NBA Grind Down: Friday, January 23rd
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
Toronto at Philadelphia – 7:00 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Toronto -11.5, 196 Over/Under
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-McDaniels-Covington-Noel-Sims
| Toronto | Philadelphia | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 196 |  | Vegas Total | 196 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -11.5 | Vegas Sprd | 11.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 103.8 | Team Proj. | 92.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.92 | Team Pace | 98.58 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | Terrence Ross | Amir Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | Proj Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | K.J. McDaniels | Robert Covington | Nerlens Noel | Henry Sims | |
| Opp. Season | 24 | 30 | 29 | 30 | 30 | Opp. Season | 15 | 9 | 22 | 8 | 15 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 20 | 25 | 23 | 12 | 23 | Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 22 | |
Toronto
The Raptors have surprisingly lost seven of their last ten games. However, they are still locked into the third seed in the Eastern Conference and should be in for a fairly easy win tonight. Vegas has the Raptors listed as 11.5-point favorites against the Sixers. This is a terrific matchup to target, but this game does have the potential to turn into a blowout.
Opponent Breakdown (Philadelphia)
Record: 8-34
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.6
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 30
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
DeMar DeRozan (FD: $7000, DK: $6600 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 28.1)
There is really only one fantasy option that stands out on the Raptors tonight. DeRozan has struggled in his last two games, scoring a combined 20 fantasy points. He should be able to bounce back nicely against the slump-busting 76ers, who have allowed more fantasy points to shooting guards than any other team in the NBA this season.
Philadelphia
The Sixers are dealing with numerous injuries right now. Tony Wroten has already been ruled out of tonight’s game against the Raptors. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and Henry Sims are both listed as questionable. All of the injuries don’t bode well for their chances of picking up a win against one of the best teams in the East. The good news is that they are facing a Raptors team that is ranked 20th in defensive efficiency, allowing their opponents to score an average of 100.9 points per game.
Opponent Breakdown (Toronto)
Record: 27-15
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.9
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 20
Rebounding Differential Rank: 17
Elite Plays
Michael Carter-Williams (FD: $8500, DK: $8500 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 28.2)
With Tony Wroten out, MCW will continue to have a very high usage rate in this offense. He has scored at least 43 fantasy points in three of his last five games and has the ability to contribute in all columns of the stat sheet. He draws a decent matchup against the much smaller Kyle Lowry. If the Sixers have any chance of competing in this game, it will be on the back of Carter-Williams.
Secondary Plays
Robert Covington, K.J. McDaniels, and Nerlens Noel may all see extended playing time tonight with all of the injuries to the Sixers. They all make decent value plays against the Raptors.
Oklahoma City at Atlanta – 7:30 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -4.5, 208.5 Over/Under
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Roberson-Durant-Ibaka-Adams
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
| Oklahoma City | Atlanta | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 208.5 |  | Vegas Total | 208.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.0 | Team Proj. | 106.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.11 | Team Pace | 96.17 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Kevin Durant | Serge Ibaka | Steven Adams | Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | DeMarre Carroll | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | |
| Opp. Season | 10 | 14 | 15 | 11 | 6 | Opp. Season | 25 | 15 | 10 | 18 | 4 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 5 | 12 | 15 | 1 | Opp. Last 7 | 16 | 24 | 11 | 19 | 5 | |
Oklahoma City
The Thunder have turned a corner and they are not looking back. They have won four in a row and seven of their last ten games. Tonight they head to Atlanta to take on the red-hot Hawks. Vegas has the Thunder listed as 4.5-point underdogs here, but I’m predicting the Hawks 14-game winning streak to come to an end tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Atlanta)
Record: 35-8
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.1
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Rebounding Differential Rank: 23
Elite Plays
Kevin Durant (FD: $10800, DK: $10600 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 29.3)
As long as Durant is listed under $11,000 on FanDuel and DraftKings, he will continue to be a staple in my lineups. He appears to be 100% over his injury and is playing his best basketball of the season. He has scored at least 46 fantasy points in five of his last six games. He is as matchup-proof as you will find in the NBA and he should be locked and loaded for another big fantasy outing tonight.
Secondary Plays
Russell Westbrook (FD: $10700, DK: $10200 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 36.9)
Westbrook doesn’t have as high of a floor as Kevin Durant, but his ceiling is just as high. We have seen him crack the 60 fantasy point mark on a few occasions this season. His matchup against Jeff Teague isn’t ideal, but this game is expected to be close and high-scoring. Those are two favorable traits that we look for in daily fantasy basketball.
