NBA Grind Down: Friday, January 16th - Page Three
L.A. Lakers at Utah – 9:00 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Utah -7.5, 196.5 Over/Under
- L.A. Lakers Proj. Starters – Price-Ellington-Johnson-Davis-Hill
- Utah Proj. Starters – Burke-Ingles-Hayward-Favors-Kanter
| L.A. Lakers | Utah | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 196.5 |  | Vegas Total | 196.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.5 | Vegas Sprd | -7.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 94.50 | Team Proj. | 102.00 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.57 | Team Pace | 92.92 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ronnie Price | Wayne Ellington | Wesley Johnson | Ed Davis | Jordan Hill | Proj Starter | Trey Burke | Joe Ingles | Gordon Hayward | Derrick Favors | Enes Kanter | |
| Opp. Season | 15 | 21 | 12 | 19 | 1 | Opp. Season | 30 | 17 | 11 | 18 | 27 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 30 | 25 | 25 | 15 | 1 | Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 13 | 6 | 10 | 18 | |
L.A. Lakers
Kobe Bryant had a terrific performance against the Cavaliers last night, but will now sit out the second half of the back-to-back. Wayne Ellington and Wesley Johnson should both see an uptick in minutes tonight. The Lakers’ matchup against the Jazz is a favorable one. The Jazz are ranked 27th in defensive efficiency, allowing opponents to score an average of 99.5 points per game.
Opponent Breakdown (Utah)
Record: 13-26
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.5
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 27
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3
Elite Plays
Wesley Johnson (FD: $5000, DK: $3000 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 14.4)
Johnson is another one of DraftKings’ $3,000 specials tonight. With Kobe Bryant out, he should see an uptick in both minutes and production. He can probably be avoided on FanDuel, but is one of the best plays available on DraftKings. He should easily reach 20 fantasy points tonight against the Jazz.
Secondary Plays
Wayne Ellington (FD: $4100, DK: $3000 / MPG: 19 / Usage Rate: 16.3)
With Kobe Bryant expected to rest, Ellington will draw the start at shooting guard. As a starter this season, he is averaging 11 points, 4 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. He’s a serviceable value play tonight against the Jazz.
Utah
The Jazz draw one of the most favorable matchups on the board tonight. They are hosting the Lakers, who are ranked 28th in defensive efficiency this season. The Jazz are projected to score 102 points tonight, which is markedly higher than their season average of 96.2 points per game.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Lakers)
Record: 12-28
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.8
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 28
Rebounding Differential Rank: 23
Elite Plays
Trey Burke (FD: $6000, DK: $5500 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 21.7)
Burke is right behind Taj Gibson as my favorite play of the night. Since Alec Burks went down with injury, he has seen an uptick in both minutes and usage. Over his last seven games, he is averaging 31 fantasy points in 35 minutes of action per game. Throw in the fact that he is facing the Lakers and we have ourselves a perfect recipe for fantasy production. The Lakers have allowed more fantasy points to point guards than any other team in the NBA this season.
Secondary Plays
Gordon Hayward (FD: $7300, DK: $7700 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 24.7)
Hayward’s price has come down to a very playable level on both FanDuel and DraftKings. This is a unique opportunity to buy low on a player that also has a terrific matchup. While the Lakers are ranked 11th against small forwards this season, I will not avoid any position against a defense as bad as theirs.
Miami at Sacramento – 10:00 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Sacramento -3.5, 196 Over/Under
- Miami Proj. Starters – Napier-Chalmers-Deng-Bosh-Whiteside
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – Collison-McLemore-Williams-Thompson-Cousins
| Miami | Sacramento | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 196 |  | Vegas Total | 196 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.50 | Vegas Sprd | -3.50 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.25 | Team Proj. | 99.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 91.7 | Team Pace | 97.02 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Shabazz Napier | Mario Chalmers | Luol Deng | Chris Bosh | Hassan Whiteside | Proj Starter | Darren Collison | Ben McLemore | Derrick Williams | Jason Thompson | DeMarcus Cousins | |
| Opp. Season | 23 | 28 | 5 | 20 | 25 | Opp. Season | 12 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 13 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 16 | 2 | 12 | 24 | Opp. Last 7 | 16 | 12 | 8 | 18 | 3 | |
Miami
Dwyane Wade did not play on Wednesday night against the Warriors. While there hasn’t been an official update on his status for tonight’s game, I would be surprised to see him in the lineup. If Wade does sit, Mario Chalmers would the biggest beneficiary in his absence. Tonight the Heat face a Kings team that has really struggled defensively. They are ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency this season, giving up an average of 103.8 points per game.
