NBA Grind Down: Friday, January 23rd - Page Two
Chicago at Dallas – 8:00 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Dallas -7, 206 Over/Under
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Rose-Hinrich-Butler-Gibson-Gasol
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Rondo-Ellis-Parsons-Nowitzki-Chandler
| Chicago | Dallas | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 206 |  | Vegas Total | 206 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.0 | Vegas Sprd | -7.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.50 | Team Proj. | 106.50 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.9 | Team Pace | 97.04 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Derrick Rose | Kirk Hinrich | Jimmy Butler | Taj Gibson | Pau Gasol | Proj Starter | Rajon Rondo | Monta Ellis | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | |
| Opp. Season | 26 | 4 | 17 | 9 | 10 | Opp. Season | 19 | 5 | 25 | 27 | 14 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 26 | 6 | Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 26 | 9 | 23 | 26 | |
Chicago
The Bulls picked up a much-needed win against the Spurs last night. Tonight they will look to make it two in a row as they head to Dallas to take on the Mavericks. Joakim Noah has been upgraded from doubtful to questionable and Mike Dunleavy also has a questionable tag next to his name. If Noah is able to suit up tonight, Taj Gibson would go back to his role off the bench. It would also cut into the minutes/production of Pau Gasol.
Opponent Breakdown (Dallas)
Record: 30-13
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.7
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 13
Rebounding Differential Rank: 26
Elite Plays
Derrick Rose (FD: $7200, DK: $7300 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 31.1)
Rose is finally starting to attack the basket. In his MVP season, he was averaging more points in the paint and far fewer three-pointers. We saw a glimpse of the MVP-Rose last night against the Spurs. If Rose can continue to stay aggressive offensively, we are going to see a lot more production out of him in the second half of the season. He draws a premier matchup against Rajon Rondo and the Mavericks and all playing-time restrictions have been lifted. This may be our last opportunity to target him at this price point.
Secondary Plays
If Joakim Noah is ruled out, Taj Gibson would become a near must-start against the Mavericks. It would also bring Pau Gasol back into play.
Dallas
The Mavericks have won seven of their last ten games and are currently fourth in the Western Conference standings. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Bulls, whose play on the defensive end of the floor has really slipped in the last couple of weeks. The big issue with the Mavericks is how well-balanced they are offensively. It makes predicting individual production difficult on a nightly basis.
Opponent Breakdown (Chicago)
Record: 28-16
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.3
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 12
Rebounding Differential Rank: 6
Elite Plays
Tyson Chandler (FD: $6900, DK: $6200 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 12.9)
Center is a tough position to fill tonight. For my money, Chandler is right up there as one of the top plays at the position. His price is down on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he has scored at least 29 fantasy points in seven of his last nine games. The most encouraging sign is the fact that he has averaged 34 minutes per game during that stretch.
Secondary Plays
Dirk Nowitzki (FD: $7000, DK: $6400 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 26.4)
It’s hard to argue that anyone has been more consistent than Nowitzki this season. He has scored at least 25 fantasy points in each of his last eight games and rarely has a bad fantasy outing. He doesn’t have an extremely high ceiling, but he does provide a high floor, which makes him a safe target in cash games. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Bulls, who have allowed the 4th most fantasy points to power forwards this season.
