NBA Grind Down: Friday, January 30th - Page Two
L.A. Clippers at New Orleans – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – L.A. Clippers -6.5, 201 Over/Under
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Crawford-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Evans-Gordon-Cunningham-Davis-Asik
| L.A. Clippers | New Orleans | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 201 |  | Vegas Total | 201 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -6.5 | Vegas Sprd | 6.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 103.75 | Team Proj. | 97.25 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.21 | Team Pace | 94.12 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Chris Paul | Jamal Crawford | Matt Barnes | Blake Griffin | DeAndre Jordan | Proj Starter | Tyreke Evans | Eric Gordon | Dante Cunningham | Anthony Davis | Omer Asik | |
| Opp. Season | 15 | 16 | 14 | 9 | 13 | Opp. Season | 4 | 15 | 11 | 16 | 19 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 12 | 5 | 15 | 16 | Opp. Last 7 | 10 | 16 | 15 | 11 | 15 | |
L.A. Clippers
The Clippers are looking for their seventh win in a row tonight, as they head to New Orleans to take on the Pelicans. Vegas has the Clippers listed as 6.5-point favorites in a game that features a total of 201 points. The Pelicans have not been great defensively this season, but their slow pace has allowed them to rank right around the league average in points allowed per game.
J.J. Redick is currently listed as questionable for tonight’s game. If he is unable to suit up, Jamal Crawford would see a sizable fantasy boost. Blake Griffin is not listed below, but if Anthony Davis is ruled out of tonight’s game, he would see a sizable boost as well. Ryan Anderson is not nearly as capable of a defender.
Opponent Breakdown (New Orleans)
Record: 24-22
Points Allowed Per Game: 99 (Rank: 13)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 22
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Chris Paul (FD: $9700, DK: $9400 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 22.4)
Paul will match up against Tyreke Evans tonight. The way I see it, that’s a huge mismatch for Paul to exploit. He is much quicker than Evans and the Clippers should run a clinic with their pick and roll. Paul is fairly priced across the industry and has 50 fantasy point upside every time he takes the floor.
New Orleans
The Pelicans may be without Anthony Davis tonight. He is currently listed as questionable, as he is dealing with two different injuries. If he is forced to sit out, Tyreke Evans, Eric Gordon, and Ryan Anderson would all see a major uptick in usage. The Pelicans’ matchup against the Clippers is average at best. The Clippers are ranked 14th in defensive efficiency and 18th in rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Clippers)
Record: 32-14
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.8 (Rank: 16)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 14
Rebounding Differential Rank: 18
Elite Plays
None – …unless Anthony Davis is ruled out. If he is, Eric Gordon, Tyreke Evans, and Ryan Anderson all deserve consideration as elite plays.
Editor’s Note: Anthony Davis has been ruled out for tonight’s game.
Secondary Plays
Eric Gordon (FD: $5700, DK: $5900 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 18.3)
Gordon is coming off of an awful shooting performance against the Nuggets, but he still managed to score 27 fantasy points. His usage rate has gone up with Jrue Holiday out of the lineup and he has become much more than strictly a scorer. Gordon draws a favorable matchup against the Clippers, who he used to play for a few years ago.
Dallas at Miami – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Dallas -8.5, 190.5 Over/Under
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Rondo-Ellis-Parsons-Nowitzki-Chandler
- Miami Proj. Starters – Cole-Chalmers-Granger-Bosh-Whiteside
| Dallas | Miami | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 190.5 |  | Vegas Total | 190.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -8.50 | Vegas Sprd | 8.50 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.5 | Team Proj. | 91 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.77 | Team Pace | 91.78 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Rajon Rondo | Monta Ellis | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | Proj Starter | Norris Cole | Mario Chalmers | Danny Granger | Chris Bosh | Hassan Whiteside | |
| Opp. Season | 14 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 9 | Opp. Season | 23 | 7 | 20 | 13 | 11 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 18 | 10 | 2 | 18 | 1 | Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 24 | 21 | 23 | 13 | |
Dallas
The Mavericks have my least favorite matchup on the board tonight. Not only are they facing the slowest-paced team in the NBA, but they are 8.5-point favorites as well. This will likely be a low-scoring game that has the potential to turn into a blowout. Chandler Parsons and Monta Ellis are both decent plays against the Wade and Deng-less Heat, but neither are stand out plays at their respective positions.
Opponent Breakdown (Miami)
Record: 20-25
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.4 (Rank: 2)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 21
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Miami
The Heat are expected to be without both Dwyane Wade and Luol Deng tonight. There are quite a few players that see a boost in their absence, including: Chris Bosh, Mario Chalmers, Danny Granger, and Norris Cole. The Heat are large underdogs tonight, but they do draw a fantasy-friendly matchup against the Mavericks. The Mavericks are ranked 23rd in points allowed per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Dallas)
Record: 30-17
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.9 (Rank: 23)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 28
Elite Plays
Hassan Whiteside (FD: $6200, DK: $6400 / MPG: 17 / Usage Rate: 20.1)
After that incredible triple-double in 25 minutes of action, Whiteside put together another solid fantasy outing with 37 fantasy points against the Bucks. He has averaged 1.34 fantasy points per minute this season and should reach value with ease if he sees 30+ minutes of playing time again tonight. Dollar for dollar, he is my top play at center tonight.
