15
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.8 (Rank: 12)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Rebounding Differential Rank: 11
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD: $6400, DK: $6000 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 19.3)
Over his last five games, The Greek Alphabet has averaged 31.5 fantasy points in 37 minutes per game. He should continue to see extended playing time tonight against the Rockets, who have allowed the 11th most fantasy points to small forwards this season.
Houston
The Rockets are going to be without Dwight Howard for the foreseeable future, which means James Harden, Donatas Motiejunas, and Josh Smith will all have to step up in his absence. The Rockets are listed as 6-point favorites tonight against the Bucks in a game that features a total of 204 points. While the total is relatively high, the Bucks are a tough matchup. They have held their opponents to the fourth-fewest points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Milwaukee)
Record: 27-22
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.7 (Rank: 4)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Rebounding Differential Rank: 21
Elite Plays
James Harden (FD: $10800, DK: $10300 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 31.2)
Harden is priced under $11,000 in a game where his usage rate should be off the charts. He has scored at least 50 fantasy points in six of his last ten games. With Dwight Howard out, he should continue to be the focal point of the Rockets offense. The Bucks have been stingy against shooting guards this season, but Harden is fairly matchup-proof.
Secondary Plays
Donatas Motiejunas (FD: $5800, DK: $6000 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 18.7)
Motie “cash game” junas has scored at least 24 fantasy points nine times in his last ten games. He is also coming off of a terrific three-game stretch, where he averaged 21 points, 9 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. With Dwight Howard on the shelf, Motiejunas should see 30+ minutes tonight against the Bucks.
Memphis at Minnesota – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Memphis -8, 195 Over/Under
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Green-Randolph-Gasol
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Wiggins-Young-Pekovic
| Memphis | Minnesota | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 195 |  | Vegas Total | 195 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -8.00 | Vegas Sprd | 8.00 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101.5 | Team Proj. | 93.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.1 | Team Pace | 97.47 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Mike Conley | Courtney Lee | Jeff Green | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol | Proj Starter | Ricky Rubio | Kevin Martin | Andrew Wiggins | Thaddeus Young | Nikola Pekovic | |
| Opp. Season | 28 | 24 | 30 | 25 | 29 | Opp. Season | 3 | 17 | 13 | 5 | 1 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 16 | 2 | 25 | 23 | 28 | Opp. Last 7 | 18 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
Memphis
The Grizzlies are looking for their ninth consecutive win tonight, as they head to Minnesota to take on the T-Wolves. The Grizzlies are 8-point favorites in this one, but they could be a great source of fantasy production if this game stays within striking distance. The Wolves are ranked in the bottom seven in fantasy points allowed to all five positions on the floor this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Minnesota)
Record: 9-40
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.6 (Rank: 30)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 30
Rebounding Differential Rank: 24
Elite Plays
Zach Randolph (FD: $8700, DK: $8500 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 24.4)
The double-double machine should be in full force tonight against the T-Wolves. Not only are the T-Wolves ranked 24th in rebounding differential, but they have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards this season. Randolph has a high ceiling and a high floor, making him a solid target in all league formats.
Secondary Plays
Marc Gasol (FD: $8300, DK: $7800 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 25.1)
Gasol has a very high floor. He has scored at least 33 fantasy points in eight of his last ten games. He has a high usage rate for a center and he draws a favorable matchup against the T-Wolves. If you need a center that you can rely on in cash games, Gasol is your man.
Minnesota
The T-Wolves draw a tough matchup against the Grizzlies tonight. The Grizzlies play at a slow pace and have held their opponents to the fewest points per game this season. The T-Wolves’ team total is set at only 93.5 points, which is markedly lower than their season average.
Opponent Breakdown (Memphis)
Record: 37-12
Points Allowed Per Game: 96 (Rank: 1)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 8
Rebounding Differential Rank: 14
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Kevin Martin (FD: $6500, DK: $5700 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 27.5)
Martin has been terrific since coming back from injury. Over his last five games, he has averaged 21 points, 4 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. Martin played 40 minutes against the Heat the other night and he should similar minutes tonight against the Grizzlies if his team is able to keep the game close.
New Orleans at Oklahoma City – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -6, 198 Over/Under
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Evans-Gordon-Cunningham-Davis-Asik
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Roberson-Durant-Ibaka-Adams
| New Orleans | Oklahoma City | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 198 |  | Vegas Total | 198 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 6.0 | Vegas Sprd | -6.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.0 | Team Proj. | 102.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.08 | Team Pace | 96.94 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Tyreke Evans | Eric Gordon | Dante Cunningham | Anthony Davis | Omer Asik | Proj Starter | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Kevin Durant | Serge Ibaka | Steven Adams | |
| Opp. Season | 23 | 9 | 18 | 19 | 4 | Opp. Season | 21 | 14 | 9 | 10 | 10 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 15 | 14 | 25 | 18 | Opp. Last 7 | 30 | 7 | 1 | 15 | 9 | |
New Orleans
This is a rematch of Wednesday’s game, although the situation has changed a bit. This game will take place in Oklahoma City and the Thunder will have Kevin Durant back in the lineup. The Pelicans are listed as 6-point underdogs in this game, which seems a little low, given the fact that they are only 9-16 on the road this season. The Thunder do play at a quick pace, but they are also stout defensively, holding their opponents to the ninth-fewest points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Oklahoma City)
Record: 25-24
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.1 (Rank: 9)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 10
Rebounding Differential Rank: 4
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Anthony Davis (FD: $11400, DK: $10800 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 26.8)
Davis was held in check the other night against the Thunder. He finished the game with 23 points, 8 rebounds, and 2 assists. He’s actually a slightly better play tonight though, as the Pelicans lean on him more on the road. He has averaged nearly seven more fantasy points per game on the road this season than he has at home. He provides a high floor and a high ceiling. The only question is whether or not he will be able to pay off his hefty price tag.
Oklahoma City
The Thunder are expecting to have Kevin Durant back in the lineup tonight. Dion Waiters will head back to the bench and Russell Westbrook’s usage rate will come back down as well. Westbrook is an easy fade tonight, as his price is inflated and his production will likely take a hit. The Thunder draw a mediocre matchup against the Pelicans, who are ranked 14th in points allowed per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (New Orleans)
Record: 26-23
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.2 (Rank: 14)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 24
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3
Elite Plays
Kevin Durant (FD: $10700, DK: $9900 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 29.2)
Durant is less than $10,000 on DraftKings tonight. I repeat, Durant is less than $10,000 on DraftKings tonight. Get him in your lineups and move on to the next position. Durant has scored at least 45 fantasy points in four of his last six games and he should not be limited tonight against the Pelicans.
Secondary Plays
None