NBA Grind Down: Friday, January 16th - Page Two
Atlanta at Toronto – 7:30 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -1, 208 Over/Under
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas
| Atlanta | Toronto | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 208 |  | Vegas Total | 208 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -1.0 | Vegas Sprd | 1.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 104.50 | Team Proj. | 103.50 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.32 | Team Pace | 96.16 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | DeMarre Carroll | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | Terrence Ross | Amir Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opp. Season | 16 | 12 | 24 | 9 | 12 | Opp. Season | 10 | 16 | 17 | 11 | 6 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 7 | 13 | 8 | 13 | Opp. Last 7 | 22 | 14 | 14 | 6 | 5 | |
Atlanta
The Hawks have rested some of their starters in each of their last two games, but should be at full strength for tonight’s game against the Raptors. This will be a battle between two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. The Hawks do draw a fantasy-friendly matchup, but they are a very deep team when everyone is in the lineup. This should be a great game to watch, but it may not be a game that you want a ton of exposure to.
Opponent Breakdown (Toronto)
Record: 26-12
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.4
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 22
Rebounding Differential Rank: 17
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Jeff Teague (FD: $8300, DK: $8500 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 24.7)
Teague has put together an impressive nine-game stretch, averaging 21 points, 4 rebounds, and 8 assists per game. During that period, he has scored at least 37 fantasy points in every game but one. His price has started to reflect his recent level of production, but he remains in play as long as he continues to produce. He draws a favorable matchup against the Raptors, who are ranked 16th against point guards this season.
Toronto
The Raptors have lost six of their last ten games, but finally have DeMar DeRozan back in the lineup. While he should help make this team even better, he hurts the fantasy appeal of quite a few players. You can argue that his presence in the lineup hurts the value of Kyle Lowry, James Johnson, Terrence Ross, and Lou Williams. The combination of DeRozan being back and the Raptors’ tough matchup against the Hawks is enough for me to avoid this team altogether.
Opponent Breakdown (Atlanta)
Record: 31-8
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.7
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 5
Rebounding Differential Rank: 20
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Golden State at Oklahoma City – 8:00 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Golden State -2.5, 214.5 Over/Under
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Speights
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Roberson-Durant-Ibaka-Adams
| Golden State | Oklahoma City | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 214.5 |  | Vegas Total | 214.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -2.50 | Vegas Sprd | 2.50 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 108.5 | Team Proj. | 106 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 100.48 | Team Pace | 96.57 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Marreese Speights | Proj Starter | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Kevin Durant | Serge Ibaka | Steven Adams | |
| Opp. Season | 27 | 7 | 13 | 17 | 4 | Opp. Season | 8 | 13 | 6 | 14 | 21 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 30 | 5 | 27 | 10 | Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 16 | |
Golden State
Greg Popovich has started a trend in the NBA. Teams are now resting starters on a regular basis. The Warriors have decided to rest Andrew Bogut and Andre Iguodala tonight against the Thunder. This gives a small fantasy boost to Marreese Speights and Harrison Barnes.
This game features one of the highest totals of the night. The Warriors are one-point favorites against the Thunder in what should be a fast-paced, high scoring affair. The Thunder are ranked in the top ten in terms of defensive efficiency, but the expected pace of the game outweighs the tough matchup.
Opponent Breakdown (Oklahoma City)
Record: 18-20
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.3
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 8
Rebounding Differential Rank: 2
Elite Plays
Stephen Curry (FD: $10500, DK: $10200 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 27.8)
The total for this game is set at 215 points, which is the third-highest total on the board. It’s also expected to be very competitive, which means Curry will likely play 35-38 minutes, which is a considerable difference from his season average. Curry draws a favorable matchup against Russell Westbrook and the Thunder, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to point guards this season. I have Curry ranked slightly ahead of Westbrook, although both are in play tonight.
Secondary Plays
Draymond Green (FD: $7800, DK: $8100 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 17.1)
Green is one of the most underrated players in the NBA, both in terms of real basketball and fantasy basketball. He is a rare power forward that can fill up all areas of the stat sheet. On the season, he is averaging 12 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists, 1.5 blocks, and 1.5 steals per game. His minutes have been down recently, but that has more to do with the blowouts than anyone cutting into his minutes.
Oklahoma City
The last time these two teams met up, the Thunder were run out of the gym. They lost by 26 points in a game that was over by half-time. This time around should be different, as the game will be played in Oklahoma City. The Warriors are an elite defensive team, but again, the expected pace of play outweighs the tough matchup.
Opponent Breakdown (Golden State)
Record: 31-5
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.1
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 1
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16
Elite Plays
Kevin Durant (FD: $10700, DK: $10700 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 31.3)
The first time these two teams met, Durant had racked up 30 points before halftime. He eventually hurt his ankle and had to miss the rest of the game. Given his level of production over the last couple of seasons, Durant still seems a bit under-priced on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He’s an elite play on both sites and fills a position (small forward) that lacks many options.
