NBA Grind Down: Friday, January 30th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
Minnesota at Philadelphia – 7:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Minnesota -3.5, 192.5 Over/Under
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Williams-Wiggins-Young-Dieng-Pekovic
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Sampson-Covington-Mbah a Moute-Noel
| Minnesota | Philadelphia | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 192 |  | Vegas Total | 192 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -3.5 | Vegas Sprd | 3.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.0 | Team Proj. | 94.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.80 | Team Pace | 98.15 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Mo Williams | Andrew Wiggins | Thaddeus Young | Gorgui Dieng | Nikola Pekovic | Proj Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | Jakarr Sampson | Robert Covington | Luc Mbah a Moute | Nerlens Noel | |
| Opp. Season | 21 | 30 | 24 | 30 | 30 | Opp. Season | 28 | 26 | 28 | 27 | 27 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 30 | 21 | Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 25 | 9 | 25 | 10 | |
Minnesota
The Wolves travel to Philadelphia to take on the Sixers in what should be a fast-paced game between two of the worst teams in the NBA. There will be very little defense played in this one, which could provide us with a wealth of viable fantasy options. The Sixers are one of the fastest-paced teams in the league. They are also ranked 22nd in points allowed per game and 30th in rebounding differential. The starting point guard of the Timberwolves will be in play tonight. As of right now, it’s unclear if that will be Mo Williams or Zach LaVine.
Opponent Breakdown (Philadelphia)
Record: 9-37
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.5 (Rank: 22)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 13
Rebounding Differential Rank: 30
Elite Plays
Thaddeus Young (FD: $6800, DK: $6600 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 22.2)
Young has flourished in his new role as the T-Wolves’ starting small forward. Over his last three games, he has averaged 20 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 assists per game. The most promising statistic is his playing time. He has played at least 40 minutes in each of those three games. Tonight he draws a favorable matchup against the Sixers, who have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards this season. And lest I forget, this is also a revenge game for Thad.
Secondary Plays
Gorgui Dieng (FD: $7100, DK: $7000 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 15.3)
This is a game that I could see Dieng dominating. He is a terrific rebounder and a great shot blocker, which bodes well for his matchup. The Sixers are the worst rebounding team in the NBA and they have allowed the sixth-most blocks per game to their opponents. Dieng has also scored at least 36 fantasy points in three of his last four games.
Kevin Martin (FD: $6500, DK: $4600 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 26.6)
Martin is a DraftKings’ special tonight at only $4,600. Even though he came off the bench in his first game back from injury, he was not limited as he played 29 minutes and scored 25 fantasy points. He should get plenty of open looks tonight against Sixers, who have allowed more fantasy points to shooting guards than any other team in the NBA this season.
Philadelphia
The Sixers have lost eight of their last ten games, but have a good chance of picking up their tenth win of the season, as they host the T-Wolves. Minnesota is only 4-19 on the road and Vegas is projecting this game to be close. In terms of the matchup, this is a favorable one. The Wolves are ranked dead last in both defensive efficiency and points allowed per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Minnesota)
Record: 8-37
Points Allowed Per Game: 107 (Rank: 30)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 30
Rebounding Differential Rank: 22
Elite Plays
Michael Carter-Williams (FD: $8500, DK: $8200 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 27.8)
MCW is coming off of an impressive outing against the Pistons, in which he had 14 points, 9 rebounds, and 10 assists. He will continue to have a very high usage rate in this offense with Tony Wroten sidelined. Regardless of who starts at point guard for the T-Wolves, MCW will have a favorable matchup. He’s one of the top tournament plays on the board and he deserves cash game consideration as well.
Secondary Plays
Nerlens Noel (FD: $5700, DK: $5000 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 16.1)
Consistency has been an issue for Noel, but he has scored at least 28 fantasy points in five of his last eight outings. His price is still very reasonable, especially on DraftKings. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the T-Wolves, who are ranked 27th against both power forwards and centers this season.
Robert Covington (FD: $5600, DK: $5200 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 20.1)
As shocking as it sounds, small forward is by far the thinnest position tonight (Editor’s note: We need a sarcasm font.). There really aren’t any standout options, which means we will likely see a lot of players with low to mid ownership levels. One option (on FD at least) is Covington. He has scored at least 29 fantasy points in three of his last five games.