Atlanta
The Hawks have won 14 games in a row. They have finally garnered some national attention, but will really turn some heads if they can take down the Thunder tonight. While the Thunder are ranked eighth in defensive efficiency this season, they play at an extremely fast pace when Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are both in the lineup.
Opponent Breakdown (Oklahoma City)
Record: 22-20
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.6
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 8
Rebounding Differential Rank: 2
Elite Plays
Jeff Teague (FD: $8200, DK: $8200 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 25)
Teague has been one of the main reasons why the Hawks have been able to win 14 games in a row. He is playing his best basketball of the season, scoring at least 37 fantasy points in eight of his last ten games. Tonight he draws a favorable matchup against Russell Westbrook and the Thunder, who have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to point guards this season. He may also see closer to 35 minutes of action, as this game is expected to be close throughout.
Secondary Plays
Al Horford (FD: $7800, DK: $7200 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 22.4)
Horford doesn’t get enough love from the DFS community. He has now scored at least 33 fantasy points in EACH of his last seven games. He draws a tough matchup against Steven Adams, but Horford’s ability to fill up the stat sheet helps offset that. He makes a great contrarian play in tournaments tonight.
Charlotte at Cleveland – 7:30 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -9.5, 194.5 Over/Under
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-Zeller-Biyombo
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Smith-James-Love-Mozgov
| Charlotte | Cleveland | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 194.5 |  | Vegas Total | 194.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 9.5 | Vegas Sprd | -9.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 92.5 | Team Proj. | 102.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.00 | Team Pace | 94.50 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kemba Walker | Gerald Henderson | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Cody Zeller | Bismack Biyombo | Proj Starter | Kyrie Irving | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Timofey Mozgov | |
| Opp. Season | 12 | 26 | 23 | 21 | 12 | Opp. Season | 9 | 17 | 2 | 12 | 7 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 10 | 14 | 5 | 11 | 27 | Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 13 | 11 | |
Charlotte
The Hornets are one of the worst teams to target right now in daily fantasy basketball. They are healthy for the first time in months, which really hurts the fantasy appeal of the individual players. If you remember back to the start of the season, they were basically an easy team to avoid every night that they were on the schedule. Even in a favorable matchup against the Cavaliers, it’s safe to avoid all Hornets tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Cleveland)
Record: 23-20
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.3
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 26
Rebounding Differential Rank: 13
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Cleveland
The Cavaliers have won four games in a row and are quickly making up ground in the Eastern Conference. Tonight they host the Hornets in a game that does have the potential to turn into a blowout. The Cavaliers are 9.5-point favorites and have won their last four games by an average of 10 points each. LeBron James would be in play on a smaller slate, but I’d much rather target Kevin Durant at the same price point.
Opponent Breakdown (Charlotte)
Record: 18-25
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.3
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 8
Rebounding Differential Rank: 10
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
J.R. Smith (FD: $6000, DK: $5000 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 22.3)
Is Smith the main reason for the Cavs winning streak? Of course not, but he has played well since joining the team. He is coming off of a productive five-game stretch, where he has averaged 29 fantasy points in 35 minutes of action per game. He is still affordable on DraftKings and the Hornets are ranked 17th against shooting guards this season. Smith may see a decrease in production with Iman Shumpert due back soon, but I’m not expecting Shumpert to see big minutes if he suits up tonight.
Indiana at Miami – 7:30 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Miami -4, 184 Over/Under
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Stuckey-Hill-West-Hibbert
- Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Wade-Deng-Bosh-Andersen
| Indiana | Miami | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 184 |  | Vegas Total | 184 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.0 | Vegas Sprd | -4.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 90.0 | Team Proj. | 94.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.65 | Team Pace | 91.59 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | George Hill | Rodney Stuckey | Solomon Hill | David West | Roy Hibbert | Proj Starter | Mario Chalmers | Dwyane Wade | Luol Deng | Chris Bosh | Chris Andersen | |
| Opp. Season | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 11 | Opp. Season | 20 | 28 | 5 | 3 | 8 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 1 | 27 | 2 | 12 | Opp. Last 7 | 19 | 19 | 13 | 7 | 20 | |
Indiana
This is one of those games, where even DFS can’t make it entertaining. It will be a battle between two slow-paced teams that have both held their opponents to 97 points per game this season. The total is set at only 184 points, which is easily the lowest on the board tonight. George Hill will be back in the lineup for the Pacers, but that only muddies the point guard picture even more. With ten other games on the schedule, the Pacers will not find themselves in any of my lineups.