Mario Chalmers (FD: $5400, DK: $4800 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 19.5)
Chalmers is a very sneaky play tonight at point guard. He hasn’t filled in for Wade all that well recently, but had some huge outings in his absence earlier this season. It sounds like the Heat may start Norris Cole at point guard, which actually helps Chalmers’ value, as Cole plays off the ball more than Napier. Chalmers should see a nice boost in both minutes and usage tonight against the uptempo Mavericks.
Secondary Plays
None
Golden State at Utah – 9:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Golden State -10, 205 Over/Under
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
- Utah Proj. Starters – Exum-Ingles-Hayward-Favors-Kanter
| Golden State | Utah | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 205 |  | Vegas Total | 205 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -10 | Vegas Sprd | 10 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 107.5 | Team Proj. | 97.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 101.28 | Team Pace | 92.75 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | Proj Starter | Dante Exum | Joe Ingles | Gordon Hayward | Derrick Favors | Enes Kanter | |
| Opp. Season | 9 | 20 | 10 | 15 | 2 | Opp. Season | 12 | 9 | 8 | 17 | 21 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 20 | 12 | 3 | 4 | Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 1 | 24 | 19 | 30 | |
Golden State
The Warriors had their winning streak snapped by the Bulls the other night, but will look to start a new one tonight against the Jazz. The Warriors are listed as 9.5-point favorites in a game that features a total of 205 points. This is a game that has few viable fantasy options. The Jazz are one of the slowest-paced teams in the NBA and this game does have the potential to turn into a blowout. Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green are all decent tournament plays, but there are better values at each of their respective positions.
Opponent Breakdown (Utah)
Record: 16-30
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.4 (Rank: 10)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 27
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Utah
The Jazz have lost seven of their last ten games and now have to face the Warriors, who own the best record in the NBA. The Warriors are ranked first in defensive efficiency and the Jazz are huge underdogs. This is not a matchup that I want to have very much, if any exposure to tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Golden State)
Record: 36-7
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.6 (Rank: 15)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 1
Rebounding Differential Rank: 17
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Chicago at Phoenix – 10:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Phoenix -5, 210.5 Over/Under
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Rose-Hinrich-Butler-Gasol-Noah
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Dragic-Bledsoe-Tucker-Morris-Len
| Chicago | Phoenix | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 210.5 |  | Vegas Total | 210.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.00 | Vegas Sprd | -5.00 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.75 | Team Proj. | 107.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.87 | Team Pace | 99.21 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Derrick Rose | Kirk Hinrich | Jimmy Butler | Pau Gasol | Joakim Noah | Proj Starter | Goran Dragic | Eric Bledsoe | P.J. Tucker | Markieff Morris | Alex Len | |
| Opp. Season | 10 | 17 | 25 | 8 | 22 | Opp. Season | 17 | 4 | 23 | 23 | 17 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 25 | 23 | 8 | 27 | 19 | Opp. Last 7 | 9 | 19 | 13 | 10 | 29 | |
Chicago
The Bulls are playing their playing their third game in four nights. If that wasn’t awful enough, they are also coming off of back-to-back double overtime games. They will likely be playing on tired legs tonight against the Suns. While most coaches would give their role players extended action in these situations, I’m not expecting that from Coach Thibadeau. He runs his starters ragged and I’m expecting them to see their usual complement of minutes tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Phoenix)
Record: 27-20
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.1 (Rank: 28)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 19
Rebounding Differential Rank: 24
Elite Plays
Derrick Rose (FD: $7200, DK: $7800 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 31.5)
Rose doesn’t have great assist numbers for a point guard, but as long as he keeps attacking the rim, I will continue targeting him at this price point. Rose is playing his best basketball of the season, averaging 34 fantasy points per game over his last nine outings. He draws a favorable matchup against the uptempo Suns in what should be a very high-scoring game. As mentioned above, I do not expect Coach Thibs to limit his starter’s minutes tonight.
Secondary Plays
Pau Gasol (FD: $9500, DK: $9400 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 23.9)
Gasol continues to post quality outing after quality outing. He had another big game last night against the Lakers with 20 points, 10 rebounds, 6 assists, and 4 blocks. He can fill up all areas of the stat sheet and I like his matchup against the smaller Markieff Morris tonight.
Joakim Noah (FD: $6500, DK: $6400 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 14.4)
Noah has scored a combined 92 fantasy points in his last two games. Granted, both went into double-overtime, but he’s at least starting to produce at a much higher level than the one we have seen from him this season. His price is still depressed, giving us at least one more opportunity to take him in the $6,400-$6,500 range.
Phoenix
A typical matchup against the Bulls isn’t one that we go out of our way to target, but the Bulls are going to be playing on tired legs tonight. The first thing to go when you are playing tired is your defense. The Suns are projected to score 108 points tonight, which is one of the highest team totals on the board. While I do like their matchup, I’m not a huge fan of their rotation. They have one of the best benches in the NBA that can take over a game at any point. Markieff Morris, Eric Bledsoe, and Goran Dragic are all decent tournament plays, but none will find their way into my cash game lineups.
Opponent Breakdown (Chicago)
Record: 30-18
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.9 (Rank: 18)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 12
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None