New Orleans at Minnesota – 8:00 pm EST
- Vegas Line – New Orleans -7, 204 Over/Under
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Evans-Gordon-Cunningham-Davis-Asik
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Williams-Wiggins-Hummel-Young-Dieng
| New Orleans | Minnesota | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 204 |  | Vegas Total | 204 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -7.00 | Vegas Sprd | 7.00 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 105.5 | Team Proj. | 98.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.47 | Team Pace | 98.07 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Tyreke Evans | Eric Gordon | Dante Cunningham | Anthony Davis | Omer Asik | Proj Starter | Mo Williams | Andrew Wiggins | Robbie Hummel | Thaddeus Young | Gorgui Dieng | |
| Opp. Season | 29 | 24 | 30 | 25 | 28 | Opp. Season | 18 | 16 | 20 | 10 | 13 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 24 | 22 | 17 | 14 | 10 | Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 20 | 15 | 6 | 13 | |
New Orleans
The Pelicans draw one of the more favorable matchups in tonight’s slate of games. They are facing a T-Wolves team that is ranked dead last in both defensive efficiency and points allowed per game this season. If the T-Wolves can keep this game competitive, this game could be a gold mine for fantasy production. The Pelicans are projected to score 105.5 points tonight, which is markedly higher than their season average.
Opponent Breakdown (Minnesota)
Record: 7-34
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.8
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 30
Rebounding Differential Rank: 25
Elite Plays
Tyreke Evans (FD: $7500, DK: $8300 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 26.3)
With Jrue Holiday out, Evans will draw another start at point guard tonight. In his last five starts, Evans is averaging 19 points, 6 rebounds, and 5 assists per game. He already had an insanely high usage rate before the Holiday injury and it’s only going to get higher as the starting point guard. All signs point to a big outing against the T-Wolves, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points to the point guard position this season.
Eric Gordon (FD: $5400, DK: $5500 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 18.3)
Gordon has also stepped up in Jrue Holiday’s absence. Over his last five games, he is averaging 16 points, 4 rebounds, and 6 assists per game. His price on FanDuel and DraftKings has yet to reflect his recent level of production, making him a top option at shooting guard tonight. He draws a terrific matchup against the Wolves, who have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to shooting guards this season.
Secondary Plays
Anthony Davis (FD: $11200, DK: $11100 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 26.3)
Davis showed no signs of rust in his first game back from injury. He posted a cool 51 fantasy points in 37 minutes of action against the Lakers. Tonight he faces a T-Wolves team that is ranked 25th in rebounding differential. The Wolves are also ranked 25th against power forwards. Davis should be considered one of the top overall fantasy options tonight. The only reason he is listed as a secondary play is his hefty price tag.
Minnesota
The T-Wolves are expecting Nikola Pekovic to play again tonight, but Ricky Rubio and Kevin Martin have both already been ruled out. That gives Mo Williams and Andrew Wiggins at least one more game where they will be the focal points of the offense. Tonight’s matchup against the Pelicans is a favorable one. The Pelicans are ranked 25th in defensive efficiency this season, allowing their opponents to score an average of 100 points per game.
Opponent Breakdown (New Orleans)
Record: 21-21
Points Allowed Per Game: 100
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 25
Rebounding Differential Rank: 6
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Andrew Wiggins and Mo Williams are both fine secondary plays tonight. Both should continue to have a high usage rate in the absence of Ricky Rubio and Kevin Martin.
L.A. Lakers at San Antonio – 8:30 pm EST
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -13.5, 195.5 Over/Under
- L.A. Lakers Proj. Starters – Price-Ellington-Johnson-Davis-Hill
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter
| L.A. Lakers | San Antonio | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 195.5 |  | Vegas Total | 195.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 13.5 | Vegas Sprd | -13.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 91 | Team Proj. | 104.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.26 | Team Pace | 95.59 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ronnie Price | Wayne Ellington | Wesley Johnson | Ed Davis | Jordan Hill | Proj Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | Tim Duncan | Tiago Splitter | |
| Opp. Season | 7 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 19 | Opp. Season | 30 | 19 | 11 | 14 | 26 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 24 | 15 | Opp. Last 7 | 22 | 29 | 20 | 10 | 7 | |
L.A. Lakers
The Lakers are going to be without Kobe Bryant for the foreseeable future, possibly even for the rest of the season. He has a torn rotator cuff in his right shoulder. It’s gone from bad to worse in Los Angeles. Tonight they head to San Antonio to take on the Spurs, who are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. Vegas has the Lakers listed as 13.5-point underdogs for a reason.