Opponent Breakdown (Sacramento)
Record: 16-22
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.8
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 23
Rebounding Differential Rank: 1
Elite Plays
Mario Chalmers (FD: $5300, DK: $4500 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 19.8)
Chalmers didn’t quite live up to expectations the other night against the Warriors. If we look at it with a glass half-full attitude, it just gives us another chance to target him at such a cheap price point. If Dwyane Wade is out again, Chalmers will see a boost in minutes, usage, and production. Don’t overlook him tonight just because he had a bad game against a very tough Warriors defense.
Secondary Plays
Hassan Whiteside (FD: $5700, DK: $6000 / MPG: 16 / Usage Rate: 19.7)
Whiteside was finally inserted into the starting lineup the other night. He played 29 minutes and finished with 27 fantasy points. He has now scored at least 27 fantasy points in five straight games. He would be an elite play if it weren’t for his matchup against DeMarcus Cousins. Whiteside could easily get into early foul trouble. That said, if you are willing to brave the elements, he does offer great upside at center.
Sacramento
The Kings will likely be without Rudy Gay tonight against the Heat. He is listed as doubtful. They may also be without Omri Casspi, which could mean big minutes for Derrick Williams. Tonight the Kings host a Heat team that plays at one of the slowest paces in the entire NBA. The good news is that the Heat are not great defensively, ranking 24th in efficiency this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Miami)
Record: 17-22
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.6
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 24
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27
Elite Plays
DeMarcus Cousins (FD: $11500, DK: $11300 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 34.1)
To quote the 2010 Heat, Cousins has had not one, not two, not three, well all right it’s three. Cousins has had three straight 60+ fantasy point outings. With Rudy Gay doubtful for tonight’s game against, Cousins will have every opportunity to make it four in a row. His minutes are trending in the right direction and so is his production. The combination of Hassan Whiteside and Chris Andersen will no match for “Boogie” tonight.
Secondary Plays
Darren Collison (FD: $7200, DK: $7100 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 21.2)
Collison should also see an increase in usage with Rudy Gay out. Collison has been a reliable fantasy option all season, but he plays a position that typically has a wealth of options. He doesn’t make my list of top five-point guard plays tonight, but is still worth a look against the Heat.
Cleveland at L.A. Clippers – 10:30 pm EST
- Vegas Line – L.A. Clippers -8.5, 206.5 Over/Under
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Smith-James-Love-Mozgov
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan
| Cleveland | L.A. Clippers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 206.5 |  | Vegas Total | 206.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 8.5 | Vegas Sprd | -8.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99 | Team Proj. | 107.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.45 | Team Pace | 96.34 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kyrie Irving | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Timofey Mozgov | Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Matt Barnes | Blake Griffin | DeAndre Jordan | |
| Opp. Season | 4 | 14 | 14 | 10 | 22 | Opp. Season | 13 | 27 | 27 | 24 | 7 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 22 | 4 | 28 | 23 | Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 24 | 28 | 13 | 26 | |
Cleveland
The Cavaliers picked up a much-needed win over the Lakers last night. They will stay in Los Angeles to take on a much more talented Clippers team tonight. Vegas has the Cavaliers listed as 8.5-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 206 points.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Clippers)
Record: 26-13
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.8
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 16
Rebounding Differential Rank: 18
Elite Plays
LeBron James (FD: $10600, DK: $10700 / MPG: 38 / Usage Rate: 31)
I get the feeling that LeBron is just going to take over this Cavaliers team. He has looked great in his first two games back from his injury and finally has that aggressiveness that we’ve been waiting for. If the Cavaliers are going to have any chance of picking up the upset on the road, it will be on the back of James. Take advantage of his salary before it goes back up over $11,000.
Secondary Plays
J.R. Smith (FD: $6100, DK: $4600 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 23.4)
Smith is too expensive on FanDuel and too cheap on DraftKings. At $4,600, he only needs to score 23 fantasy points to reach value. He is more than capable of that, as he has averaged 27 fantasy points per game over his last four. There aren’t many times where you can target a player that has both low risk and high reward.
L.A. Clippers
Opponent Breakdown (Cleveland)
Record: 20-20
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.2
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 26
Rebounding Differential Rank: 13
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Blake Griffin (FD: $9800, DK: $9700 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 29.7)
I love targeting power forwards against the Cavaliers. Kevin Love is not a great defender and the Cavaliers have no elite shot blockers at the rim. We saw what Markieff Morris did to the Cavs the other night and Griffin should be able to find the same kind of success. The Cavaliers have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to centers this season.
Chris Paul (FD: $10000, DK: $9700 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 22.7)
Anytime you can target Chris Paul for $10,000 or less in a game that is expected to be high-scoring, you should at least take note of it. The Clippers are projected to score 107.5 points tonight, which is one of the highest team totals on the board. As long as this game doesn’t turn into a blowout, Paul has a good chance to post another 50+ fantasy point outing.