Portland at Atlanta – 7:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -7, 203 Over/Under
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Kaman
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
| Portland | Atlanta | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203 |  | Vegas Total | 203 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.0 | Vegas Sprd | -7.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.0 | Team Proj. | 105.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.60 | Team Pace | 96.04 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | Wesley Matthews | Nicolas Batum | LaMarcus Aldrdige | Chris Kaman | Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | DeMarre Carroll | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | |
| Opp. Season | 13 | 13 | 15 | 11 | 5 | Opp. Season | 27 | 10 | 13 | 2 | 7 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 24 | 3 | 17 | 20 | 7 | Opp. Last 7 | 30 | 2 | 16 | 13 | 5 | |
Portland
This game does not have a ton of fantasy appeal. The Blazers and Hawks are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA. The Hawks are ranked fourth in defensive efficiency and first in points allowed per game at only 96.3. The total for this game is set at 203 points, but it’s still a below average matchup for both teams. Damian Lillard may be worth a look in tournaments, as the Hawks have struggled to contain point guards recently.
Opponent Breakdown (Atlanta)
Record: 38-8
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.3 (Rank: 1)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 4
Rebounding Differential Rank: 21
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
LaMarcus Aldridge (FD: $9900, DK: $9500 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 29.8)
Even though Aldridge had 38 points and 11 rebounds against the Cavaliers on Wednesday night, he was out-shined by Kyrie Irving’s 55-point explosion. The takeaway from that game is that Aldridge’s thumb injury does not seem to be hampering his production. He is the one Blazers player that I would consider tonight, as he’ll have a decent size advantage over Paul Millsap.
Atlanta
The Hawks continue to do what they do best, and that’s win basketball games. They have won 17 in a row and are creeping up to the Warriors for the best record in the NBA. While they are the hottest team in basketball, they are not a great source of fantasy production. They are well-balanced offensively and use their stifling defense to slow down opponents. Their matchup against the Blazers is not a favorable one, as Portland has held their opponents to the fifth-fewest points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Portland)
Record: 32-14
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.2 (Rank: 5)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 4
Rebounding Differential Rank: 14
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Jeff Teague (FD: $7900, DK: $7600 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 25.2)
Teague has cooled off after his hot stretch during at the end of December and the beginning of January. His price has also cooled off and he is now listed under $8,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He draws a favorable matchup tonight. The Blazers have struggled against point guards, allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to the position.
Houston at Boston – 7:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Houston -6.5, 205.5 Over/Under
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Motiejunas-Dorsey
- Boston Proj. Starters – Turner-Bradley-Crowder-Bass-Sullinger
| Houston | Boston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 205.5 |  | Vegas Total | 205.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -6.5 | Vegas Sprd | 6.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 106.0 | Team Proj. | 99.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.61 | Team Pace | 98.99 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Donatas Motiejunas | Joey Dorsey | Proj Starter | Evan Turner | Avery Bradley | Jae Crowder | Brandon Bass | Jared Sullinger | |
| Opp. Season | 24 | 2 | 19 | 29 | 23 | Opp. Season | 2 | 22 | 16 | 22 | 15 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 26 | 10 | 17 | 25 | Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 28 | 11 | 22 | 9 | |
Houston
The Rockets are expected to be without Dwight Howard again tonight. Joey Dorsey will start in his place, while Donatas Motiejunas and Josh Smith will also see an uptick in minutes. The Rockets draw a favorable matchup against the uptempo Celtics, who have allowed the sixth-most points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Boston)
Record: 16-28
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.7 (Rank: 25)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 17
Rebounding Differential Rank: 19
Elite Plays
James Harden (FD: $11200, DK: $11000 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 31.4)
With Howard out tonight, we will see another episode of the Late Night Show with James Harden. He has been unstoppable in his last five games, as he has averaged 33 points, 4 rebounds, and 7 assists per contest. He will draw the coverage of Avery Bradley tonight, but Harden is about as matchup-proof as they come in the NBA. His increased usage with Howard out more than makes up for the tough individual matchup. The Celtics also lack a rim protector, so Harden should be able to attack the basket at will.