Opponent Breakdown (Miami)
Record: 18-24
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.7
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 21
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Miami
The Heat are in the same boat as the Pacers. They will be stuck in a slow-paced game against a good defensive team. On the season, the Pacers are ranked 10th in defensive efficiency and 3rd in rebounding differential. Luol Deng is expected to return to the lineup tonight, but Dwyane Wade (illness) and Hassan Whiteside (ankle) are both questionable.
Opponent Breakdown (Indiana)
Record: 15-29
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.3
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 10
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
If Dwyane Wade is forced to sit out tonight, Mario Chalmers would see a major uptick in usage.
Orlando at New York – 7:30 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Orlando -2, 206 Over/Under
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Payton-Oladipo-Marble-Frye-Vucevic
- New York Proj. Starters – Calderon-Galloway-Anthony-Smith-Amundson
| Orlando | New York | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 206.0 |  | Vegas Total | 206.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -2.0 | Vegas Sprd | 2.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 104.0 | Team Proj. | 102.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.05 | Team Pace | 92.64 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Elfrid Payton | Victor Oladipo | Devyn Marble | Channing Frye | Nikola Vucevic | Proj Starter | Jose Calderon | Langston Galloway | Carmelo Anthony | Jason Smith | Louis Amundson | |
| Opp. Season | 23 | 29 | 3 | 5 | 20 | Opp. Season | 28 | 3 | 26 | 24 | 29 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 30 | 13 | 16 | 3 | 18 | Opp. Last 7 | 29 | 6 | 29 | 30 | 28 | |
Orlando
All of the sudden, the Magic have turned into one of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA. Over their last five games, they have averaged 110.8 points per game. They have given up a ton of points during that stretch, but we will touch on that when we get to the Knicks. Tonight’s game is expected to be close and high scoring, two traits that we love to see in daily fantasy. The Knicks are ranked 29th in defensive efficiency this season, allowing opponents to score an average of 101.2 points per game.
Opponent Breakdown (New York)
Record: 7-36
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.2
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 29
Rebounding Differential Rank: 29
Elite Plays
Victor Oladipo (FD: $7200, DK: $6900 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 24)
Oladipo has one of the best names in the NBA, or at least it’s one of my personal favorites. He has been outstanding over his last six games, averaging 38 fantasy points per game. His usage will likely go down a bit now that Tobias Harris is back in the mix, but it sounds like Harris will come off the bench again tonight. Oladipo draws a favorable matchup against the Knicks, who have allowed the third-most fantasy points to shooting guards this season.
Secondary Plays
Nikola Vucevic (FD: $8900, DK: $8700 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 25.4)
If Tobias Harris comes off the bench again tonight, that will boost Vucevic’s fantasy outlook, as he has a much higher usage rate when Harris is not on the floor. Vucevic has scored at least 45 fantasy points in four of his last six games and draws a favorable matchup against the revolving door that is the Knicks’ frontcourt. Center is an unusually thin position tonight as well.
Elfrid Payton (FD: $5900, DK: $5400 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 18.5)
Payton is one of my favorite tournament plays tonight. He plays at a position that typically has a ton of viable options, which means his level of ownership will be very low. He is playing his best basketball of the season, averaging 33 fantasy points in 35 minutes of action per game over his last five. He draws a favorable matchup against Jose Calderon and the Knicks and is a candidate to reach 6x-7x salary.
New York
The Knicks have a chance to win their third game in a row tonight, as they host the Orlando Magic. The Knicks are listed as two-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 206 points. As I mentioned above, the Magic have turned into a fast-paced team recently and it has taken a toll on the defensive end of the floor. Over their last five games, the Magic have allowed their opponents to score an average of 118 points per game.
Opponent Breakdown (Orlando)
Record: 15-30
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.3
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 22
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27
Elite Plays
Langston Galloway (FD: $4600, DK: $4100 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 21.8)
I have Galloway ranked as the top point guard play on both FanDuel and DraftKings tonight. In his two starts, he has averaged 31 fantasy points per game and he’s shown an ability to fill up all areas of the stat sheet. He’s a great rebounder for a guard and should see 30+ minutes of action tonight against a Magic team whose defense was last seen on the side of a milk carton.
Secondary Plays
Carmelo Anthony (FD: $9600, DK: $8900 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 32)
Anthony’s price is a little higher than I’d like to pay for in cash games, but his favorable matchup against the Magic puts him in play. The Magic have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to small forwards this season and we all know the type of upside that Anthony offers.