Opponent Breakdown (San Antonio)
Record: 27-17
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.8
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 6
Rebounding Differential Rank: 10
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Wesley Johnson, Wayne Ellington, and Nick Young should all see a fantasy boost with Kobe Bryant out. This is not an ideal matchup, but all three are decent tournament plays against the Spurs.
San Antonio
We have to be careful with the Spurs tonight. Not only are they playing in the second half of a back-to-back, but they are 13.5-point favorites at home against the Lakers. We generally like to avoid the Spurs players in back-to-backs or potential blowouts. This game grades out as a ten on the “Spurs-avoidance scale”. On an 11-game slate, I will be avoiding all Spurs tonight, unless Coach Popovich decides to rest some of his veterans.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Lakers)
Record: 12-31
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.5
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 28
Rebounding Differential Rank: 21
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Boston at Denver – 9:00 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Denver -9, 209 Over/Under
- Boston Proj. Starters – Turner-Bradley-Crowder-Sullinger-Bass
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Afflalo-Chandler-Faried-Nurkic
| Boston | Denver | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 209 |  | Vegas Total | 209 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 9.00 | Vegas Sprd | -9.00 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100 | Team Proj. | 109 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.12 | Team Pace | 98.75 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Evan Turner | Avery Bradley | Jae Crowder | Jared Sullinger | Brandon Bass | Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | Arron Afflalo | Wilson Chandler | Kenneth Faried | Jusuf Nurkic | |
| Opp. Season | 16 | 27 | 18 | 26 | 27 | Opp. Season | 27 | 2 | 21 | 28 | 22 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 17 | 28 | 25 | 27 | 9 | Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 17 | 1 | 22 | 30 | |
Boston
The Celtics picked up an impressive win over the Blazers last night on a game-winning three-point shot from Evan Turner. They will look to make it back-to-back road wins tonight in Denver. Vegas has the Celtics listed as nine-point underdogs, but the good news is that there will be little to no defense played by either team. The Nuggets have allowed their opponents to score an average of 104.4 points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Denver)
Record: 18-24
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.4
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 22
Rebounding Differential Rank: 8
Elite Plays
Brandon Bass (FD: $4100, DK: $3300 / MPG: 19 / Usage Rate: 22.5)
Bass received a rare start last night against the Blazers. He rewarded Coach Stevens for the decision by putting up an impressive stat line of 13 points, 10 rebounds, and 5 assists. His strong play will likely earn him another start tonight against the Nuggets, who have a long history of struggling to defend the paint. Bass will also see a small fantasy boost if Kelly Olynyk sits out. He sprained his ankle last night and was seen leaving the arena in crutches.
Secondary Plays
Jared Sullinger (FD: $6600, DK: $6600 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 22.3)
Once again, it’s never a bad idea to target big men against the Nuggets. On the season, the Nuggets are ranked 26th and 27th in fantasy points allowed to power forwards and centers. Sullinger should also see a small fantasy boost if Kelly Olynyk is unable to play.
Denver
The Nuggets have lost four games in a row and are quickly falling out of playoff contention in the West. They have a good chance to end their four-game slide tonight against the Celtics though. The Celtics have really struggled on the road this season (5-13) and Vegas is expecting the Nuggets to pick up an easy win here. One situation that we need to monitor is the availability of Ty Lawson. He was arrested for a DUI early this morning and may face punishment from the league and/or the Nuggets.
Opponent Breakdown (Boston)
Record: 14-26
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.8
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 19
Rebounding Differential Rank: 18
Elite Plays
TBD – If Ty Lawson is suspended for tonight’s game, Jameer Nelson would likely step into the starting lineup. He would immediately become one of the top value plays on the board. Arron Afflalo would also see a small fantasy boost in Lawson’s absence.