Donatas Motiejunas (FD: $5400, DK: $5300 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 18.3)
Howard being out is also good news for Motiejunas, who may see an uptick in both minutes and production. He has been a very reliable fantasy option recently, scoring at least 23 fantasy points in nine of his last ten games. He also draws a friendly matchup against the small frontcourt of the Celtics, who are ranked 29th against power forwards and 23rd against centers. Don’t be surprised if the Rockets play a lot of small ball with Motiejunas at center.
Secondary Plays
Trevor Ariza (FD: $5200, DK: $5500 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 16.9)
It can be a little unnerving targeting Ariza in cash games, but it’s a risk that we may have to take tonight. There are very few options at small forward and Ariza should see a small boost with Howard out. He has scored at least 20 fantasy points in seven of his last ten games and draws favorable matchup against the Celtics.
Boston
Despite a 16-28 record, the Celtics are still only two games out of the eighth seed in the East. They are listed as 6.5-point underdogs against the Rockets, who have been very good defensively this season. They are ranked second in defensive efficiency, holding their opponents to an average of 98.9 points per game. I’m not overly excited about this matchup, but the Celtics’ frontcourt provides a couple of appealing options.
Opponent Breakdown (Houston)
Record: 32-14
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.9 (Rank: 12)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Rebounding Differential Rank: 11
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Jared Sullinger (FD: $6700, DK: $6600 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 22.9)
Sullinger is typically a player that has an ownership level under 10%, which is a bit surprising to me. Over his last ten games, he has averaged 31 fantasy points per game. He has also scored at least 25 fantasy points in every single game during that stretch. Once again, he makes for an appealing contrarian play tonight against the Rockets.
Brandon Bass (FD: $5000, DK: $5200 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 21.9)
Expecting Bass to continue at his blistering pace was a little silly. He has cooled off in his last two starts, which could have been expected. While that’s a bit concerning, he’s still a starting power forward that is listed around $5,000. He has averaged 26 fantasy points per game over his last six and should put up a similar outing tonight against the Rockets.
Sacramento at Cleveland – 7:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -6, 204 Over/Under
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – Collison-McLemore-Gay-Thompson-Cousins
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Smith-Marion-Love-Mozgov
| Sacramento | Cleveland | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 204 |  | Vegas Total | 204 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 6.0 | Vegas Sprd | -6.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.0 | Team Proj. | 105.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.28 | Team Pace | 94.55 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Darren Collison | Ben McLemore | Rudy Gay | Jason Thompson | DeMarcus Cousins | Proj Starter | Kyrie Irving | J.R. Smith | Shawn Marion | Kevin Love | Timofey Mozgov | |
| Opp. Season | 11 | 23 | 29 | 19 | 14 | Opp. Season | 22 | 29 | 9 | 18 | 28 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 4 | 27 | 16 | 18 | Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 30 | 26 | 21 | 27 | |
Sacramento
The Kings may be without DeMarcus Cousins tonight. He is currently questionable, as he is dealing with an ankle injury. If he is forced to sit out, Darren Collison and Rudy Gay would both see an uptick in usage. Tonight’s matchup against the Cavaliers is a favorable one. The Cavaliers are missing their best defender in LeBron James and have allowed their opponents to score an average of 99.8 points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Cleveland)
Record: 27-20
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.8 (Rank: 16)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 25
Rebounding Differential Rank: 10
Elite Plays
Rudy Gay (FD: $7800, DK: $7700 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 26.4)
If Cousins is forced to sit out tonight, Gay would become the go-to player in the Kings’ offense. Even if Cousins does play, Gay is still worth a look at his depressed price point. On the season, he is averaging 20 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assists per game. He should be able to post a similar stat line tonight against a LeBron-less Cavaliers’ team.
Secondary Plays
Darren Collison (FD: $6700, DK: $6500 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 21)
Collison would also see a small fantasy boost if Cousins is unable to suit up. His price is depressed and he draws a favorable matchup against Kyrie Irving and the Cavaliers. While he may not have the upside that we look for in tournaments, he does have a high floor, making him a safe cash game play.