Secondary Plays
Russell Westbrook (FD: $10700, DK: $10000 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 38.7)
Westbrook is a better play on DraftKings than he is on FanDuel. Not only is he $700 cheaper, but he is also a frequent visitor to the double-double bonus. His production has been down recently, but I’m expecting a big performance from him tonight in what should be one of the highest scoring games on the schedule. He will likely have a low level of ownership tonight, making him a terrific play in tournaments.
Denver at Dallas – 8:30 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Dallas -8, 215 Over/Under
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Afflalo-Chandler-Faried-Nurkic
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Rondo-Ellis-Parsons-Nowitzki-Chandler
| Denver | Dallas | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 215 |  | Vegas Total | 215 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 8 | Vegas Sprd | -8 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 103.5 | Team Proj. | 111.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.83 | Team Pace | 97.29 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | Arron Afflalo | Wilson Chandler | Kenneth Faried | Jusuf Nurkic | Proj Starter | Rajon Rondo | Monta Ellis | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | |
| Opp. Season | 28 | 5 | 20 | 8 | 14 | Opp. Season | 14 | 23 | 15 | 23 | 28 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 4 | 22 | 25 | 29 | Opp. Last 7 | 17 | 1 | 26 | 1 | 30 | |
Denver
The Nuggets cruised to a victory over the Mavericks in Denver the other night, but the Mavericks were without three of their best players. Tonight’s game should be a much different story. The Nuggets are 8-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 216 points. The good news is that this is a great matchup for potential fantasy production. The Mavericks have allowed opponents to score an average of 102.8 points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Dallas)
Record: 27-13
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.8
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 18
Rebounding Differential Rank: 28
Elite Plays
Ty Lawson (FD: $9100, DK: $9000 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 21.4)
Lawson torched the Mavericks the other night with 29 points, 5 rebounds, and 12 assists. Granted, the Mavericks were playing short-handed, but if anything, Lawson actually has a more favorable matchup with Rajon in the lineup. The Mavericks have allowed the third-most fantasy points to point guards this season. The Nuggets are going to need another big outing from him if they have any chance of beating the Mavericks back-to-back.
J.J. Hickson (FD: $4500, DK: $4500 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 20.3)
Hickson does not start, but he has seen an uptick in minutes since the Timofey Mozgov trade. Over his last four games, he is averaging 27 fantasy points in 27 minutes per game. His price is still very affordable and he draws a favorable matchup against the Mavericks. Even if this game turns into a blowout, Hickson’s minutes should still be secure.
Secondary Plays
Wilson Chandler (FD: $5800, DK: $5600 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 20.5)
Chandler also played well against the Mavericks the other night. He finished the game with 15 points, 10 rebounds, and 6 assists. That was the most active we have seen Chandler in a couple of weeks. Tonight is a perfect opportunity to buy low on him, as he is listed under $6,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Dallas
The Mavericks should have all their starters back in the lineup tonight. Rajon Rondo, Dirk Nowitzki, and Tyson Chandler all got Wednesday night off to rest, but all three are expected to start tonight. The Mavericks draw one of the best matchups on the board. The Nuggets are one of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA and they have given up an average of 103.7 points per game to their opponents.
Opponent Breakdown (Denver)
Record: 18-20
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.7
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 20
Rebounding Differential Rank: 6
Elite Plays
Dirk Nowitzki (FD: $6900, DK: $6600 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 26.5)
Nowitzki got Wednesday night off to rest, but will be back in the starting lineup tonight. A little bit of rest never hurt anyone, especially when you have as many miles on your body as Dirk does. He draws a favorable matchup against the Nuggets, who have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to power forwards this season. Nowitzki also has a very high usage rate (26.5), which is often overlooked by most DFS’ers.
Secondary Plays
Tyson Chandler (FD: $7100, DK: $6400 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 13.2)
Chandler will also be back in the lineup tonight. He did roll his ankle against the Kings on Tuesday night, but that doesn’t appear to be an issue. Chandler should be able to dominate the paint tonight against a Nuggets defense that hasn’t played well on the interior in years. The Nuggets are ranked 28th against centers this season, making Chandler a sneaky play at center.
Portland at San Antonio – 8:30 pm EST
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -4.5, 199 Over/Under
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Kaman
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter
| Portland | San Antonio | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | 199 | ||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | Vegas Sprd | -4.50 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.25 | Team Proj. | 101.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.57 | Team Pace | 95.59 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | Wesley Matthews | Nicolas Batum | LaMarcus Aldridge | Chris Kaman | Proj Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | Tim Duncan | Tiago Splitter | |
| Opp. Season | 9 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 18 | Opp. Season | 18 | 10 | 9 | 2 | 9 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 20 | Opp. Last 7 | 9 | 17 | 7 | 7 | 22 | |
Portland
The Blazers head to San Antonio to take on the defending champion Spurs. This is not the best fantasy matchup on the board, but the Spurs do have a knack of sending games into overtime. The Spurs are ranked sixth in defensive efficiency this season, holding opponents to an average of 98.3 points per game. I’m not going to be paying a premium for Damian Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge in a tough matchup against the Spurs.