Secondary Plays
J.J. Hickson (FD: $4500, DK: $5200 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 20.5)
Kenneth Faried is questionable with an illness tonight and Jusuf Nurkic is playing through some nagging injuries. Even if both play tonight, Hickson should see 25+ minutes against a Celtics defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to power forwards this season.
Houston at Phoenix – 9:00 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Phoenix -2, 220 Over/Under
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Motiejunas-Howard
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Dragic-Bledsoe-Tucker-Morris-Len
| Houston | Phoenix | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 220 |  | Vegas Total | 220 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 2.0 | Vegas Sprd | -2.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 109.0 | Team Proj. | 111.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.48 | Team Pace | 99.18 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Donatas Motiejunas | Dwight Howard | Proj Starter | Goran Dragic | Eric Bledsoe | P.J. Tucker | Markieff Morris | Alen Len | |
| Opp. Season | 8 | 18 | 27 | 7 | 23 | Opp. Season | 2 | 22 | 16 | 20 | 18 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 21 | 22 | 17 | 8 | Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 30 | 18 | 28 | 14 | |
Houston
The Rockets travel to Phoenix to take on the Suns in a game that has the highest total on the board tonight. Not only is the total set at 220 points, but the Suns are only two-point favorites. We can expect this to be a close, high-scoring affair. There are quite a few options on the Rockets tonight, but only three really stand out at their respective positions.
Opponent Breakdown (Phoenix)
Record: 26-18
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.8
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 17
Rebounding Differential Rank: 24
Elite Plays
James Harden (FD: $11100, DK: $10800 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 31.4)
Harden is dealing with a minor knee injury, but is expected to play tonight against the Suns. Targeting Harden in what is expected to be the highest scoring game of the night is never a bad idea. He has one of the highest usage rates in the entire NBA and has 50 fantasy point upside every time he steps out onto the floor. He draws a favorable matchup against the Suns, who are ranked 18th in fantasy points allowed to shooting guards this season.
Dwight Howard (FD: $8100, DK: $7800 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 23.1)
It’s been a while since Howard has made an appearance in any of my cash game lineups. I may have to dust off my dancing shoes for tonight’s special occasion. Howard draws a premier matchup against the Suns, who have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to centers this season. The Suns are also ranked 24th in rebounding differential, making Howard a lock for a double-double tonight.
Secondary Plays
Trevor Ariza (FD: $5200, DK: $5600 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 16.8)
Small forward is a very thin position tonight. Outside of Durant, there aren’t many great options. Ariza deserves strong consideration for cash games though, as he is a good bet to play 30+ minutes in a game that has the highest total of the night. Ariza also draws a favorable matchup against the Suns, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to small forwards this season. At his price point, he should be able to reach value with ease.
Phoenix
The Suns are clinging to the final spot in the Western Conference playoff picture, but the Thunder are right on their tail. The Suns need to win to keep pace. While the Rockets do have one of the best defenses in the NBA in terms of efficiency, the pace of this game will be fast enough to offset that. The Suns are projected to score 111 points tonight, which is four points higher than their season average. Eric Bledsoe and Isaiah Thomas are both in play tonight, but both are better suited as tournament plays.
Opponent Breakdown (Houston)
Record: 29-14
Points Allowed Per Game: 99
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 4
Rebounding Differential Rank: 9
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Goran Dragic (FD: $7000, DK: $6800 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 21.6)
The Dragic play is based on the assumption that the Rockets will put their pesky defender, Patrick Beverley, on Eric Bledsoe. If that’s the case, Dragic will be matched up against James Harden. I like his chances in that matchup. He’s affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings and offers great upside in a game where the Suns are projected to score 111 points.
P.J. Tucker (FD: $4800, DK: $4200 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 12.1)
Tucker is a viable value play at small forward tonight. He has scored at least 20 fantasy points in five of his last six games. He also draws a favorable matchup against the Rockets, who are ranked 16th against small forwards this season.