Cleveland
The Cavaliers are expected to be without LeBron James tonight. Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love, J.R. Smith, and Iman Shumpert should all see an uptick in production with James out of the lineup. The Cavaliers draw a fantasy-friendly matchup against the Kings, who have allowed the fourth-most points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Sacramento)
Record: 16-28
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.6 (Rank: 27)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 26
Rebounding Differential Rank: 1
Elite Plays
Kyrie Irving (FD: $9500, DK: $9000 / MPG: 38 / Usage Rate: 25.4)
We typically don’t like to chase points in daily fantasy sports, but that’s not really the case with Irivng tonight. While he is coming off of a 55-point outing against the Blazers, the reason that he’s such a great play tonight is because his usage rate will go up drastically with LeBron James out of the lineup. We should see the 2013-14 version of Irving tonight against the Kings, who have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to point guards this season.
Secondary Plays
J.R. Smith (FD: $5600, DK: $5000 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 21.8)
Smith should also see a sizable fantasy boost with LeBron out of the lineup tonight. He has really played well recently, as he has averaged 25 fantasy points per game over his last nine. He should be able to post a similar outing tonight against the Kings, who have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to shooting guards this season.
Toronto at Brooklyn – 7:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Toronto -7, 197.5 Over/Under
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-Vasquez-DeRozan-Johnson-Valanciunas
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Jack-Anderson-Johnson-Garnett-Plumlee
| Toronto | Brooklyn | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 197.5 |  | Vegas Total | 197.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -7.0 | Vegas Sprd | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.3 | Team Proj. | 95.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.90 | Team Pace | 94.34 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | Greivis Vasquez | DeMar DeRozan | Amir Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | Proj Starter | Jarrett Jack | Alan Anderson | Joe Johnson | Kevin Garnett | Mason Plumlee | |
| Opp. Season | 20 | 24 | 6 | 24 | 6 | Opp. Season | 18 | 8 | 21 | 7 | 12 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 29 | 27 | 18 | 29 | 26 | Opp. Last 7 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 11 | |
Toronto
The Raptors have won four in a row and will be looking to make it five tonight against the Nets. Vegas has the Raptors listed as seven-point favorites in a game that features a total of 197.5 points. Overall, this is a fairly mediocre matchup. The Nets are basically ranked right around the league average in both defensive efficiency and points allowed per game. The Raptors have a very deep team, which is why there is only one option that stands out against the Nets.
Opponent Breakdown (Brooklyn)
Record: 18-27
Points Allowed Per Game: 99 (Rank: 13)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 18
Rebounding Differential Rank: 24
Elite Plays
DeMar DeRozan (FD: $6800, DK: $6900 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 28)
After struggling for a few games in a row, DeRozan has bounced back nicely. He has averaged 34 fantasy points per game during that stretch. He has one of the highest usage rates in the NBA, which is always something that we like to see in daily fantasy basketball. This may be the last opportunity to take DeRozan at a price point under $7,000.
Secondary Plays
None
Brooklyn
The Nets have lost eight of their last ten games and do not look like a team that is fighting for their playoff lives. Deron Williams has already been ruled out for tonight’s game against the Raptors, which means Jarrett Jack will continue to see all of the playing time that he can handle. Their matchup against the Raptors is a favorable one, but the Nets are risky fantasy options given the way they have played over the last couple of weeks.
Opponent Breakdown (Toronto)
Record: 31-15
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.6 (Rank: 20)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 19
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Jarrett Jack (FD: $7000, DK: $6200 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 21.5)
Jack may be a little too expensive on FanDuel, but he’s sitting at a very playable $6,200 on DraftKings. He has really played well recently, scoring at least 32 fantasy points in four of his last five games. He also draws a decent matchup against Kyle Lowry and the Raptors, who are ranked 18th against point guards this season.
Joe Johnson (FD: $6000, DK: $5700 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 22.5)
Tonight is another opporutnity to buy low on the former All-Star. His price is at one of its lowest points of the season and he draws a favorable matchup against the uptempo Raptors. Johnson has scored at least 28 fantasy points in three of his last five games and only needs around 30 to meet value expectations tonight.