Opponent Breakdown (San Antonio)
Record: 24-16
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.3
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 6
Rebounding Differential Rank: 12
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Chris Kaman (FD: $4900, DK: $4700 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 25.5)
This may be the last night that we can target Kaman at this price point. Not only is he in the starting lineup, but he’s finally seeing a starter’s complement of minutes. He has played at least 27 minutes in three of his last five games. He has scored at least 24 fantasy point in four of those five outings. While the matchup against the Spurs isn’t ideal, he only needs to score around 25 fantasy points to reach value. He is certainly capable of that now that he is in the starting lineup.
San Antonio
The Spurs are hoping to have Kawhi Leonard back for tonight’s game against the Blazers. He made it through practice yesterday and is listed as probable. The Spurs could certainly use him, as they have dropped down to the seventh seed in the Western Conference standings. The Spurs are a deep team that draws a tough matchup against the Blazers. There aren’t any fantasy options that stand out in this one.
Opponent Breakdown (Portland)
Record: 30-9
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.5
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Rebounding Differential Rank: 9
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Tim Duncan (FD: $8300, DK: $8700 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 24.3)
The first time these two teams met up this season, Duncan finished with 32 points, 10 rebounds, 3 assists, and 4 blocks. Granted, the game went into overtime, but that’s still an impressive stat line. He isn’t my favorite play at power forward, but could make for an intriguing contrarian play in tournaments.
Minnesota at Phoenix – 9:00 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Phoenix -14, 216.5 Over/Under
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Williams-Wiggins-Budinger-Young-Dieng
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Dragic-Bledsoe-Tucker-Morris-Len
| Minnesota | Phoenix | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 216 |  | Vegas Total | 216 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 14.0 | Vegas Sprd | -14.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101.3 | Team Proj. | 115.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.45 | Team Pace | 99.14 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Mo Williams | Andrew Wiggins | Chase Budinger | Thaddeus Young | Gorgui Dieng | Proj Starter | Goran Dragic | Eric Bledsoe | P.J. Tucker | Markieff Morris | Alex Len | |
| Opp. Season | 7 | 19 | 22 | 7 | 24 | Opp. Season | 29 | 24 | 30 | 27 | 29 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 18 | 29 | 22 | 4 | Opp. Last 7 | 24 | 23 | 17 | 9 | 17 | |
Minnesota
How about the game that Mo Williams had the other night against the Pacers? He set a franchise record with 52 points and dropped a 60-burger in fantasy. Tonight the Wolves head to Phoenix to take on the Suns. Vegas has the Wolves listed as 14-point underdogs here. This one could turn into a blowout, but this is still a favorable matchup for the Wolves.
Opponent Breakdown (Phoenix)
Record: 23-18
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.9
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 18
Rebounding Differential Rank: 24
Elite Plays
Andrew Wiggins (FD: $7300, DK: $6900 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 22)
Wiggins is seeing Jimmy Butler type of minutes. He has played at least 36 minutes in each of his last eight games. Not only is he playing all of the minutes that he can handle, but his usage rate should go up while Shabazz Muhammad is out with his injury. Wiggins has both a high floor and a high ceiling, making him a good target in all league formats.
Mo Williams (FD: $6200, DK: $5800 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 22.8)
Before the game against the Pacers, Williams was averaging around 11 points per game. He has been productive as a starter all season, but no one could have predicted a 52-point outburst. Luckily, he was a feature in the Grind Down and on my cash game lineups. While I don’t like to chase points in DFS, Williams is worth a look again tonight. He is averaging close to 30 fantasy points per game as a starter this season.
Secondary Plays
None
Phoenix
The Suns draw one of the best matchup on the board tonight. The Wolves are ranked dead last in defensive efficiency this season. They also play at a quick pace and give up an average of 108.1 points per game to their opponents. The only concern here is a potential blowout. The Suns are 14-point favorites in a game that could be in hand by the end of the third quarter.
Opponent Breakdown (Minnesota)
Record: 6-31
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.1
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 30
Rebounding Differential Rank: 24
Elite Plays
Markieff Morris (FD: $6900, DK: $6600 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 22.8)
Eric Bledsoe draws a great matchup tonight, but given the potential blowout, I don’t want to pay up for him at shooting guard. Instead, I’ll be targeting the mid to low-range players from the Suns tonight. Morris is coming off of his best game in over a month. He finished with 35 points and 7 rebounds against the Cavaliers. Tonight he draws a very favorable matchup against the Wolves, who have allowed fourth-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards this season. The Wolves are also ranked 24th in rebounding differential.
Secondary Plays
P.J. Tucker (FD: $4700, DK: $4300 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 12.6)
Looking for a value play at small forward tonight? Tucker is an interesting option. He doesn’t have as much upside as K.J. McDaniels, but he’s considerably cheaper than him on DraftKings. Tucker has scored at least 21 fantasy points in seven of his last ten games and draws a favorable matchup against the Wolves.
Alex Len (FD: $5200, DK: $4600 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 13.5)
Len has had a terrific five-game stretch, averaging 10 points, 10 rebounds, and 3 blocks per game. He has also seen a slight uptick in minutes over that stretch, averaging 30 per game. He makes a good value play at center against the Wolves, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points to centers this season.